We are coming up on the semi-centennial anniversary of Moore’s law, a prediction in 1965 by Intel founder Gordon Moore that the number of transistors on an (economical) integrated circuit would continue to double every 12 months until at least 1975, at which point he revised the rate of “circuit density-doubling” to 24 months. The prediction has held up rather well since then. But with all due respect to its remarkable longevity and massive impact on technology, the many physical limitations to transistor scaling at smaller nodes have led many to conclude the famous axiom is on borrowed time. Intel, however, looks determined to soldier on with Moore’s law beyond the 10nm node.
In a 1965 paper, Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore predicted that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double approximately every two years. This prediction has proven to be uncannily accurate over the years and has come to be known as Moore’s Law. But it’s not going to hold true forever, is it? Well, it’s believed that like all things good, Moore’s Law too will come to an end one day. The question that remains, though, is when. Noted theoretical (and often theatrical) physicist Michio Kaku feels he has the answer.