In a 1965 paper, Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore predicted that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double approximately every two years. This prediction has proven to be uncannily accurate over the years and has come to be known as Moore’s Law. But it’s not going to hold true forever, is it? Well, it’s believed that like all things good, Moore’s Law too will come to an end one day. The question that remains, though, is when. Noted theoretical (and often theatrical) physicist Michio Kaku feels he has the answer.
Kaku believes the days of Moore’s Law are numbered, and foresees its demise in around 10 years or so. Like many others, he feels it’s becoming increasingly difficult for us to sustain this exponential growth using just traditional silicon-based computing. According to the theoretical physicist, who is a co-founder of the string field theory, even three-dimensional chips like the ones recently introduced by Intel aren’t going to be of much help due to problems like leakage and heat.
“So, what’s beyond silicon?” Kaku asks in a recent BigThink.com video. “There have been a number of proposals: protein computers, DNA computers, optical computers, quantum computers, molecular computers.”
“If I were to put money on the table, I would say that in the next ten years we’ll simply tweak Moore’s Law a bit with chip-like computers in three dimensions, but beyond that we may have to go to molecular computers and perhaps late in the 21st century quantum computers.”