Just how big could the $200 Kindle Fire be when it launches next month? Pretty friggin’ big. Not “Bigger than the iPad” big – at least not yet – but some sales forecasts and thought-provoking, yet unofficial calculations by an Android developer show that the Fire and its custom Android 2.3 interface could own a bigger slice of the market pie than all Android Honeycomb tablets combined before the end of the year.
First, the easy part: an analyst from Rodman & Renshaw told CNET yesterday that record preorders for the Kindle could very well leave Amazon with over 5 million of the tablets shipped by the end of the year – and that’s not even counting the other, cheaper versions. Sales are expected to increase even more once the Fire actually hits the streets on November 15th.
Then, there’s Honeycomb tablets. A dev by the name of Al Sutton did some quick math and came up with some interesting numbers after hearing Google head Larry Page say that there are 190 million Android devices out there in the wild, a number Page threw down in yesterday’s earnings calls with investors. Engadget reports that Sutton checked the Android Developers website, which shows that only 1.8 percent of all Android gadgets that have tapped into the Android Marketplace in the past two weeks run Honeycomb. Running the numbers, that boils down to approximately 3.42 million tablets running Honeycomb . Of course, two-weeks isn’t the largest sampling frame, but the calculation is food for thought, nonetheless.
And the iPad? The same CNET article says Apple pushes 12 million of the tablets every quarter. So what do you guys think? Will the Kindle Fire’s low price point push it past Android Honeycomb’s limited sales success in the tablet market?