Extreme Analysis: Android, iOS Will Kill the PC

Paul Lilly

Before anyone hops straight to the comments section with virtual pitchforks and torches aimed in our direction, bear in mind we're not saying Android or iOS will kill the PC, and quite frankly, we think any talk of a post PC era is a bunch of nonsense. But there are some who think the PC is dying, and at least one analyst who envisions mobile platforms dealing the death blow.

Horace Dediu, the guy in charge of Asymco, a company that sells software development and consulting services for companies interested in deploying mobile applications, threw a whole bunch of numbers and graphs into a blog post and came to the conclusion that PCs might be in trouble, depending on your perspective. By his own admission, it's an extremist view, but one he felt compelled to share nonetheless.

"If iOS and Android are added as potential substitutions for personal computing, the share of PCs suddenly collapses to less than 50 percent," Dediu explains. "It also suggests much more collapse to come.

"I will concede that this last view is extremist. It does not reflect a competition that exists in real life. However, I put this data together to show a historic pattern. Sometimes extremism is a better point of view than conservatism. Ignoring this view is very harmful as these not-good-enough computers will surely get better. A competitor that has no strategy to deal with this shift is likely to suffer the fate of those companies in the left side of the chart. Treating the first share chart as reality is surely much more dangerous than contemplating the third."

You really have to read the full text to put the above statement in context, but basically he attempts to analyze "The Rise and Fall of Personal Computing," the title of his blog post.

What's your take on all this? Will smartphones and other mobile devices doom the PC?

Image Credit: droidforums.net (dgstorm)

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