Xbox Exec: Blu-ray Living on Borrowed Time

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kate59588

But some blu ray discs we must have. like Avatar, UP, Braveheart, the wizard of oz, ect.

Everything about enjoy blu ray movies leisurely

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RRRoamer

Isn't this the same guy that once predicted that "no computer would ever need more than 640k of memory?" 

I think all know how well THAT predition turned out...

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Taz0

No, it isn't.

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Axel011

Well looks like someone is a little bit bitter as for losing out to the blu ray player

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thesmilies

Microsoft has no right to say this until they let us start connecting TB+ drives to our xboxes to store our media.

 

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Ashton2091

Blu Ray ain't going anywhere soon. It may not be around as long as DVD because formats are changing faster like everything else. But borrowed time? What format is it borrowing time from? It can't be digital content. I mean with less than 50% of America having high speed internet. So what format is it borrowing it from? Nothing right now. Of course it will be outlived to a new format that will support 2160p, but that will be a while from now. Digital Content won't be a primary media until internet speeds in America become faster and more people can afford the internet. I mean fast enough to stream 2160p which is the next format.

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Slugbait

"... with less than 50% of America having high speed internet..."

This. But numerous studies have pointed out that narrow-band customers in areas that offer broadband options have no desire to switch, regardless of affordability...they get their mail, throw a couple of IMs, map a trip, shut down. They are perfectly happy with the coffee break during connect time.

And many countries would love to be just "less than 50%", but they have to settle for less than 2%, while Entertainment is a global commodity. Where would they get their movies?

Distributed wireless? With everybody booting up and logging on, where is the bandwidth reliability?

In addition, your phone won't come close to supplying your high-def content to your HT for another generation or two. And just like the Far-East has already done, many people in the US are starting to consider their phone as their primary Internet device...

DVD is going to survive much longer in the high-def world than VHS survived in the DVD world. Blu-Ray content is still too cost-prohibitive, and after four full years it's a wonder why prices haven't started coming down yet. And with a mind-boggling slow release of content to choose from (currently 4137 BD movies vs. 86344 DVD movies at BB), Blu-Ray won't become a standard anytime soon.

Now that the Master Key is known, they need new protection. But they'll probably only be able to achieve that with a new format.

So yeah, physical media is likely to stick around for a very long time...

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Ashton2091

Very well said. I just don't see the bluray on borrowed time. BluRay won't be a standard until the players come down the the price of current DVD players and the same for the media. Now, there are a few movies that you can get for around 10-15 bucks which is reasonable. But for the most part they are pretty expensive. Now, I remember when DVD was introduced, the players and media were mad expensive. But that was a different time. It became a standard because we had no other options. Now, we do have other options. Even still BluRay will be around for a while simply because no matter what format people are using, a lot of people prefer to have a hard copy of what they bought. Some don't care, but most do. Now as far as the Master Key, I could be wrong, but I don't see that being a problem on a massive scale. If I'm correct, it will have to be implemented through hardware. I think BluRay also has some security in the fact that it's a ton of trouble to copy them. You have crazy expensive 25 to 50GB media. Expensive burners. Then whoever copies them has to transcode them from whatever format to BluRay. Unless it's a direct copy of course. I'm sure there some who don't see this as a issue. But I don't see it being a prob on a massive scale anytime soon. I do think media will change more frequently as time goes on, but to say it's on borrowed time is a bit premature. I personally enjoy bluray. Of course I shop on ebay and amazon for my movies cause retail value is still high.

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LatiosXT

PS3s are as low as $300.

Not like you should be getting a console for one game only anyway.

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violian

Any physical form of media is bound to die at some point in time. Just look at ATRAC, LaserDisc, HD-DVD, cassette-tape, BetaVHS, MiniDisc, CF, MemoryStick, and perhaps even CD now, regardless of how successful the platform was. But I do wholly agree with him, that the PS3's platform itself would be more successful if it didn't come equipped with Blu-Ray. I would've had a PS3 instead of a 360 if it weren't for the PS3's $400 price-tag. But a cost reduction isn't happening as PS3 games utilize  the Blu-Ray platform. Oh well, I'm really happy with the 360 platform. Will I be getting a PS3 just so that I can play GT5? Maybe when the hardware price drops to $200.

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harbingercmt

Had Microsoft had the smarts to shove an HD-DVD player into the 360 when they had a chance - I'm willing to bet that the HD-DVD format would still be around and this McGill idiot wouldn't be bad-mouthing physical media.

I, like many others, waited for Microsoft to put a HD-DVD player into the 360.  When it became certain that they wouldn't be following Sony's lead - I went and bought a PS3.  Up untill that point, I had been an X-Box devotee.  Ah, but what is losing market share to a company like Microsoft anyway...seems to be the only thing they do consistantly anymore.

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Peanut Fox

Shoving an HD-DVD drive into a 360 would have done more harm than good.  The only benifit would have been the ablity so have a disc that could hold more data.  That's it.  The trades offs would have been increased load times, higher production cost, further splentering the Xbox audiance (games that are HD-DVD and ones that aren't).

What function would the xbox 360 have gained by having a HD-DVD drive besides the obvious?

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bling581

There will always be a place for physical media and to say otherwise is ignorant. Some people prefer to have a physical disc instead of a digital copy for many reasons.  Also I'd like to know how this guy thinks families with DVD/Blu-Ray players in their vehicles are going to be able to stream or download movies. Fat chance. Even if you had some type of media storage in your vehicle for movies and music it has to get there somehow.

I agree that the Blu-Ray market isn't the best, but if they can figure out how to lower the price and make the discs load faster I think it would increase.

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Eoraptor

I tend to agree that blue ray is a dead, truncated tech path. Sony and Toshiba and their respective camps spent so much time dicking around during the "HD DVD wars" that most consumers said "screw it" and decided to stick with DVD quality material, and are generally fairly happy with that level of resolution. Remember, a LOT of people still own tube or sub-1080 flat screen TV's and/or monitors. I wish I had a number of market penetration, but I know it can't be higher than 25% of total sets in use. So real blue-ray quality viewing is still a minority of the market. And don't forget that Video is only half the equasion, blue-ray audio is no higher in quality than DVD audio n the whole, and if you have rich sound experince, it will generally make up for only having 720p video for most casual viewers.

That's another reason streaming is rapidly replacing physical. many people simply dont care the difference between DVD and blue-ray uality unless they are watching on a screen bigger than 30" in their livingroom with their massive entertainment centers. compare that number to the number of people watching TV in their bedrooms, or on their laptops or pad/smartphones?

By the time most people HAVE upgraded the majority of their aging TV sets to a true HD screen big enough to make a visual difference, download speeds of 25+mbps will be much more common than they are now (we hope). Really, the only hope for blue-ray is to push for a single, unified 3-D viewing setup among all manufacturers, and considering that that hasn't happened yet (look at Avatar only compatible with one manufacturer in 3d), I doubt it will come to pass in time to save physical media from the dustbin of history. Digital downloads offer much greater content control, and why should hollywood sell you one physical disk once, when they can rent or license the same content to you time and time again for years to come? Just look at how they are trying to strangle disk services like netflix and at the same tme establish their own content services like hulu+ and comcast nbc to sll you live and nearly-live content and movies?

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Peanut Fox

Actually Blu-Ray has support for streaming uncompressed HD audio.  It can stream in both Dolby TrueHD and DTS-HD Master Audio.  A standard DVD can't do this.  Does this matter to most people?  No, but if you want that experience you'll be buying a Blu-Ray player and accompanying discs.  

Some folks just want the best experience money can buy, and Blu-Ray offers that.  In the same sense that Records are still around, surviving the cassette tape.  Until the mass majority of people have access to Ultra High Speed connections physical media will still be around.

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nHeroGo

...because it is either partially right or totally wrong.

I want to pay for a hard copy of some kind if I intend to keep it around for a while. And I don't see 100% of the population dying to pile hard drives on top of each other every 2-3 months.

DVD-movies became very popular in my household when they started offering a second disc with extra material. I don't know how much "extra" you get with streaming.

Speaking of hard copies, we consume more paper since we entered the digital age, even though the prediction was the opposite. We are so advanced and environmental nowadays and digital, yet we consume more garbage and fuel than ever before. Predictions are fun. I am still waiting for jet packs.

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nHeroGo

...video/movies at all, but about video-games? After all, the guy from Xbox is interested in promoting Xbox, which is primarily a video-game console but can be used to play movies as well. From that perspective, yes, download and streaming and possibly some sort of subscription-based business strategy would be suitable for Xbox-players. He is talking about keeping the box "inexpensive" by not implementing BluRay technology.

More on predictions and absolutes. Last physical format - BluRay or not? Too early to tell. Possibly, some organically grown nano-tech based chip will be the answer to all our physical video needs. Maybe a small USB-like device (let's call it USB 8.2) could carry a terrabyte or two and lock down video material.

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aviaggio

There are so many things wrong with this guy's statement I don't even know where to begin. Streaming will NEVER take the place of physical media. Ever. And any company that thinks this is true is going to have a serious wake up call.

And streaming full 1080p HD video? On a 5-8 Mb DSL or cable connection with a 200GB monthly cap (typical American connection)? Yeah, I don't think so. What fantasy land is this guy in where everyone has 25-50 Mb uncapped fiber connections and is willing to shell out $100+ a month for it? Sure ain't here in the US.

Last time I checked streaming video doesn't come with any extras either, something that we know continues to drive the sale of DVDs and Blu-Rays. Another reason why this proclamation is an epic fail.

With prices of BR equipment and burners finally coming down to reasonable levels and the cost of the discs being comparable to DVDs, Blu-Rays are selling better than ever and are going to be around for a long time.

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lunchbox73

Are you serious? Do you think the technology 20 - 50 years from now will even resemble what we have today? When I'm on my front porch rocker dreaming about the good old days I'll be chuckling about optical discs and internet speeds less than a gigabit. Blu-rays or any physical medium will be extinct a lot sooner than you think friend.

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aviaggio

Where did I say anything about 20-50 years? I said "a long time", meaning "not going away anytime soon". But honesly, I can see Blu-Ray being around for at least another 10-15 years. Unless there is some kind of paradigm shift in TV there is no reason to think Blu-Ray is going anywhere, especially considering its adaptability, something DVDs don't have.

If anything it will continue to penetrate the market as more and more people move to HDTV sets and as prices continue to fall for both the TVs and the players. 

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lunchbox73

"Streaming will NEVER take the place of physical media. Ever."

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aviaggio

Yes, and that statement I stand by. Because some day Blu-Ray will get replaced by another physical format that will still trump streaming. Cause as people we actually like to own things we can hold in our hands. I don't see that changing anytime in my lifetime.

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lunchbox73

I totally disagree. With our world moving closer to "the cloud" every year I can see a day where nothing is physical. Books, music, games, whatever. It's cheaper to produce, more efficient, and dynamic (first edition books automatically upgrading to second edition, etc).

I'm not too thrilled about that by the way but I think that is where we are heading. That and metallic jumpsuits. Especially metallic jumpsuits.

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Biceps

Have to agree with lunchbox on this one.  I love physical media, but since I am in the middle of moving apartments, I noticed that most of my games I own are on Steam now, not on CD or DVD ROM.  I do have to dispute the idea that physical media is going to disappear completely for one reason: backups.  Hard drives always always crash, given enough time and use.  The lifespan of a hard drive is measured in years - CDs, DVDs and BR Discs can hold data without deterioration for DECADES.

There are a lot of people out there who don't want to lose their entire movie/game/etc. collection because of one power surge, or because they bumped their computer case at the wrong time.  Those people will be using physical media for long long time.

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gothliciouz

all the freaking so-called 1080p digital format aren't really true  hd, they are heavily compressed to make it more portable and to take less time to donwload and will never compare with a real physical blue-ray disc quality, plus the flexibilty to convert to whatever digital format you want, uncompreesed or compressed.

blu-ray disc ftw.

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zakn

HDCP has seen it's last days.

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mike2060

I will take 30+ Mbps  video and 2+ Mbps 5.1 DTS-MA over crappy streaming any day of the week.  Also with Bluray I actually own the content and can access it anytime.

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routine

I could be wrong... but I don't believe you actually "own" your bluray movies. You may own the discs, but you certainly don't have the freedom to make copies, etc.

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aviaggio

The point being you have the physical disc and can watch it wherever you are, regardless of whether or not you're connected to the Internet.

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weaslem32

Let us not forget that Bill Gates once said "No one will ever need a hard drive larger than 512mb"!

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Peanut Fox

I don't actually think he made that statement.  If he did, could someone please link that thing.  

If this were a Wiki I'd be a [citation needed].

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gothliciouz

i belive that was ram

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routine

It was ram and the amount was 640k.

 

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routine

Blu-ray sucks. Yes, the picture looks marvelous --- but the DRM sucks, and it's slow as molasses.

I hate not being able able to skip the next chapter during trailers and the fbi warning, etc.

The hardware should be in control of the software, not the other way around.

 

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stradric

I'm with McGill.  BluRay is for suckers.  It's artificially kept alive by studios dragging their feet on digital downloads.  I will never ever buy a BluRay player.  It's not worth it in my opinion, and I resist it on general principle.  Give me DTS sound over 1080p video any day.

Personally, I think my 720p Sony Wega looks better with a torrented x.264 720p vid than my friend's Vizio 1080p tv and his BluRay player.

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krikboh

A torrent file is not streaming and I think this is more of an illustration of the quality of Sony vs. Vizio. We can't even begin to factor in how the tv's are calibrated.

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LatiosXT

Also with ISPs looking at limiting how much a user can download or charging by usage, streaming content is going to be an unappealing proposition. And even then, cable companies have their on demand service and they don't seem to care about providing unlimited content. Actually, I don't think Microsoft has taken into account that on-demand services exist.

High capacity removable media (or perhaps optical media) isn't going to die any time soon. As long as it's still around, I'm sure movie publishers will continue to use it.

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DreadedOne509

of MS/Gates spouting tripe in the hopes it will become true.

I agree with the other two comments in that BR will be around for a while yet, or at least until MS and the rest of the 'industry' kill it for their own personal gain.

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Peanut Fox

Sure streaming is great.  But as long as 50Mb+ speeds remain out of reach for most folks (North America at least) then Blu-Ray is going to be around.  With 3d video and 4k being heavily talked up, I don't see streaming as an option.  In fact, I've yet to see anyone do an uncompressed stream of 1080p video and audio like Blu-Ray offers.  Bandwidth is also a concern when you consider some people live in rural parts of their countries, or live in an area where there is only one option for high speed internet access, and for them it may be capped or limited to 2Mbps.

Being able to have content hosted on a local HDD would be fantastic.  However, as long as the RIAA and MPAA continue to enslave IP behind lame DRM measures no one will be owning a personal copy of the Dark Knight on their HDD.  Not unless they are ripping it themselves or torrenting someone else's copy.  Because of this I find it hard to believe that studios will allow anyone to download movies to stream around their home and to mobile devices.  

Sure we can use AnyDVD to rip videos we own to our drives, but under the digital millennium copyright act that would make you a criminal in some parts of the world. 

Until the former of these two arguments is addressed, physical formats like Blu-Ray won't just be around. They will be required.  

 

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krikboh

Streamed content may look good on my monitor, but it can't beat Blu-ray on my 55" tv. Calling full HD 1080p streamed content "Blu-ray quality" is like calling 128 Kbps MP3's "CD quality".

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jakthebomb

The easyest way to see the difference is watching high action scenes.  On blu-ray there is minimal if not no artifacting, on streaming however it is very hard not to notice.  I think blu-ray will live longer than what the analists say due to the following reasons.

 

1. People still want to own their content

2. Most people still have subpar internet connections

3. Data Caps would become a mojor factor on how much you could watch in a givin month

 

jakthebomb

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