Why OnLive “Can’t Possibly Work”
Posted 03/27/09 at 03:05:31 AM by Nathan Grayson
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Love the idea to pieces or think it flies in the face of everything PC gaming stands for, you can’t deny that OnLive’s ambitions are a bit lofty. After all, saying that you'll invite the PC back into the cool kids' club is one thing, but converting big talk into much, much bigger action is something else entirely. And according to Eurogamer’s resident tech expert, that “something else entirely” is “impossible.” Reason numero uno?
“To give the kind of performance OnLive is promising (720p at 60 frames-per-second) realistically its datacenters are going to require the processing equivalent of a high-end dual core PC running a very fast GPU - a 9800GT minimum, and maybe something a bit meatier depending on whether the 60fps gameplay claim works out, and which games will actually be running. That’s for every single connection OnLive is going to be handling,” said Eurogamer’s Richard Leadbetter.
But that’s still technically possible; it’d just require a subscription fee that’d make even Rumpelstiltskin go white with sheer terror. Now how about this little number?
“First of all, bear in mind that YouTube’s encoding farms take a long, long time to produce their current, offline 2MBps 30fps HD video. OnLive is going to be doing it all in real-time via a PC plug-in card, at 5MBps, and with surround sound too.”
“It sounds brilliant, but there’s one rather annoying fact to consider: the nature of video compression is such that the longer the CPU has to encode the video, the better the job it will do. Conversely, it’s a matter of fact that the lower the latency, the less efficient it can be.”
“OnLive overlord Steve Perlmen has said that the latency introduced by the encoder is 1ms. Think about that; he’s saying that the OnLive encoder runs at 1000fps. It’s one of the most astonishing claims I’ve ever heard. It’s like Ford saying that the new Fiesta’s cruising speed is in excess of the speed of sound.”
Hit the link to see Leadbetter’s solution to OnLive’s colossal conundrum. Even with that in mind, though, the rub of it all remains the same: OnLive seems a little too good to be true.
Let's assume for a moment
Submitted by Jox on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 7:30pm
Let's assume for a moment that OnLive manages to deliver on every claim it has made thus far. Let us further assume that they come up with a reasonable pricing scheme. If everything works out perfectly, I can see OnLive dominating the console market. Let's face it: Sony, Microsoft, even Nintendo only make consoles because they have to in order to sell games. If they can sell their games using someone else's technology thereby eliminating overhead costs like stamping, warehousing and shipping game discs, well... I can't see them turning their collective noses up at such a prospect. OnLive has the potential to completely dominate the console market.
However: Unless they can bring Blizzard, SoE, NCSoft and the myriad other producers of MMORPG's onboard, they will hardly make a splash in the PC market. I, for one, have a hard time conceiving of Blizzard agreeing to share the profits of their cash cow.
-Jox
I want that FIesta
Submitted by VoodooChicken on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 8:14am
It sounds a lot more fun
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Look behind you! A THREE-headed monkey!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Vegan on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 6:58am
I agree with the guy in the article. Most people have been skeptical in regards to internet lag, and have been ignoring the even more ludicrous pipedream of CPU/GPU power. Forget internet video transmission. This service could be over a local network and I would be just as skeptical.
Of course, lag wouldn't be
Submitted by FrancesTheMute on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 12:52pm
Of course, lag wouldn't be that much of an issue if the ISPs in the US would ever get off their asses and upgrade their infrastructures to allow for the bandwidths that we see in other developed countries (Japan, Korea, etc) Still pretty sad that we're paying $50+ per month for 15mbps (if we're lucky) when in Japan you can get a 100mbps connection for like $10-20 per month. for what we pay for internet access here, in Japan you could get a 1gbps connection!
Submitted by mesiah on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 9:23pm
There is a reason why japan and korea lead the world in internet and mobile phone infrastructure. Its not that the US is lazy, Its because of the sheer size difference. Japan has a total land mass of 146k sq. miles (70% of which is uninhabitable mountainous regions) South korea only has a mass of 39k Sq. miles (also 70% mountains.) The US weighs in at 3.5 MILLION sq. miles. Thats nearly 19 times the size of BOTH countries put together. The state of texas alone at 269k sq. miles is over 40% larger than both of those countries combined.
Countries like south korea can implement new mobile and internet technologies in a matter of months, where is would take us years, and likely billions of dollars. As with most things, there is a price to pay that comes with size. Just like big companies aren't as agile and are usually slower to adapt than the little guy, so are the big countries. Theres just alot more at stake. But if you really like being on the cutting edge, you can give up your high paying position with the big guys and go work for the little guy.
I don't get how they can say
Submitted by Netram on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 6:10am
I don't get how they can say this is a PC, when it's quite clearly a console.
Fucking marketting retards.
Submitted by carlosceu123 on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 7:16am
It aignt no thang but a chiken wang!
Umm
Submitted by Geeksquadmyss on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 6:39am
Because everything is run on servers/pc thats why, did you read the article on OnLive? or this one it'll run graphics cards and cpu's etc, like a computer.
This guy really doesnt bring up any problems i'm sure OnLive hasnt thought about, this company is a business and i cant imagine that they would release a product with goals that are this huge without being able to back it up.
I dont think Internet speed for most gamers will be a problem. And as far as this company making money off of this, Think of it this way, if everyone playing Xbox 360 stops using it because this service makes consoles obsolete, thats a lot of people who are going to want to play video games.
I dont know if this thing will succeed but i'm routing for it, i think this is a great idea.
Submitted by mesiah on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 9:43pm
I think the reason they concidering it to be a PC and not a console is because the actual machines running the games really are computer servers. Its not a proprietary system designed by a company that runs a special OS (albeit linux) to play games that are only made for that exact hardware setup. Its nothing more than a bunch of servers strung together, with graphics cards that you can buy on newegg, running windows, and playing games made for PC. So, in that aspect it sounds like a PC to me. But I can also see the other way around if you are focusing on the home unit. It most definately has less in common with your PC than even your Tivo does.
As far as businesses touting key selling points that aren't based in the real world and will never make it to market.... that happens all the time. Manufactureres always make huge claims, then cross their fingers and pray that their engineers can back it up, and more often than not they can't. But noone would get excited if they told us the truth "Right now we aren't even sure that this will really work, but were hoping." Isn't going to have people running to game stop asking when preorders start. The thing I am most skeptical about is input lag. If any of you remember the first wireless controlers that came out, they were horrible. You couldn't play most games effectively because the game would respond nearly a second after you pressed the button. Even a half second delay for most people would be unacceptable in a game that takes precision movements. I just can't imagine me pressing a button on my controller, the info being sent to the server, it being proccessed, then video being encoded and sent back to me from a location hundreds or thousands of miles away in half a second. Although maybe they have found ways around this. I for one am really interested to see how it all pans out.
Submitted by Velcrow on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 9:21am
@geeksquadmyss - Actually, he may not be wrong. Think of it this way, the XBOX 360 is basically a PC. It's even hacked for Linux. It's only really defined as a console because it's a portable gaming machine intended for use on a TV and limited in functionality. Microsoft is pretty much providing a cheap gaming PC. If you purchase the streaming device, you've suddenly got a portable gaming device with highly restricted functionality. And thinking of it that way... this is less of a PC than even the XBOX 360, which can be modded.
Submitted by Phated1 on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 8:20am
its unfortunate, but A LOT of companies do just that. The most recent one that comes to mind is aventurine with the whole darkfall fiasco. They built a game and touted its ability to have MASSIVE hundreds vs hundreds battles, but then have such low quality servers barely anyone can get in the game, not to mention the servers cant handle the load those types of battles put on it, instead just refusing connections from half the people.
When something is in production, they will say anything to get you really excited about it.
Submitted by anonuser on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 4:44am
Encoding can be done on the fly, welcome to the 21st century. Someone really needs to check their computer knowledge before writing an article dissing a new-age product.
That said, I don't believe OnLive will work to be honest. The first part is really the biggest problem. I can't see OnLive making money (hey, it's a business, they have to make money somewhere) by having expensive computers in their centers and then streaming it to the user unless they charge a lot, enough to cover the cost of the computers on their lifespan. Not talking about the lifespan of the hardware here, sure it can last 10 years, but obviously it won't be able to play up-to-date games in 10 years.
Obviously, a user isn't going to be playing a game 24/7, so they can finance 1 computer by charging many users... unless WoW is a game they offer.
the original article did
Submitted by nekollx on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 8:13am
the original article did mention it would work well for MMOS, imagine having a on 80 MS lage with WoW or guildwars or Wahtever on untra high res.
Submitted by FrancesTheMute on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 12:46pm
problem is, it's *NOT* ultra high res, it's only 720p, which is 1280x720.
Submitted by nekollx on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 2:26pm
and WoW isn't HD, i was referign to the highest settings in WoW at SD
Submitted by stige on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 12:36am
the euro gamer article has some good reasons to be skeptical about OnLive. but I, like the author of that article, want OnLive to succeed.
D.E. ..... QQ more.
Christ, Nathan.
Submitted by D.E. on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 12:22am
Why not just copy and paste the entire article to make up your entire post?
You actually have more quoted content in this post than original content that you came up with. Really now? You are making a blog post about a blog post and fill the majority of your post with what you are blogging on. :|
aww it's like a tiny dog
Submitted by Antilogic81 on Sat, 03/28/2009 - 4:33am
aww it's like a tiny dog that thinks it bigger than it really is.
Submitted by billysundays on Fri, 03/27/2009 - 8:58am
Oh, shut up you lousy cunt.
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