Videocard Vendors Expect Nvidia's Market Share to Drop, Nvida Says No Way
Videocard Vendors Expect Nvidia's Market Share to Drop, Nvida Says No Way
Posted 01/14/2010 at 6:04am
| by Paul Lilly
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AMD certainly turned up the heat in 2009 and ended the year by wrestling away the performance crown from Nvidia in both the single- and dual-GPU landscape. Citing water cooler chatter from behind the scenes at graphics card makers, DigiTimes says AMD is expected to ride that momentum well into 2010 as Nvidia's discrete graphics chip market share slides backwards.
As it stands, Nvidia dominates the discrete graphics chip market with a 65 percent share, but sources say the company will drop to 60 percent, or lower.
That's news to Nvidia, who dismissed the speculation and says it expects to see strong demand, no mater what the videocard vendors think.
Should Fermi live up to the hype, Nivida wouldn't have much to worry about. But will potential upgraders hold out that long? Fermi will launch in March, which is still two months away, and that could mean mass shipments won't kick in until three months from now.
For AMD's part, the chip maker claims to have shipped a total of two million HD 5800-series GPUs.
Image Credit: Nvidia
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imagonex
January 14, 2010 at 5:31pm
The "Digitimes" article doesn't appear to offer much solid information...flaky at best and there is no concrete and substantial references to back-up the "speculation" claims.
Currently, as I type this, AMD stocks are at $9 and Nvidia are at $17 and that's after ATI selling millions of graphics parts. So, you do the math. Nvidia alone is worth a good $4 billion. I don't think Nvidia is too worried at this point. I'm pretty confident they will follow through with Fermi. AMD/ATI although healthy, is, luckily, financially healthier. I want both companies to succeed. I hate monopolies!
Heck, look at AMD when their Athlon parts beat the Intel Pentiums. Then...came Duo Core, tic, Nehalem, toc, and...another tic. We're still waiting for "toc" on the side of AMD's CPU division.
Will consumers wait for Fermi? Yes and no. The "informed" consumer will. The "typical" consumer with no knowledge of PC parts doesn't care what's in his PC or laptop otherwise Intel wouldn't be selling their mediocre IGP's. Consumers with less money will buy whatever they can afford. Consumers with higher salaries and readily available luxury money will go out buy whatever they please whether it be ATI or Nvidia high-end. Gamers will buy whatever product they believe is the best for their money and personal taste. Pros will stick by whatever product has a good track record. Fanboys will buy what they want to buy hell or high water even if you argue with them 'til the cows come home.
"Performance crowns" are truly only a bragging rights issue and only relevant to gamers with bleedin' edge hardware. Server markets are quite different. The "performance crown" sector is far from being a majority. Hence, one major reason ATI went after the midrange markets! Otherwise they would've faced more financial losses. AMD has had more than its share of ups and downs, more than Nvidia, I think.
Will Fermi perform? I think it will based on the current lineup of GTX285, 295 levels. Make whatever empirical conclusion you want.
Will it blow us out of the water, make us see unicorns and (sic) slap ATI's 5xxx series? Judging from the past and Nvidia's track record...well...hmm...it should perform. Will it deliver a massive blow? Again, it depends. Depends on drivers, games, software, use, you name it. The same can be said of ATI.
ATI's current parts are competing against past Nvidia hardware. So, honestly, yeah, I think Fermi will be a pixel/texel spitting green demon.
All in all, Nvidia is financially healthy. AMD on the other hand, just got a big payout from Intel. AMD also split and founded Globalfoundries (excuse me if I don't have the latter's name correct) to alleviate anymore hemorrhaging. They've finally settled which is good because I hate to see a monopoly in any sector.
In the end, I want diversity in the computer world. Monopolies are far from a good thing for any consumer in any sector.
Baer
January 14, 2010 at 10:52am
I was considering going to AMD (ATi) for the first time since their drivers screded me about 8 years ago but what I saw of the new GF100 at CES made me pause. Six monitors with fast frame rated in 3-D, amazing.
Both companies have new cards comming out in the next few months. Unless you really need one now I would wait.
jfigura
January 14, 2010 at 10:34am
I've owned nothing but ATI cards for the last 7-8 years. They have always sufficed for video gaming, they were better performers for video editing, and the costs have always been inline with the value received. Nvidias holier than thou attitude doesn't impress me nor does their constant squabbling with Intel.
K0BALT
January 14, 2010 at 10:23am
I'm holding out. Fermi is gonna kick ass. Gonna upgrade soon as it's avaiable.
__________________________________________________________________________
~ i7 920 @ 4.4GHz, (2) GTX295's Quad-SLI, EVGA X58 3X SLI, 6GB DDR3 OCZ Gold ~
DOOMHAMMA
January 14, 2010 at 10:05am
Just buy ATI now for your current DX11 needs, and then wait it out a year and buy whatever is the best DX11 card, be it ATI or Nvidia. Though, I honestly view the 5870 as the bare minimum for DX11 "futureproofing", especially with eyefinity. If anything, I think its best to stick out the next year with a 4890 or 260 in your computer and wait for the revisions for all the cards these two companies are going to make. But if you can't help yourself, like I couldn't, just buy a 5870 for now.
DOAcepr
January 14, 2010 at 10:27am
That's been my strategy. Hold on to my 260, maybe run them in SLI and hope that pays off in 12-18 months from now.
David M
January 14, 2010 at 9:02am
If Nvidia does not start getting price competitive with ATI then they will lose more market share. I am almost certain the Fermi based card will be more expensive than what ATI has to offer on a benchmark basis. I have bought a lot more Nvidia cards than ATI cards. Nvidia has just become arrogant with their pricing. Someone needs to tell them that they are not necessarily better.
ThunderBolt
January 14, 2010 at 8:38am
I'm still using 9800GX2 in QuadSLI on 780i mobo. Right now they idle between 75-90C with fans at 100%. Yeha, I know.
Gimme new videoz cardzst!
Caboose
January 14, 2010 at 10:47am
I thought SLI ended with Tri. Or do you have 2 x2 cards in SLI = Quad?
-= I don't want to be dead, I want to be alive! Or... a cowboy! =-
ThunderBolt
January 14, 2010 at 5:11pm
QuadSLI = 2x 9800GX2 = 4x 8800GT
It's okay, but I can literally boil water, fry bacon and eggs with those cards.
LatiosXT
January 14, 2010 at 7:13am
I'm slowly losing faith in NVIDIA on the basis that they're slipping since the 8800GT. And one department that is annoying the crap out of me right now is drivers. First there's the fiasco that after 182.50, my video card thinks the "primary" display output is occupied by some monitor that doesn't exist (although this looks like an EVGA specific problem). Then there's the fact that recent drivers can't save certain settings because the control panel doesn't go into admin mode.
I seriously doubt Fermi will be groundbreaking.
And to save a mod some trouble: this post expresses my opinions alone. :3
Neufeldt2002
January 14, 2010 at 7:19am
Hmmm, I thought I was the only one with some of these issues. Driver support has been worse than ATI lately. LOL
I wanted a signature, but all I got was this ________
metalclaw
January 14, 2010 at 6:32am
Honestly, Nvidia has yet to disappoint..I'm so glad they're taking their time with G300 than just rushing it out the door to compete with ATI. This year will see USB 3.0 start to take hold and Hex-core chips from Intel...I can't wait to put a machine together with those new technologies : )
K0BALT
January 14, 2010 at 10:25am
I second that notion.
_______________________________________________________________________________
~ i7 920 @ 4.4GHz, (2) GTX295's Quad-SLI, EVGA X58 3X SLI, 6GB DDR3 OCZ Gold ~
Neufeldt2002
January 14, 2010 at 7:17am
nVidia has dissappointed, If you remember or not, they had fudged benchmarks to make sure their chips reported running faster that ATI's. I believe that was the 5000 series. The 6000 series ran extremely hot, and used so much power it was unreal. Their debut on the graphics scene was so unremarkable, sceptics wondered if they would still be around, or it they were serious. nVidia has disappointed, even their newer cards have issues, but so does ATI's. I believe that if "fermi" isn't this super fantastic do all chip many will question their loyalty to nVidia.
Myself, it has to beat ATI by more than alot (Undecided on actual number) before I buy it, espescially scince it is supposed to run super hot.
I wanted a signature, but all I got was this ________
Avery
January 14, 2010 at 11:36am
You should have a look in the most recent Maximum PC mag and see the ATI advert spead with the misleading bar graphs.
Im holding out for Fermi too, one of the biggest reasons is reading the falseness on the Semi A boards. "Delusional"
What I want to see if Fermi releases at a higher price is in line performance for that price.
Caboose
January 14, 2010 at 8:32am
And being nVidia, has to be insanely crazy expensive!
-= I don't want to be dead, I want to be alive! Or... a cowboy! =-
snapple00
January 14, 2010 at 8:31am
Meh, I don't think 'skeptics' matter at all. And do you remember the 4850? Good card, but also ran extremely hot.
I'm not sure why you assume all Nvidia cards run super hot though, or if super hot even means anything at all. I've had cards that have run a lot hotter than others, but still within their safe range, and they have lasted. That goes for both Nvidia and ATI.
I like to build all AMD/ATI systems, or Intel/Nvidia systems. I don't know why really but I suppose it is a mental thing. The Intel/Nvidia systems always come out a little more expensive, but not really a problem. Every AMD and Intel system I have built so far has lasted until the next system (knock on wood).
kevaskous
January 14, 2010 at 9:45pm
Not entirely true i have a single slot HD4850 and it really depends on both BIOS and age, it had mostly to do with the BIOS voltage levels and such being way out of line. This was fixed by later BIOS updates released by nearly ALL brands.
nekollx
January 14, 2010 at 9:31am
Well there is the article right here on max PC where a NV rep says the prototype Fermies run Super Hot....
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Coming soon to Lulu.com --Tokusatsu Heroes--
Five teenagers, one alien ghost, a robot, and the fate of the world.
nekollx
January 15, 2010 at 9:37am
your OWN WORDS
"I'm not sure why you assume all Nvidia cards run super hot though,"
All i'm saying is it's not a assumption, a Nvidia rep said just that "they run super hot"
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Coming soon to Lulu.com --Tokusatsu Heroes--
Five teenagers, one alien ghost, a robot, and the fate of the world.
vistageek
January 14, 2010 at 6:30am
I want to upgrade from my GTX260 and I must say, the wait for the fermi has been and will be WAY TO LONG.
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