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Microsoft's Surface RT tablet ended up on our controversial list of "Holiday Gifts to Avoid" because it lacks a x86 foundation (and therefore won't run all your fancy Windows 7 applications), is slow to load apps (initially), and is sitting behind a bare ecosystem. Surface Pro looks to be a better, albeit more expensive option when it launches in January 2013, but even so, Surface RT could rack up sales of more than a million units by the end of the year.
The folks at CNet spoke with IHS iSuppli analyst Rhoda Alexander on the phone, who said that her and her firm estimate 1.3 million Surface sales in Q4.
"I would be surprised to see it much above that," she added.
Surface RT has been on sale since October 26, so that Q4 sales estimates really boils down to just two months worth of movement. That's not bad, though there's some debate on how many units Microsoft will actually move. According to CNet, brokerage firm Detwiler Fenton stated in a research note that sales wold fall short of a million units.
It was also recently rumored that Microsoft slashed Surface RT orders with overseas suppliers in half after failing to generate the kind of sales figures it was anticipating.
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jumanisu
December 05, 2012 at 1:39pm
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Warrior247
December 05, 2012 at 1:14pm
"Microsoft's Surface RT tablet ended up on our controversial list of "Holiday Gifts to Avoid" because it lacks a x86 foundation (and therefore won't run all your fancy Windows 7 applications)"
It lacks an x86 foundation? Really, are you "SERIOUS"? Who the hell cares about that? The iPad doesn't either and NOBODY can stop it!
xeones
December 05, 2012 at 4:15pm
i certainly care about it. I've been waiting for the surface pro because it has the potential to replace my laptop, and i travel a lot.
Why on earth would i buy a surface RT that can only run windows apps? I might as well buy an ipad.
Peanut Fox
December 05, 2012 at 1:44pm
That isn't a fair comparison. The iPad is a device that could sell on name alone, something that the Surface can't do. So a consumer looking to buy one would likely compare it to an iPad or Equivocal Android. Unfortunately for Microsoft an Android device is going to be cheaper and have a much more robust market, and for the same price an iPad is going to also have a much better market and all of them will offer similar functionality.
So here you have a Windows device that isn't on the x86 platform and therefore can't use Windows programs which is going to greatly hurt it's appeal for a lot of people.
Warrior247
December 05, 2012 at 1:14pm
"Microsoft's Surface RT tablet ended up on our controversial list of "Holiday Gifts to Avoid" because it lacks a x86 foundation (and therefore won't run all your fancy Windows 7 applications)"
It lacks an x86 foundation? Really, are you "SERIOUS"? Who the hell cares about that? The iPad doesn't either and NOBODY can stop it!
Paper Jam
December 06, 2012 at 7:30am
The iPad had a fully fleshed out market full of iPhone Apps that worked on the iPad upon initial release. Android's market only had a limited amount of tablet compatible apps when those tablets launched and their sales have shown it. This is where RT has a problem. No x86 compatibility hurts. And I don't think Windows Phone 8 apps are compatible, either. And even if I am wrong about that last part, it still doesn't give the platform very many apps. People don't care about x86 as much as they care about having software to use on it. And if they buy RT expecting full Windows functionality, so they can use the programs they already own, they will feel cheated and tell everyone they know not to buy one. There is no confusion between iOS and OSX. MS has left room for confusion here.
jgottberg
December 05, 2012 at 2:22pm
Hey Warrior,
I think it bears mentioning that it lacks an x86 foundation because most consumers that aren't "in the know" may buy one thinking it's A) from Microsoft and B)Windows 8 - and think that it can run all Windows programs.
Paper Jam
December 06, 2012 at 7:15am
This will be RT's biggest problem. Consumers don't want to do homework before buying products. They like Apple because it "just works". Android is getting better. If they buy RT expecting full compatibility with the programs they already own, there will be anger at MS. If Microsoft could sell Pro for a similar price to the iPad I think it would be a hit.
jgottberg
December 06, 2012 at 3:55pm
Agree. I own one but I bought it knowing the limitations. I really like it... The only complaint I have with it is the pop-up keyboard. It doesn't always pop-up when it should - for instance, when I have to fill out a web form, when I click in the field that needs text, I still have to manually go to the keyboard icon and pop it up manually. With my iPad, it's automatic... it just knows.
Baer
December 05, 2012 at 1:10pm
I really like my Surface RT. Look, I have a very high powered desktop (takes a 1200 Wt PSU to power it all under load) which I am keeping running Win 7 for a while, and I have a very good Lenovo ThinkPad which I have now put Win 8 on but I find myself carrying around my Surface Rt. I use it to give PowerPoint presentations, to show videos, to work on Word, Excel Etc. files and to get to the web Etc. It is light, it is fast and it plays music well. It has really excellent battery life and a good sized screen and guess what.... it has a USB port, yes a real USB port. The biggest negative so far is that the mail program that comes with it is web mail centric. Many of us are not Facebook, g mail iKiddies, we use and will continue to use POP 3 mail for a variety of reasons but except for that I really like it.
theplustwo
December 05, 2012 at 12:01pm
It's always funny when the real numbers come out and all the people reporting Microsoft under performing and falling short suddenly go silent.
Personally, I'd wait for the Surface Pro or even Surface 2 (or whatever they end up calling it), but I'm confident that within a year or two Windows 8/RT based devices will have a significant usage margin over iOS and Android combined.
Paper Jam
December 06, 2012 at 7:47am
I think that if MS can get the price on Pro down to where it is competitive with the iPad, MS has a chance. A fully functional Windows tablet would interest me. But the iPad is entrenched as an elite device, and Android has locked in the low and mid ground. And both platforms have a huge lead in apps over RT. I just don't don't see a reason to go RT. If WP8 starts gaining momentum then maybe, but as for the next few years, I think Apple will remain king of tablets and Android king of smartphones. Surface RT and WP8 just took too long to get to the market and are stuck playing catch up while their competition is still getting better.
DeltaFIVEengineer
December 05, 2012 at 4:14pm
What real numbers are you referring to? An estimate is not a real number, it's an estimate.
What's more telling is the fact that Microsoft drastically cut their future supply. That is a real number.
theplustwo
December 06, 2012 at 7:45am
The actual numbers are not out yet (as we're still in the midst of the holiday season), but as the quarter progresses, we're seeing news reports shift from "Surface under performing" and "Windows 8 selling 'modestly'" to articles like this.
I just thought the initial articles about how well or poorly Windows 8 and Surface sales were doing were really premature, given that they were coming out before Black Friday, before the holiday season and before any meaningful sample size of sales data existed from which to make projections.
Peanut Fox
December 05, 2012 at 1:04pm
...That's really optimistic. What about these devices will the mainstream find appealing over the competition?
theplustwo
December 06, 2012 at 7:50am
I may seem a little over optimistic in my post above, but the insanely huge market share of Windows is a true "silent majority." People tend to forget that desktop versions of Windows make up about 70% of the global usage share of operating systems.
As those users gradually upgrade (either by purchasing upgrades or new devices) it won't take much for Windows 8 (or Windows 9, which is why I said two years above) to blow past all other OSs. If *half* of everyone running Windows 7 or older upgrades within two years, devices that can run WinRT apps will have a huge margin over iOS and Android.
Note: I wasn't talking about phones. Just tablets, ultrabooks, laptops, etc.
wolfing
December 05, 2012 at 1:45pm
that's the beauty of the word 'may'. It 'may' also sell one hundred billion units!
kitsunekaji
December 05, 2012 at 10:43am
My thinking is this: MS has loads of cash already, right? So why not sell the RT (from launch) at a more reasonable price? Something like $500 and $600 -maybe even less, then add $100-$200 more for the Pro?
I am no economist, but wouldn't people flock to it even more than they already have, given that the price to performance ratio would be equal to or better than the competition? Hell, they'd even be getting free advertising for Win8!
Why be so greedy?
Peanut Fox
December 05, 2012 at 11:39am
The SurfaceRT is already 500 and 600. The pro starts at 900, which is 100 dollars more than your suggestion. For what it is I think the price is pretty fair.
I Jedi
December 05, 2012 at 11:28am
"Why be so greedy?"
Since when is making a buck greedy?
I agree that they should undersell the Surface in order to create more widespread adoption. As far as I know, they do this with their Xbox 360s, but only because they know they'll recoup the lose back in game sales and Xbox Live. The problem, I believe, is that the same cannot be said for the Surface because not many people are willing to buy an application for 60$. Microsoft might be better off creating a tablet designed for businesses and create applications included for that purpose. This is what the Windows Surface Pro is for, so I think they'll have more success in that area than they have with your average consumer. Even I wanted a Surface RT, but because of the steep price, I bought two Nexus 7s for the price of one Surface RT. It's all about voting with your pocket, and you're right, the Surface is too expensive for most consumers, but again, they'll probably be better off selling Surface Pro towards businesses.
Paper Jam
December 06, 2012 at 8:00am
You nailed it. Why buy Surface RT when you can buy two Nexus 7 for the same amount? But I do think Pro could be big with consumers as well as business if they would sell it at a price that is competitive to iPad, and with better marketing. And if they could get RT down to that $300 range to compete with Android, that wouldn't hurt. But until RT gets a lot more apps, its going to have trouble keeping up with iPad or Android.
gmvolk
December 05, 2012 at 9:30am
Hate to be nit-picky Paul, but only 1.3 sales?
"her firm estimate 1.3 Surface sales in Q4."
Don't see how that will get them 1 million!Seriously though, looking over tablets and comparing what I would want, I really think the Surface Pro could be the one. I like the fact that I *could* run normal windows programs on it and not just Angry Birds. I would want something I could put OpenOffice on to manage spreadsheets that I use daily.
