It’s obvious that a gallon of milk won’t fit into a half gallon container. Same thing appears to be true for the short-term future of mobile communications: we are ‘pouring’ way too much of ourselves into a mobile communication system that isn’t capable of handling the flow. 3G mobile systems, it would appear, are in for some trying times.

The problem facing mobile phone carriers is pretty simple: smartphones are giving existing bandwidth a beating, especially by iPhone users; broadband pricing has been dropping as the market becomes more competitive, which encourages more use (especially with flat-rate plans); and 2G users are slowly, but surely, migrating into the 3G system. The outcome, according to a report by Unwired Insight, titled Will 3G Networks Cope?, there’ll be a 20-fold increase in demand over the next five years.

The solution Unwired Insight argues for is an accelerated implementation of the Long Term Evolution (LTE), or 4G network. LTE networks, which take advantage of scalable carrier bandwidths, have peak downlinks of 100 Mbps; uplinks of 50 Mbps, compared to 3G’s 14 Mbps downlink and 5.8 Mbps uplink maximums. (An upgraded version of 3G will boost downlinks to 42 Mbps, but that would only paper over a fairly severe gap.) Greater throughput will help to ease the load of all those smartphone users that have taken to browsing the web and viewing streaming media. Besides high throughput, LTE offers low latency, plug and play, and is compatible with existing GSM and CDMA architectures.

Problem is, mobile carriers are just beginning to put LTE to the test. Verizon appears to be ahead in the game, with testing taking place in Seattle and Boston. Deployment in 25-30 markets is expected in 2010.

If there is a bright side to all this LTE capable phones aren’t yet available. Kevin Fitchard, of TelephonyOnline, doesn’t expect to see these until 2010 at the earliest, despite iPhone rumors to the contrary.

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