Microsoft Not Going to Hell in a "Truck" After All
Microsoft Not Going to Hell in a "Truck" After All
Posted 06/27/2010 at 2:41am
| by Pulkit Chandna
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A few days ago, Microsoft revealed that it had sold 150 million Windows 7 licenses since the OS first hit the market, making it the fastest selling operating system in history with a 7-copies-per-second sales rate. Going a little further back in time, Steve Jobs suggested at the D8 conference that the PC's days as the most dominant force in computing might be numbered. He even likened PCs to trucks: “PCs are going to be like trucks. They're still going to be around, they're still going to have a lot of value, but they're going to be used by one out of X people.”
While Jobs' prognostication was rebuffed at the very same event by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, the debate is likely to persist deep into the future. Now, Microsoft is again blowing its own vuvuzela.
Frank X. Shaw, Microsoft' corporate vice president of Corporate Communications, was full of big numbers in a recent blog post avowedly inspired by “the Windows 7 milestone.”Although the blog post highlighted Microsoft's success across a wide array of businesses by citing relevant statistics, it was also meant to remind ambitious rivals like Apple that Microsoft is not, after all, going to hell in a “Truck.”
Shaw pointed out that while Apple is expected to sell 7 million units of its “groundbreaking” tablet this year, PC sales are expected to top 350 million units. He even reminded Apple that it still trails Nokia and RIM in the global smartphone market. Shaw was so determined to target Apple that he conveniently overlooked the fact that Microsoft remains a fringe player in the smartphone market - someone clinging onto dear life by the skin of its teeth.
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WaltFrench
June 28, 2010 at 1:23pm
Any technology that's sufficiently embedded in a society doesn't change overnight.
But Apple has made some dramatic re-inventions of music players and smartphones. Took over one industry in less than 10 years, and is well en route to doing the same with phones, more like a 5-year timeframe.
Thanks to Moore's Law, the PC of today will not be used in ten years. PC technology already shows up in phones (did we forget that iOS is a sibling of OSX?), tablets (ditto) and game players (using a chip that Apple used to feature), etc. The current configuration is great for many tasks now, but more CPU power means more interactive, maybe 3D visualization (remember all the apologists who said 80X25 was better than GUI?), voice commands, take-your-connectivity-with-you always modalities.
I'm not surprised that Microsoft hasn't yet gone out of business. What I AM surprised about, is how casually they are treating their utter loss of the discussion about phones, consumer products, cloud services that are economical enough to be implemented flexibly and quickly, ... you know, everything that's happening these days outside of the server closet.
I Jedi
June 27, 2010 at 2:09pm
What is most interesting to me is that Microsoft itself still controls relatively 90% of the PC market, whilst Apple has only managed to gain a meager 5.5% of the market. In fact, this statement about PC's days being numbered comes from the same man who touted that the tablet was going to replace the desktop computer altogether. My point is that I believe Steve Jobs is either a delusional man, or he is merely trying to boost sales of his own products, but I still prefer to believe in both statements. :} At either rate, the only thing Apple truly has going for itself is the iPhone: controlling around 50% of the mobile market; however, it will be interesting to see how far their tablet takes them, but we will have to wait to see the long-term affect this will have on Apple's success in the future
The Windows OS will likely never be phased out in the near to long-term future, as Windows is the most friendly-user, familiar environment for the average PC user. Not to mention the heavy development by other PC vendors for the platform itself. I think anyone who states that Microsoft is f*cked is delusional or a fool. Admittedly, Microsoft had huge problems a few years ago with Windows Vista, but they seem to have come out of this dark period, as shown with Windows 7. We have seen Microsoft change time and time again to meet the challenges that it has faced. Every time they get knocked down, they do their best to get right back on that horse, and find new, innovative ways in which to succeede. Again, to say that Microsoft future looks bleak is saying that Android is simply a pop. culture phase, that will soon go away with time.
QUINTIX256
June 27, 2010 at 11:32am
Out of all the "Pocket Computer" platforms that came out before the previous decade (e.g the 90's):
RIM added touchscreen support to their platform only recently. Palm made a radical move that is the equivalent Microsoft making a completely different OS that is incompatible with everything they made before.
And Microsoft is basically making a hand-held platform that can't run its existing library of software. BUT: it is based on AXML and .Net, which makes a good deal of modern windows mobile software straightforward to port. I sure hope they wind up with a market-share comparable to Nokia or RIM.
You can have your recession. I'm not participating.
kjrviking
June 27, 2010 at 8:18am
Doesn't the "groundbreaking" iPad need a PC or Mac to get music, videos, photos, and everything else that isn't available from the app store using iTunes? so much for not needing a PC...
I Jedi
June 27, 2010 at 2:09pm
Careful, lad, I got banned not too long ago here for speaking out against Jobs.
Silencer
June 27, 2010 at 5:18am
Linux is a bigger threat to Windows' long-term life, than Apple's MacOS or iOS. And Android (Linux again,) is a bigger threat to Apple, than Microsoft.
Apple can't even make a phone right. Their latest loses bars when you hold it normally. What a joke. Apple will continue to do well, as long as there are lots of people with more money than brains, (like Steve Jobs.)
Maybe Steve Jobs is right. I should toss my dinosaur-desktop in the trash, and start playing Crysis on an iPad.
Can you even install Crysis on an iPad? LOL.
When Apple sticks ray-tracing video in an iPad, I'll look at one, and then I'll buy a desktop.
I Jedi
June 27, 2010 at 2:15pm
While I agree in respect to the idea that Linux, from a professional standpoint, is a bigger threat to Microsoft than Apple is, I must disagree with the general usage part. A lot of average PC users, or non-tech enthusiastic, will want a clean, simple enviroment, that will open their pictures, play their media, and make their games work.
Going back to professionalism between Linux and Microsoft, I would go so far as to say that Linux has already dominated Microsoft in the professional arena, but it will probably never get the attention of the average PC user.
MacRS4
June 27, 2010 at 4:40am
It's an interesting one for sure. I understand Apple's point that PCs will likely become less prominent in consumer areas - I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying it's an understandable viewpoint. App specific devices open up the areas of email/web/media to people who have typically struggled with the more general purpose PC. My 10 year old can get herself wrapped up in knots on my PC (or my Macbook for that matter) whereas I hand her the iPad and she's fine for ages.
I as with all these stories a mid ground of the two approaches will turn out to be the eventual outcome. More capable users will want the flexibility offered by having a general purpose platform, whereas users who are interested in specific purposes will end up using focussed devices.
Forgetting costs for the minute, a device designed specifically to fill one particular need tends ot be easier to use than one general purpose tool that has 1000s of possibilities?
Interesting times.
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