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After months of ballyhooing, we're finally starting to see the tablet market unfold beyond just the iPad and one or two ill-equipped devices. With the recent release of Motorola's Xoom and several other next-generation slates on the horizon, it's going to be a busy year. How busy? According to JP Morgan Securities, tablet revenue in 2011 will reach $26.1 billion, and then $35.2 billion in 2012. This, JP Morgan says, is a bad sign for PCs.
"We expect tablets to have an increasingly negative impact on PC shipments," analyst Mark Mosko said. "More than 35 percent of tablets sold in 2012 will be cannibalistic, particularly as it relates to netbooks and notebooks."
JP Morgan is essentially saying that tablets and notebooks will have a tough time co-existing. While we don't doubt tablets will cut into a handful of PC sales, the 35 percent number is probably way high. Even as tablets become faster and better equipped, they're still poor substitutes for getting actual work done.
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bling581
March 02, 2011 at 11:12am
I think these companies release bogus predictions as a ploy to try and persuade the uninformed to buy a tablet or smart phone. I'm sure PC sales may go down but not as much as they claim. Even if it does how will they know if it's a direct result of the tablet market?
I've said all along that I think the tablet craze is just a fad. Granted there are some people that understand the pros and cons of the tablet but purchase one anyway for specific wants/needs. There are probably a lot more that will buy their first tablet and then realize how silly it was when they could've had a more productive PC or laptop for about the same price.
LatiosXT
March 02, 2011 at 9:03am
Didn't they say the same thing to just about any other portable device?
aviaggio
March 02, 2011 at 10:09am
Yup. Seems like every quarter some "analyst" comes out and says some new tech is going to destroy current tech. And guess what? It never happens.
No one is going to replace their PC with an iOS or Android tablet. No one shopping for a laptop or netbook is going to pay 2-3x as much to get a less functional Windows tablet. It's just not going to happen.
Slurpy
March 02, 2011 at 8:32am
$26.1 billion is about 44 million tablets sold at $600 apiece. Since that is LESS than the trend of growth in the PC industry over the last few years, I don't think there's a whole lot to worry about here.
pastorbob
March 02, 2011 at 8:13am
Sort of like saying that compact cars are going to cut into the sales of semi trucks.
Most of the people I know who have made recent purchases opted for a desktop or a laptop over a tablet because they see the tablet as under-sized and under-powered for their needs.
nmanguy
March 02, 2011 at 7:41am
" According to JP Morgan Securities, tablet revenue in 2011 will reach $26.1 billion, and then $35.2 billion in 2010."
I think you mean 2012 for that last part.
Also, what's this publish to facebook stuff that keeps popping up? Can I just flat-out never see it again?
