J.P. Morgan: MacBook Air to Dominate Ultrabook Market in 2012

Posted 12/14/2011 at 5:44am | by Pulkit Chandna

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It’s always nice to set goals as long as they are reasonable, for what are goals devoid of reason but mere dreams. Take for instance, Intel’s widely publicized goal of helping ultrabooks capture 40 percent of the laptop market by the end of next year. Most analysts seem to be of the opinion that Intel is hoping for too much too soon. Mark Moskowitz, Executive Director at J.P. Morgan, is the latest analyst to cast doubts over the viability of  this goal.

Forget the notebook market, Moskowitz feels Wintel-powered ultrabooks will have trouble making a serious dent in the MacBook Air-dominated ultrathin market in the near term. Like other analysts and Intel itself, he too feels ultrabooks need to be priced more aggressively.

"Ultrabooks are not a competitive threat, yet," Moskowitz said in an investor's note Monday. "In general, we think that ultrabooks are highly discretionary devices, and pricing on competitive offerings must fall below $800 before posing a viable threat to Apple's MacBook Air.”

J.P. Morgan expects MacBook Air sales to touch $7 billion over the next year. Apple will have to sell around 1.6 million Air units every quarter if it’s to get there. According to Moskowitz, Apple can look forward to greater assistance from emerging markets along the way.

“In our view, emerging markets have not been a big contributor to MacBook Air results thus far given the pricing premium on the product. However, we expect this to change as pricing on the MacBook Air decreases over time. Also, as the iPhone and iPad continue to penetrate emerging markets worldwide, we expect the Apple halo effect and Apple ecosystem to drive incremental Mac sales worldwide, including the MacBook Air.”h