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An IBM executive who was part of an engineering team that designed the very first IBM PC has moved on to tablets and thinks we're on the verge of the post-PC era. He said as much in a blog post yesterday, the timing of which comes just two days before the 30th anniversary of the IBM 5150 PC, and some six years after IBM sold its PC division to Lenovo.
"My primary computer now is a tablet," Mark Dean, CTO of IBM Middle East and Africa, revealed in a blog post. "When I helped design the PC, I didn't think I'd live long enough to witness its decline. But, while PCs will continue to be much-used devices, they're no longer at the leading edge of computing. They're going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT, and incandescent light bulbs."
Dean points out the obvious popularity of both smartphones and tablets, but doesn't see these (or any single device) replacing PCs. He instead focuses on the "new ideas about the role that computing can play in progress," and to him "it's becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact."
Offering up one final gut punch, and what he views as further evidence that PCs are going out of style, Dean points out that IBM's pre-tax income margin was 11.1 percent in 2004, the last full year IBM owned a PC division before unloading it to Lenovo, compared to 18.9 percent last year.
Image Credit: oldcomputers.net
Comments are closed on this article
Holly Golightly
August 12, 2011 at 1:18pm
I want to own a tablet. But there are soo many different tablets with their own OS to choose from. We Got iPads with iOS, Blackkberry Playbook with QNX, HP ToughPad with WebOS, and the other with different flavors of android including Froyo and HoneyComb... And upcoming IceCream Sandwich. The problem is, there is no universal support for ALL tablets in the market. This makes the choice that much more complicated... Maybe Windows 8 will be an anser to this problem? I do not know... But right now, I am leaning towards the playbook... Just taking my time, and waiting for the best result.
jonnyohio
August 12, 2011 at 9:06am
Wait a minute...a tablet technically IS a PC .....wow this article just blew my mind
m1k3_flrs
August 11, 2011 at 5:55pm
When a tablet PC runs Sony Vegas Pro 9, Photoshop CS5, and Crysis all maxed up... on a 3 monitor set up than I'll consider buying one. On the meantime my computer isn't going anywahere.
kixofmyg0t
August 12, 2011 at 12:15am
given the rate at which smartphone(and therfor tablet) horsepower has increased over this short time.....we're maybe 2 years from ur goal.
I remember seeing nVidia's road map somewhere that showed by 2014 they will have SoC's 100x more powerful than Tegra2.....which powers the tablet I'm writing this on....
yu119995
August 12, 2011 at 8:01am
And don't forget to reference the software that will require 80-90% of that increase in order to function adequately, effectively rendering that stat useless. The applications will be able to do more, but don't expect to run them on a tablet.
yu119995
August 12, 2011 at 7:43am
Really? So my next gen Android device is going to run my 2 22" displays while playing Battlefield 3 at 100fps? Nice. Can't wait to see dual 8990's (assuming the naming convention sticks) reduced to phone size.
Please do yourself a favour and join us in reality.
jonnyohio
August 12, 2011 at 6:08am
Ya sorry but i dont see my pc which i use to program websites replaced with a tablet in the next two years. The laptop didnt fully replace the desktop so i doubt the tablet will either.
jaytee100
August 11, 2011 at 5:37pm
Tablets are just too small. I like my 24 inch monitor. The technology is not even close enough for tablets to replace pc's. Gamers will never play on tablets. PC geeks will never benchmark on tablets. Can one rebuild or upgrade a tablet?? No. I agree with the earlier poster.... another tech executive wanting to get his name in the news. Laptops have a better chance of replacing the tower pc. Soon evryone WILL have a tablet...for general internet use. Surfing. They will need to be much cheaper, so when they get dropped they can be readily replaced. Tablets now are a product of the telecom industry. I just don't see landline based internet going away until the wireless broadband spectrum can handle a lot more than it does now. Not to mention the wireless plans are expensive and limited. NOT GONNA HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON!!!
yu119995
August 12, 2011 at 7:46am
I have no need for a tablet. Not now. Not ever. My phone actually fulfills the tablet roll quite nicely. Let's see here. Tablets are primarily designed for surfing (check) and email (check). All bases are covered it would seen.
LiqMat
August 11, 2011 at 5:37pm
My wife and I are just taking baby steps. We finally ditched the desktops last week and are strictly laptops now, but tablets only... never going to happen for content creation. Laptops are about as compact as we can go for Adobe CS5 and Ableton Live Suite 8 work. Touch screens just wont cut it for detailed work like that.
dgrmouse
August 11, 2011 at 5:00pm
Everyone here is rallying behind the PC pretty hard. I'll play Devil's Advocate and suggest that none are envisioning the future. It's either PC or tablet or cell-phone or console, etc. Maybe it should really be PC vs implant vs Vernor Vinge style wearables. Even if you're too chicken to get some silicon implanted into your brain, it's hard to say that you'd rather use a traditional computer when you've already got a computer wired to your contact lenses. The idea that you'll need to be tied to a traditional grey box for any reason may, in fact, be a very dated concept.
whathuhitwasntme
August 11, 2011 at 4:00pm
IF this "expert" means that the main stream casual entertainment user will no longer need a desktop PC, perhaps he may be correct.
Any user that genuinely desires to be able to generate meaningful content or actaully USE the computer for anything besides email an youtube, well the PC aint going anyplace soon.
Perhaps this "expert" only uses his tablet computer for its intended use, and maybe his supervisor should consider reviewing his work loads?
Marthian
August 11, 2011 at 3:55pm
"My primary computer now is a tablet,"
I question if it means that just because he mainly uses a tablet that PCs are outdated. I would prefer a PC for any serious stuff I do. Typing, PC. Gaming, PC. Rendering and Image editing, PC. Maybe they might die mainstream, but I am still going to be using a PC for all my computing purposes (I'd like to see them try folding on a tablet or rendering large scenes quickly.) My brother owns a tablet, and as far as I know, he still uses his PC more.
Not to mention the fact that the WHOLE tablet can break rather than just one part on a computer. Tablet, you have to send the whole thing in. PC, you just send in one thing usually.
Mark Dean, congrats for joining the stupid and brainwashed group that think Tablets > PC, feel free to drink the koolaid.
dgrmouse
August 11, 2011 at 4:51pm
The first Pentium I owned took almost 24-hours to encode a single song in MP3. It could play the mp3 back in real time, but only if there were no other running processes and you didn't move the mouse. Ten years later, it was possible to purchase a 1" cube from Wal-mart that could store and play 1GB of mp3s for $100USD. To think that protein folding simulations or rendering graphics will never be possible on a tablet may be folly. To call someone stupid and brainwashed for suggesting it might be so seems harsh and unnecessary.
yu119995
August 12, 2011 at 7:56am
Why is it that gaming rigs have yet to come down in physical size? Why aren't we playing BC2 on iPod sized machines yet? Simple really. Software demands and they'll always increase. Gaming, 3D rendering, engineering, development etc.
The PC form factor has changed very little for those of us who want to do more than just surf or send email. In fact I would argue that in some cases, they've actually increased in size (dual/triple GPU's etc).
RUSENSITIVESWEETNESS
August 11, 2011 at 3:31pm
Another corporate douchebag desperate to get his name in the press....
Ghok
August 11, 2011 at 3:14pm
I don't know, I love my iPod Touch, but it's the PC I sit at each night. It's the much better device. The form factor is just better. I like sitting in a chair and typing on a solid keyboard while looking at a large screen. I like the fact I can take the machine apart and do what I want to it.
By the way, yinyl is still enjoyable to many music fans. I buy a lot of vinyl records. The same way many people here like to buy PC games on disc. I like the album art and liner notes. It's a small market, but it's still a market. I listen to mp3s a lot too, much more, in fact...
The PC (as I would define it) isn't going to go away. I may use my cellphone to check emails far more often than I use my PC, but the benefits of a PC aren't changing. Just because you can buy a smaller car, that doesn't mean it's good for all drivers.
pastorbob
August 11, 2011 at 2:52pm
If all you do with your P.C. is use email, chat, watch YouTube videos and hit Facebook or Twitter several times a day then a tablet would probably suffice. The people who keep predicting the demise of the P.C. probably can get by with a tablet because they don't have a need for anything else.But for those of us who do more visually oriented work or serious gaming it takes the horsepower and graphics capabilities of a P.C.
My desktop has two moderately sized widescreen LCD monitors (19" and 21") and at any given moment I have several resource hungry programs open along with my web browser and a number of documents. There is no way I could use a tablet to accomplish even a fraction of my work.
jedisamurai
August 11, 2011 at 2:19pm
It all depends...on what you consider a PC. If the computer of a starship and a portable holographic projector, or a PDA is a PC then yes, PCs will never die. But if a PC is a rectangular box that sits on your desk then YES, it has to eventually.
Things change. text interfaces gave way to graphical ones, and those will someday give way to 3D ones. Mainframes gave way to PCs, which will someday give way to cloud-computing and devices we can't even imagine yet. Personally I'm hoping for an OS like the Matrix and a PDA that is an AI with full voice recognition! :D
ShyLinuxGuy
August 11, 2011 at 2:00pm
This is true on the consumer level, but for enterprise? No. I mean, any futile attempts by IT managers to replace the PC as we know it have been shot down in the enterprise. iPads/tablets/non-PC devices may be convenient outside the office for checking on email or jotting down notes, but it can't do regular functions (spreadsheets, for example) because of its constraints (the platform, display size, method of interaction, lack of a suitable and compatible app to name a few). PCs for the enterprise are going to be much cheaper (and easier) to acquire and manage. IOW, while joe blow is enjoying his nth gen iPad, the enterprise is still going to be using some implementation of what we know as "x86".
vig1lant3
August 11, 2011 at 1:07pm
I'm glad somebody finally admitted that IBM didn't kow how to run their PC business, and he was nice enough to back it up with stats. ;)
And I better never see a MaximumTablet or MaximumSmartPhone magazine either or I'm out!
Nimrod
August 11, 2011 at 12:45pm
I call total bull shit on this. If his primary PC is a tablet then he might as well stil lbe using a type writer because they both have similar functionality.
roleki
August 11, 2011 at 11:49am
The PC will never die, but our idea of what a PC *is* may undergo evolutionary changes as emerging materials, technologies, and production processes become increasingly viable and scalable. The real question is, will these evolutionary changes be subtle and over a long period of time, or will it be overnight? It's way early NOW, but with the amount of money and brains being thrown at graphene, we could be just a couple healthy shits away from the breakthrough that changes everything.
I Jedi
August 11, 2011 at 12:07pm
The PC will always evolve, that's not the issue. The issue is that you have these "nuts" claiming the end of the PC to more mobile "solutions." In regards to the PC evolving, just look how far we've come since the AT motherboard, the 8088 processor, the Itanium 64-bit only processor (not 32-bit support for first gen.) Not to mention that as new technology is created, especially for bus systems, such as PCI, we will see new form factors for PCs. It may be so that PCs may get smaller for the end-consumer (not for servers), but I certainly disagree with these people claiming that the PC will lose out to other technology. Until they can implant a chip in my brain, where I can access Google on the fly and receive the info I need, I call bullshit on their part.
roleki
August 11, 2011 at 1:11pm
That's the thing - there's a lot of speculation about radical improvements in battery life, power consumption, and procesor speed made possible by cheap 'nano' materials and architecture. I'm leaning toward the possibility that the PC and tablet will one day become indistinguishable.
Even if that never happens - say that PCs remain cumbersome power-hungry boxes and tablets remain awkward underpowered laptops - or even if tablets somehow match PC performance... among many others, a big reason there will ALWAYS be a call for PCs is the same reason there's still a need for COBOL programmers. The installed base is simply too huge and too well-defined to change - no amount of 'simple' or 'lightweight' or any other point of ergonomics will EVER pass as the reason for such a staggering expenditure.
And I guarantee, all these people running around saying they've switched to tablets and will never go back to a PC (or something to that effect) - I guarantee the most common attribute among these people is that they are functionless figureheads from whom no productivity is expected OR whose output is produced by minions slaving away on PCs. Think Angry Birds was developed on a tablet? Think if it was, that anyone would bother making anything more complex than that? Hell, write your Christmas letters on a tablet and tell me how soon before you pitch that fn thing into the fire. No picture getting any serious work done with one of those.
Nah, the PC is here to stay. These little fad devices will come and go, they'll be extremely popular for their shelf life, then the next thing comes along, they will become obsolete. Isn't that right, CD player?
I Jedi
August 11, 2011 at 11:16am
All in favor of petitioning MaximumPC to stop reporting articles in relation to their (PC) demise say "aye."
AYE!
turbogamer1000
August 11, 2011 at 11:05am
when will these idiots stop making announcements about the death of the pc?
someuid
August 11, 2011 at 11:02am
Eh, whatever. I don't really consider IBM to be on the leading edge of technology when it comes to consumer devices.
IBM is a system designer and integrator of software and services and backend systems. This guy seems to have missed the memo if he's all jacked up and happy about something like tablets which are agueably a small piece of the overall technology pie and IBM's business.
GenMasterB
August 11, 2011 at 10:47am
I've been in the PC field for 30+ yrs, the PC's are not going away. The main reason Dell and others are hurting is it's simple. PC's have reached a point that most people are comfortable with. Back when PC's were 33MHz they had some growing to do, now with multi-core CPU's, people arent feeling the need to upgrade so quickly. Of course sales will be slower, but its NOT the end of PC's.. It's called "saturation". Everyone has them now. Economy and Operating System releases have a lot to do with moving new boxes.. And besides, nothing "incredible" on the PC side lately has spurred the movement for new PC's..
Blues22475
August 11, 2011 at 10:06am
Of course sales for PC's going to go down right now:
1. New emerging technology such as I-PAd tablet PC's Netbooks etc.
2. Economy: not everyone can afford a system.Seems the focus now is to pay off debts and stockpile cash.
3. Why buy a whole new computer for parts that are broken or can be replaced (unless you are not tech savvy)?I don't plan on replacing my PC with a tablet or portable computer such as laptop. Why? Simple: I can more easily repair broken parts on my pc as opposed to a tablet or laptop. Second: it's cheaper to buy parts for your PC as opposed to having one pre-built with some kind of markup (labor costs, software etc). I do recall Steve Jobs saying the same thing about how PC's are gonna be trashed and replaced. I still doubt this very much.
bling581
August 11, 2011 at 10:00am
I could go on about this article but I think we all know better. PC's aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
Happy
August 11, 2011 at 11:29am
He said in the article that nothing we have now will replace the PC, however, he implied that something new will appear soon in the next few years and will replace the PC. This is something that doesn't yet exist and which we don't yet know what it will be. Maybe it will be a flexible phone/computer that is very thin. Who knows? Something will eventually replace the PC though, it's only a matter of when. Will it be in 10 years or 50? Sooner? Later? I'll bet we'll all be happy when it does though because it will only replace the PC when it is a superior choice for almost all tasks for almost all people.
bling581
August 12, 2011 at 9:46am
For simple users I'm sure there will be. For advanced users there is nothing that will ever replace a "PC". Unless something radically changes, the fact remains that when you try to shrink technology to fit into a more convenient device you lose power and features. That concept could change but I don't see it happening in the next decade.
I Jedi
August 11, 2011 at 11:33am
Nothing... I mean nothing in computing beats being able to build your own computer from the ground up... to give life to a machine, as some would call it. Asking a geek to part with the PC is like asking a soldier to part with his weapon. Perhaps, one day, something will replace the PC, but I hope it's long, long, long, long, long down the road when I'm dead, buried and turned to ashes. Long live the PC... SO SAY WE ALL.
DDRDiesel
August 11, 2011 at 9:59am
WHEN will these IDIOTS just SHUT THE FUCK UP about the "Death of the PC" already? Nothing is as customizable or modular as a PC, Gaming on any console can never compare to the power of a PC, and users cannot use Tablets or Smartphones to do word processing and documentation as quick as if they were in front of their PC. PC isn't going anywhere, at least not for the next two (forseeable) decades.
Also, he uses IBM's profit margin as a point of reference to say that the PC sales are declining. Anyone care to look at other OEM sales? Dell still holds a formidable grasp over the end-user market, with ASUS, Sony, and Acer close behind. Him saying that just because IBM is failing means the whole PC world is collapsing is the same as saying that since credit and debit card usage is on the rise, paper money will no longer be accepted, and going the way of the $2 bill. Moron
Happy
August 11, 2011 at 11:39am
I think paper money will eventually be done away with. Since we no longer base our paper money on anything anyway then we might as well make it all digital. If it's digital it's not much less real than paper money (considering there's no longer silver or gold backing our paper money as it is) is right now. I bet within 20-30 years, paper money will be gone in the USA. If not,it'll only be because other less developed countries are holding back the digitization of currency.
big_montana
August 11, 2011 at 10:20am
Actually, Dell's sales are in decline. Lenovo is knocking on their door right now for the number 2 PC seller spot world wide, as they had a 24% sales increase last quarter (only PC vendor to see double digit increase). Acers sales have also slid dramatically as they bet the house on netbooks, which everyone knows, the bottom has fallen out of that market, and Lenovo passed them by a large margin. Acer is having hard time competing in their own market, Asia, as Lenov owns them there and has 70% of the Indian market locked down as well (where Dell has all but called it quits). I do agree with your other points that the PC market is far from dead, as there is no way you can do on a tablet the same things you can on PC or Laptop, especially in the enterprise.
bling581
August 11, 2011 at 10:04am
They spout BS because it's their way of trying to promote tablets. They're hoping that they convince the uninformed to buy a tablet instead of a new PC or notebook because they're "becoming obsolete". I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be so anti-PC if IBM still owned that PC division. It's just a bad marketing strategy.
Raswan
August 11, 2011 at 10:22am
Agreed. So sick of reading articles about the death of the pc that are really tablet makers trying to push their product. Or legit prefidictions about the future of technology (of course the PC in its current form won't be around forever) that get interpreted by the media as "THE PC IS DEAD" because that's all their tiny brains get out of it. Idiots. /sigh
