Google Exec: Desktops Will be Obsolete in 3 Years

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DanDog

This article would male me sad if it was no a total crap-load of F-ing LIES. Go US based Google: F U Euro Google!

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pastorbob

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

This guy is funnier than my cat jumping into a bathtub full of water that she thought was empty this morning.

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flippantmage

Google should drug test their execs like they do their hourly employees. Herlihy obviously has a serious speed problem. No pothead or heroin junkie could come up with a statement like that and not die laughing. Google just wants to cash in on the egregious fees that mobile telecommunications companies charge consumers. When your iphone bill is more than your broadband, cable and home phone bills combined I doubt that consumer demand will go up.

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frizzly

who would ever want to play a first person shooter game or an MMORPG on a cell phone? Doh...

 Frizzly Mejere "Once you go down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny."

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logicmaster2003

 Google Europe boss John Herlihy, you're FIRED, you're FIRED !

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squarebab

No matter how small manufacturers shrink down the technology, they will always scale up the application to maximize it's utility. In other words, the fastest and the most powerful will never fit in a laptop. Desktops' formfactor provide the most utility for home-office use, and as long as people crave a faster way to do things there will always be desktops. (Who the hell wants a laptop with a 24 inch screen, anyway?)

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mesiah

WTF, why am I reading this on a desktop when my phone is right in my pocket? Man, I've got things all backwards.

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IFLATLINEI

 According to Herlihly, “in three years time, desktops will be irrelevant.” 

 

For all I knew this was a smart guy with a good job at a good company. But when you say rediculous things like this I have no choice to think your an idiot. because only an idiot would say something like this. Theres too many factors involved in the PC business along with many different sub markets. Too many of the largeer ones rely on the desktop.  

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Queenof1

is the photo kinda creepy

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TurkuSama

Screw the article, that pic will definitely give kids nightmares...

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Biceps

Dude, it gave me nightmares, and I'm no kid!

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Danthrax66

lol

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majorsuave

blah. When I was growing up in the late 70s everybody was saying there would be flying cars by the year 2000 and that we`d have colonies on the Moon and MArs and that space vacations would be the norm. 

Now a bit over 30 years went by and the hottest car around is still a 70s muscle car. No one went back to the Moon (well... officially) since I was born and space tourism is its infancy with multi-million dollars tickets. 

What`s my point? no matter how far you think we will be in 3 years, the majority of people won`t have the dough to follow.

Unless you say that in 3 years sub-1000$ notebooks/notepads will come equipped with 2 displayports to provide dual 1080p gaming for the masses. 

A sub-1000$ desktop can do it now with Supreme Commander 2 

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knexkid

Lol, everyone and their long comments. I just have one word:

 

WRONG!

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highsidednb

If google thinks that's what the future will hold then they better get their a$$es in gear. The current google mobile app offerings for anything but a Nexus are lame.  

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Thiazolium

What a ridiculous statement. In regards to his statements of obsolesence, yes all the graphics artists using 30" monitors are going to switch to smartphones, as are businesses, places of education, government, etc.  3D rendering farms such as ILM, Pixar etc. will as well.  Now that Fermi is hitting 300watts for a single GPU in 2010, by 2013 the die shrink will allow it to put out merely 2watts with more pixel pumping power!  Of course - what were we thinking?  Yes, and smart phones will have 12 core hyperthreaded CPUs as well; all putting out single watt TDPs while transcoding H264 content. 

Sarcasm aside, smartphones will have their uses and desktops theirs; neither is destined for obsolescence in the near future.  Multimedia content be it HD video or HD gaming is becoming increasingly complex necessitating more computing power not less. Has anybody noticed the power supply trend lately? They're getting bigger and more powerful - not smaller.  Why? It takes a lot of energy to drive the current behemoths out there. 

Quote:

According to Herlihly, “in three years time, desktops will be
irrelevant.” He points to Japan, where he says that “most research is
done today on smartphones, not PCs.”

What does he mean by "most research is done today on smartphones, not PCs."?  What research? Hardly any of the programs we use at our university for research can be performed on a smartphone.  I haven't seen Photoshop CS4 ported to any smartphone?  That includes any referencing software. Ever tried reading a 65,000 column spreadsheet with formulae on a smartphone? How about reading a pdf journal article with vector graphics on a smartphone? I suppose he's speaking mostly about performing "Google searches" in a mobile browser window.  Yes, Google has its strong points, but no scientist relies on Google for obtaining journal articles because it is neither organized nor appropriately setup for scientific searches.  Moreover its results are generally quite fragmented and incomplete. Ever noticed even Google Scholar is perpetually in Beta form.  In sum, his statements are clearly inappropriate and misguided.

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Biceps

Not to defend the overall argument, because this is one of those rare situations where I completely disagree with Google; however, I think he was saying that most research is done on improving smartphone and mobile cpomputing solutions, and that very little (relatively speaking) is being spent on research for new hardware in the relm of desktops. 

Again, I am just working to clarify his statement, not agreeing with his argument. The idea that desktops will be obsolete is short-sighted.  I love sitting down at my desktop for a good night of gaming and will not be doing so hunched over a smart-phone, dude!  So there! HA!

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pastorbob

His comment about research in Japan may be accurate but how many CPU manufacturers are headqurtered in Japan?  How many GPU manufacturers are headquartered in Japan? How about chipsets? And what percentage of the markets do Intel, AMD and Nvidia hold? I could go on but I think you get my drift.

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violian

....yes, in the future, we won't be viewing movies at home on our 50" HDTV sets either. We'll be viewing them by ourselves on little mobile devices that we can fit in the palm of our hands. Apparently, our desktops with its 20" flatscreens take up way too much space in our homes. And apparently, we spend most of our time fiddling on social-network sites such as Facebook on tiny cell-phone screens.

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SPARTAN-501

Modern laptops can be pretty powerful. But desktops have more power, plus a comfortable display/keyboard/mouse. There's no way in hell consumers are simply going to forego these benefits. And so deskops are here to stay.

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Peanut Fox

I think he is right for the demogrphic he speaks of, but I don't think the turn over will be nearly as quickly as projected.  As an example if you look at the lower middle class here in America, you will find that a lot of them don't have a desktop or laptop that isn't at least 8 years old (if there is one at all).  At the same time those very folks may have a smart phone (a number that will increase with time).  So when Mr Herlihy speaks of a group of people where a desktop is overkill, you don't have to look far to find them.

An Android phone can do all the things that he listed and more.  It doesn't do any of them better than a desktop, far from that.  But when you are trying to convince a demographic that a $500 or $900 Desktop with a middling CPU GPU combination is what they need, it's a tough sell against a sub $200 smartphone that can go anywhere and do all the things that they would do on the PC anyway.  The internet connection is paid for, and they don't have to learn how to use a computer.  How far have smartphones come since the iPhone?  How much farther will they progress in 3 years?

We are PC enthusiast.  We are also the market minority.

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JohnP

Let's see if I can remember all the reasons why desktops would disappear...

1. Thin clients. Where you have a BIG computer than everyone will use using a cheap monitor/ keyboard arrangement. Like that's happened.

2.  Laptops will rule the roost. Yes, there is great demand for laptops but try to do useful work or play a game on a measly 12 inch screen. Good for occasional use, but I would not want it to be my main machine.

3. Netbooks/ smart phones. For work? You got to be kidding. "Move along, nothing to see here".

4. Tablets. Newest craze. Screen too small and no keyboard. Put that right up there with smart phones. Least netbooks have a keyboard.

5. Cloud computing. Is that not EXACTLY the same idea as number one? Except 15 years later of course. Still need a big screen and a keyboard to do useful work PLUS you have the exciting chance of having your data wiped out without a decent way to back up!

So, desktops are big, clunky, use electricity, have large screens and full sized keyboards. There are three things that cannot  be changed: big screen, full keyboard, and a way to back up your own stuff. Until these things are met by ANY OTHER device, desktops are here to stay.

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Peanut Fox

That's the thing about Mr. Herlihy’s statement.  It's not targeted at people who work or play on a PC.  They don't do modeling or HD video editing.  They don't game on their PCs (if they have them).  So if they don't do any of those things, why would they want a desktop?

 

You don't need a desktop to do any of the things the mundane do on a PC.  If you don't do any "serious" typing, your don't even need a netbook or laptop. 

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bikerbub

even if a select number of people don't use desktops, the people who do work and play on PC's will still use desktops. I can't see everything switching over to either desktops or laptops or smartphones any time soon, because of the computing power restraints implied on the mobile platform, and the portabliity restraints on the desktop platform.

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Peanut Fox

I don't think they will disappear.  But I think there is going to be a point were desktops aren't the norm.  And that day is a lot farther than three years.  

What I am saying, is that the group of people that use desktops to create content, and take advantage of all the benifits they have to offer, is a bullet point compared to the people who consume content.  Be that reading, interacting on the web through email, facebook, myspace, or light flash gaming.  The number of people who do those things is much larger than the number of people who create a 3d model, play a "real" game, code in C#, or Java.

 

It's a question of do content consumers receive the full benefits of desktop computing, and I'd have to answer no. 

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JohnP

  All the things that people do with smart phones, netbooks, etc are mostly time wasters. Twitter, Facebook, IM, looking at websites, and shopping cannot under any circumstance be considered productivity tools. Even 90% of the calls made on a cell are probably just conversation.

  So I agree that these apps can be on anything you want. But what is the point and how long can we continue to take away time that people may actually pay us for? 

Remember, the computer revolution was to add to PRODUCTIVITY to the workforce. To make us more efficient at our jobs. It also turned out to be a great entertainment tool, which MAY actually be a bad thing in the long run. We got WoW, Facebook, Twitter, You Tube, and MPC reader addicts already and it is still early in the life-cycle of computing entertainment. What's next?

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lostcause64

Seeing desktops become obsolete or having them vanish altogether stikes me as something most companies like HP and Dell would love. Just like the automotive industry has done for the last couple of decades by trying to eliminate the so-called shadetree mechanic, OEM system makers would love to see people like MaxPC readers eliminated or rendered irrelevant in general. Think about it... I used to love working on my car, make minor repairs, tweak the engine for better performance and mileage, or even major component replacement including the engine or transmission. The same kind of thing we all do with our computers, especially
desktops. The auto industry has gone out of it's way to make cars incredibly difficult to do the same thing on vehicles in the last 10 or so years, forcing most people into taking their ailing auto to a dealer or "official" service center. It's no stretch of the imagination to think that system makers would love to see the same results...

John

Have you ever wondered why intelligence can normally be found in an individual, but runs screaming in terror from a group? Though, there are exceptions...

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JohnP

 I can tell that you are under 50. BITD, I built my 1st computer with a soldering iron.

The first computers had NOTHING to do with one another. There were modifications to add memory, graphics, networking but all were proprietary and were expensive. You had to buy from the manufacturer only.

The IBM PC was also proprietary at first. The BIOS prevented any other manufacturer from making a PC clone. It was not for a couple of years until Compaq managed to circumvent the BIOS and create a clone. Then everyone started into the PC manufacturing business. Now there are thousands of compatible products out there.

The only reasons Dell and HP still use non standard parts is to cut costs, not to keep people out (well, that too). It's rare for anyone who has bought a HP to even crack the cover during the time they own it. Not like us, heh. 

 

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lostcause64

You're right, I'm only 45, but I do remember seeing those kinds of things in my car enthusiast days back before I got into computers. I also remember the hugely proprietary Hewlett Packards along with the IBM pc. It's just that in the same manner of the car being pushed away from us in general, I can see desktops following the same path in the interests of various companies making more money.

John

Have you ever wondered why intelligence can normally be found in an individual, but runs screaming in terror from a group? Though, there are exceptions...

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Metonymy

"Desktops obsolete." Don't we hear this every few months, now? It's like 'video games are bad for kids,' just something journalists/execs say when they don't have anything interesting to say.

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logicmaster2003

how dare you, Google, to say desktop will become obsolete / irrelevant in 3 years !  

I think it is the other way around -- Google will become obsolete / irrelevant in 3 years or less !

His statement is very hurtful to PC Enthusiast and he assumes people use only those services that he'd mentioned (calendar, twitter, google search, facebook). He didn't consider the worldwide PC GAMERS who'd put lots of money / time / effort / passion / style into building their PC .. not to mention our 42" or 52" LCD thats attached to our PC 

 bye bye Google CHrome ... UNINSTALLED :)   oh yea..  those google taskbar / toolbar are craps ! 

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mpcrsc562

the desktop pc will be obsolete for those particular tasks named--only. if the desktop were truly going to be obsolete, then someone had better let intel, amd, nvidia, seagate, western digital, etc. know that their business is going to dry up!

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Digital-Storm

Too bad it is not.

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