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Maximum PC readers love their desktops, and that's why it warms our hearts to hear someone else agree for a change, even if his reasons for doing so are remarkably self -serving. Gigabyte's Henry Kao (vice president of motherboards) is making the somewhat bold prediction that laptops, not desktops will die off as a result of the rising popularity of smart phones and tablet PCs. Because of their "internet capabilities" Kao said "users will eventually stop buying notebooks for their mobile computing needs. Instead, everything done away from the desk or even on the road will be through a smart phone or tablet".
To this end Gigabyte is predicting a boon in the future for more powerful desktop PCs that users can return to for more complex tasks. "Once those people have those mobile devices, people need performance desktop at home or the office," said Kao. In another somewhat unusual twist for a PC executive, Kao labeled the iPhone and iPad as game changers in the mobile computing space.
Kao predicts the full death of the notebook will take three to five years "100 percent replacement won't happen overnight". His argument in favor of desktops carries at least some merit, but I think many in our community would be willing to pick a fight over anyone who claims the iPad is capable of replacing a full-featured notebook for day-to-day tasks. I suspect tablets will need to go through a few more iterations before we reach that point, making the three to five year timeline somewhat ambitious.
What is your prediction?
Comments are closed on this article
jacob.sorensen
June 07, 2010 at 9:17am
I don't think that the Ipad or any Android based tablet will ever replace the laptop. You have to remember that these tablets run on smartphone OS's that besides having a few actual useful features (ie calendars, browsers, etc.) were basically designed to run gimicky apps that have no real world use.
If Microsoft delivers the Win 7 compact OS that we've all been reading about, that would probably be the only true laptop replacement. It looks like it would have almost the same functionality as a standard OS just customized to run on a tablet. Now when it comes to running software that can run on Win 7, who knows? It would be nice if we could.
imagonex
June 06, 2010 at 2:41pm
Currently, these "pad" devices are sold as conduits for media & entertainment and/or very light duty tasks appliances. They're pretty much locked-down and closed market models. iPads shove Apple corporate culture down the consumer's throat.
In the case of Apple, their iPads they operate under a strict, tight and controlled marketplace. Providers, suppliers and media conglomerates don't care what tool you use, as long as you buy their products through them or as long as they make profits selling their products. Yes kids, that's why Apple kept Flash off the iPad.
If the market utilization is geared towards media, entertainment and leisure gaming, then, yes, these appliances will find a more open niche. Keep in mind technology will change in the years to come. Just take a look at how TV is evolving.
However, when the consumer needs a working tool to process the info and make a tangible output of digitally stored media into a DVD or other digital tangible form-factors, in their current form, these "pads" ultimately fail.
Tools and gadgets depend on many factors such as purpose, fads, killer apps, emotional return, satisfaction, etc. When consumers wake up and smell the I-got-suckered-and-trapped-locked-and-caged in this closed model system, that's when companies such as Apple will have major nightmares about their profit margins.
If the market demands serious work applications and tools, then, no, these appliances will not meet the needs of those professionals.
If technology causes cultural changes or makes other technologies defunct (such as the case with CD vs cassettes), then, yes, they'll be in for the long haul until some other technology replaces it regardless of usage.
Right now, Apple's iPad is nothing more than an appliance that locks the consumer into the corporate sales and market of Apple. Question is...how long can they make it last? Android and Windows won't go away anytime soon.
Phones are still around. Only thing that's changed is they're cameras with a phone or a web surfing appliance with a phone. A technology of necessity is very hard to kill. A technology of non-essential needs can be easily replaced.
Alathorne
June 06, 2010 at 1:00pm
Eventually our smart phones will rule and we'll subvocalize our communications and other products through some future version of Dragon... but not for a long time. In his timeframe, the market will continue to be fractured into many maturing niche markets. Ergonomics will dictate the device's use, as we are already seeing. Highly mobile people will continue to sacrifice input efficiency for that mobility, be it through smart phones or tablets. Other size formats represent different "recipes" of compromise. Laptops/netbooks provide greater input efficiency and more comfort with
perhaps more power in trade of less mobility and run time. Desktops represent the least trade off in power and comfort for the least mobility. These factors will persist for years to come.Convergence will still mostly consist of peripherals to combat each form factor's weaknesses. I can see a docking station for your smartphone that gives you access to a full size keyboard monitor and printer when you arrive at your destination, home or office. We already have such things for laptops because of ergonomics.
Shrody
June 06, 2010 at 10:44am
Laptops will still be the go to machine for buissness men and women who have to travel a lot. Tablets don't have the functionality and sophistication to meet their needs. I do think that tablets will mostly find a place between smartphones and netbooks. But as tablets become more sophisticated I believe they well become the new "sit on the couch and surf" solution.
The functionality of a smartphone/tablet to someone who lives a highly mobile, but not necessarily for buissness purposes, is invaluable. Mobile banking, urbanspoon, flixster. All these connecting apps that both the iPhone and Android phones have make them, at least in my mind, dreamy.
PawBear
June 06, 2010 at 9:47am
I'll take advantage of anything that gives me direct access to the info, processes I want, need directly without going through contorsions to get it. Tablets sound nice and direct but I doubt their true utility without increased performance. A tablet pc sounds like a nice compromise. I hope to see one compete with other form factors.
*** "Either we conform the Truth to our desires or we conform our desires to the Truth." ***
m35g35
June 06, 2010 at 6:44am
I haven't bought a desktop in 7 years. Now, to me the desktop has become the "homeserver" for my laptops. I don't see a need/want for a tablet/slate. They're a fade right now. Much like when the PC was introduced some 30 years ago. I just don't see the desktop (homeserver in my case) or laptop going away because of increase cpu/memory/disk(ssd) improvements. To me, the tablet/slate has to prove itself and has along way to go because of the limited form factor cannot get the same cpu/memory/disk like the desktop/laptop. Of course 5 years in the tech world is along, along, along time, and things can certainly change in that timefrace by 2015.
Tenhawk
June 06, 2010 at 3:45am
In the long run we may see one or more form factors 'die' out, but it ain't going to happen any time soon. Do tablets have the potential to partially supplant laptops? Sure. In 20 years maybe. Laptops have massive consumer momentum on their side at the moment, and tablets are untested gadgets with lightyears of refinement to undergo before they're a serious threat.
Similarly, claiming that they're going to outgun a desktop PC somehow is just ludicrous. Desktops are the king of the hill, despite what some laptop proponents believe. You get power, flexibility, comfort, AND economy in a Desktop. Laptops offer mobility in exchange for compromising all of the above. Tablets are even worse, at the moment.
Eventually, I suspect that Desktop PCs will fade, replaced not by laptops or tablets, but by Media Center systems connected to huge high definition screens. But that won't happen until the overall complexity of the UI comes down some more. As long as Windows and Mac computers remain as stupidly complicated as they are, Desktops are safe.
pcmaximus
June 05, 2010 at 10:20pm
i will always stick with pc notebooks and desktops. forget the tablet because there's no keyboard/mouse. if you can add them somehow, then that defeats the purpose of the tablet. as for smartphones/cellphones, i only carry one cheapo motorola razar for standard communications because pay phones are rare in this day and age. unless i lived in japan, why should i care about something that i don't really like to carry around? small screens, lack of keyboard/mouse, paying through the nose for every semi useful feature, terrible games, etc. oh, i hate charging them and all the little charge packs, uugghh...
give me a nice laptop notebook for all my business and gaming plus a desktop to really configure and go all nuts about pc games. that's what i like.
GMoney86
June 05, 2010 at 10:35pm
Originally, a tablet was a laptop, just one with a screen that you could flip around and write on. Although many of the devices that are coming out are called tablets, like the iPad, they would be more accurately described as slates because of their use of touch as the sole input method.
I think it would be great if more laptops were produced with tablet functionality, but it also has its drawbacks (such as the limiting of the screen size). Lenovo has been doing some interesting things with touch capabilities, such as adding touch screens and writing pads to their notebooks while not turning them into tablets with the reversible screens, but it adds a lot to the price of the notebooks.
I think that tablets are still very niche products, because for most of us, the added benefit of a touch screen doesn't improve productivity or ease-of-use; it is merely a toy.
AkuPenguin
June 05, 2010 at 9:30pm
I'm getting kind of tired of all these companies saying that this will replace that and that will replace this. Nothing is going to replace anything because everything will always have its niche. And anyway, the only reason the companies in question are making said statements is so that people will buy their products. I'm looking at you, Jobs.
Matt_Rapp
June 06, 2010 at 11:21am
+1
Corsair Obsidian 800D = Win
-Nvida vs. ATI, who cares as long as it maximum!
Rachine35
June 05, 2010 at 9:28pm
I don't see tablets or slates replacing laptops all that quickly as I am an advid gamer and love to play them on my laptop as well as my desktop and there are many just like me all around the world.
M-ManLA
June 05, 2010 at 9:21pm
I think Laptops will still be around in that timeframe. Now Tablets/slates will be encompassed with a lot of new and innovative technology, but so will the laptop. Desktops will always be important, and there will be at least two in every household, with the rest of the devices being mobile.
Electronically charged
