Gartner: Tablet Sales Will Top Traditional PCs By 2017

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Sonic98

I'm not buying. Maybe at some point but not 2017. I work in IT. I was given at iPad at work. I almost never used the thing. Some of the simplest things you can do on a PC, you can't do on an iPad. The only way I seee tablets completely replacing PCs is if a device like the Surface Pro were to really take off. I didn't even start using my iPad until we got cases that came with both a keyboard and stylus. The reason tablet sales are on the rise is because these same people who buy a new cell phone every year are running out buying tablets. These are primarily people who live in an "app world." Corporations will still be full of PCs. Schools and libraries will still have computer labs. People will still want to buy a shared family computer. Then they're also not taking into account that some of these people going out and buying phones and tablets are still going to buy a PC. Remember when everyone was supposed to stop buying desktops and use their laptops as desktop replacements? Eventually the traditional desktop will go away. Yes, BYOD is something that is on the rise, but the PC isn't going away soon. And by the time it does, tablets in their current form won't be the only thing we're talking about.

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nHeroGo

Sales may decline from 340M units to 270M units, but that is still 270M units. People that use computers for working purposes will continue to use computers (desktops and/or laptops) during daytime, and then switch to tablets and phones during non-working hours. Corporations will continue to buy traditional computers from Dell, HP, etc and continue writing them off according to their 3-year tax-plan. Consumers, on the other hand, may fall victim of what ever marketing scheme and trend they are told to fall victim of, sometimes based on flimsy impulse.

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nHeroGo

...we will be ruled by damn dirty apes!
That prediction came true a long time ago.

I predict we need storage to save all our digital stuff (wow, what a prediction). Some will be tricked into storing it for "free" in corporate clouds. Some will store it on local hard drives. Or both. Some will be running their WinXP until 2020. Some will build/convert their old desktops into their own NAS with 10 really large drives, but since we are talking about the future, we might as well add another zero, and make their own "cloud".

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ZX9RDan89

Did gartner take into account that many of us buy separate parts and build our own PCs?

I'm guessing...no.

My opinion doesn't matter

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drevas

I have an ASUS Transformer, and for reading using the Kindle App, basic browsing, and Angry Birds, it's fine.At the same time, even if it had the Hardware Chops, I can't imagine how I would control Tomb Raider on it, or why I would want to. It's O.K. for watching video while I'm in the car waiting for my wife to get off work, but I'd still rather watch video on my Desktop or Big Screen.

Tablets are not a comfortable means of doing real work, and can't adequately satisfy my needs for real play.

Going to go and finish Bioshock Infinite now...

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AFDozerman

Yeah, it's true. People are buying tablets in droves, and the trend will only continue, but you can bet your bottom dollar that I will cling to my desktop format til either it or me is dead!

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thematejka

Gartner is being partially ridiculous. Tablet and phone components are catching up, but they are nowhere near the power required from desktops. If they stopped collecting data from branded PC sales and included sales of components for custom builds and upgrades, they would have different data.

The premise of a tablet or phone (unlike a desktop and some laptops) is that they are simple, which means in the consumer world that you can throw it out. Why? Because you can't tinker with it to increase its longevity. Furthermore, tablets and phones have been marketed much harder than desktops and laptops (and much better in terms of quality advertisement). People are drawn too them from very effective consumer marketing. The PC sector has mostly sucked at good advertising.

Desktops will never go out of style because the power and comfort they provide to long-hour users is so good. There is a slim chance that a tablet will replace my keyboard in terms of comfort.

Lets all keep in mind that the people developing and engineering tablets and phones, and subsequently the people using them, all rely on desktop powerhouses, power-users, and etc. They are an integral part of computing. On this basis, it is absurd, closed-minded, and arrogant to think that tablets and phones will ever pose a real threat. There is no threat. They all have their place. Tablets and phones are used a lot less for meaningful tasks anyways. I don't care if you use a tablet to blog for a living, there are probably 10 quality blogs like yours out there. Tablets and phones are convenience devices that rely deeply on less mobile technology, remember that.

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T-man0717

I agree that PC sales are declining. Is it because there isn't a need? I think not. I think most people are buying Tablets over PC's because Windows 8 is easier to use with a Tablet. I also think that since a Tablet is more powerful than a Smart Phone, they seem a bit more attractive. I also think that the people doing this research aren't looking into individual Desktop components being purchased. Everyone knows that if you want something cheap and not well optioned, then a 3-500 dollar PC from staples or any other PC selling store will do just fine. If you want lots of options and top of the line hardware you build it yourself.

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SirFrag

I'm sorry...tablets are not comfortable for real work. And they never will be. For sitting on my couch and browsing facebook...sure. For responding to e-mails? Cumbersome. For doing anything else? Impossible.

There's something to be said about a PC as a workstation to get work done. A good physical keyboard will always trump a touchscreen. There's just no way the accuracy and speed can be achieved without the touch of a keyboard.

Tablets are not ergonomic. They tire the hands and arms while trying to be used. They're bad for the neck when placed on a surface.

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ronmccord

When the tablet can do everything that the laptop and the desktop can do you bet it will sell the most. It is not there yet. However I could see myself using one if it was more the convertible style. Rugged 12 inch tablet convertible, with gaming quality graphics. On the go I would use the keyboard to do work. I could have clients sign with a stylus the touch screen. On the plane watch movies with it. At home attach it to my 30 inch screen. Right now there is not a small mobile laptop yet that can do everything but they are getting closer. The New Asus 14 inch gaming laptop with a 660m is about as good as it gets right now for power, quietness and looks but fails in the battery dept which is 4 hrs and you can add another battery. So you see the perfect laptop yet is not there yet and slates will be right behind laptops. I actually think in 2 years we may be there with laptops and slates. I would be satisfied with a haswell laptop/slate and an external graphics dock myself but also would be happy with a Alienware/Asus 14 inch travel laptop with 680m power which was quiet and cool running and a cheap Amazon kindle to check email and watch movies for 2 day trips or less... either way Computer Nirvana is comine. For those of you holding onto your huge ugly desktops, you will be shrinking in number no doubt and may very well be extinct by 2017. The small itx cases of today can fit a Titan video card in them, except for a very few cases this will handle 99.9% of any computer task. Remember you guys about to say heh I love my 3 gtx 680 sli setup etc. Remember you are 1 in a thousand and you are enjoying a hobby more likely then a need.

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Ghok

Desktop PCs are just more of a luxury now. A smaller portable device is more practical and versatile than a desktop PC, and if many people can only have one computing device, that's probably the smart choice.

In addition to the big screen and solid keyboard, to me, the main draw of a PC is the pure performance for money, and the ability to easily repair and upgrade the device. I hate to admit it, but many people don't have these needs.

Laptops are nice and many people will never need anything more than a laptop. Maybe they'll buy a big monitor and a keyboard so they can easily switch it to function like a desktop. This is a good solution for a lot of people.

I dislike laptops because a good one is expensive, they don't last as long as desktop computers in my experience, and you can't do much upgrading to them. Again, I doubt the average consumer cares as much about these things. They just buy something and use it until it breaks.

Tablets are fine, ideal for many common tasks, but are in no way a replacement for a desktop PC or laptop. I think the idea that the majority of people were using computers only to surf the web is really exaggerated.

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galgotha

They need analyze the real question "Is content and software coming out that requires people to have such a quick replacement path strategy for PC's anymore?". I believe the answer is no. Looking at the Steam Stats which is based on 5.2M users the average users is still on a duo core 2.3-2.6 Ghz CPU. As long as software has platued on requirements or is designed with the average user able to use it, ie look at games released as see they still have minimums or recommends with 775 CPU's meet or exceed consumers won't be pushed to upgrade like we were in past.

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Granite

A year ago I build a desktop with the intention that it'll last me 5+ years. That's a minimum of 2 years longer than I've ever gone without upgrading/rebuilding. So, yeah...the sale of PC parts, at least, will decline because of me.

I've also bought an Asus Android tablet for mobile/on the go uses, so yeah...tablet sales increased because of me.

But my tablet...or even a Win8 Pro tablet...will never replace my desktop with its dual 680's and dual 27" monitors.

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dtlmunkey

I'm curious as to how they collect their data. Do they consider that a large percentage of computer enthusiasts buy their PC's as individual components. If so, by their count I have never owned a PC, but have owned 2 tablets. In reality, I've build 6 or 7 PC's just for myself. Also, I think that businesses will stay the desktop route in the future in order to prevent employees from taking their computers home, and/or stealing them when they leave the company. Don't get me wrong I think the tablet market will continue to grown, but there are so many things the tablet will never be able to do, and thus will never completely overtake the desktop/notebook. I have no doubt they will have the computing power for many things, but the display will never be large enough for things like CAD, Video Editing, Publishing, DMC, etc.

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don2041

I agree. Every computer I have owned I built from scratch or refurbished an older one,at least 30. I've never owned a tablet, they just don't appeal to me.

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don2041

More than half the people I know used their desktops only for email and facebook They now buy tablets to do this so no longer upgrade to new computers. Over the next few years as tablets become more powerfull and cheaper this trend will continue. There will always be a need for desktops to do the bullwork on a big screen.

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Nixon

Well I'm sure tablet sales will go up. They're like disposable cameras when compared, cheap and quickly replaced (unless you're crazy enough to invest $1k+ in one.)

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edchombeau

Again they look at the work-a-day people; forgetting the retired.
I spend hours a day on my desktop at home ; need a big screen that's easy to read.
For our traveling we have good laptops and standard cell phones.
We don';t need to stay connected 24/7. Have no business that cannot wait.
Again, we are retired. Baby boomers are coming of age now.
I may get a get big screen all in one--but why? really don't have a space problem. I will always have the room for a stantard desktop. I'm using my "desktop replacement" laptop now; for a change of scenery in another room with a view.

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USraging

A tablet has it place, but a desktop or laptop still has its place also, depends on what you are doing. I use my Galaxy note 10.1 mostly for reading articles or G+ streams. I still find it slow and difficult sometimes to send messages on touch screens so i pair it with a bluetooth keyboard. When i am doing work creating large important docs or just doing things that i want to get done as fast and efficient as possible i still use my desktop, which i also game with. I find it hard to believe that a tablet is a replacement, its more of a addition to that is portable and has a longer battery life than a laptop for on the go.

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Shalbatana

PC sales are slow because most people have enough in their home already that serve their purposes. Most people do not have enough tablets in their home yet, especially one that does all they want. When everyone has one or two tablets, and when tablets do all we want, then sales will slow as well.

That is the only reason one is selling better than the other, should one really want to compare apples to oranges.

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edchombeau

those of use that are retired and those that work at home surely prefer to work with a big screen.

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QuantumCD

Wouldn't be surprised. Most of the market for PC's is in content consumption, which really these tablets do better as they are more portable and have longer battery lives, etc. Then there is that percentage of people that do content creation and high-end PC tasks. I highly doubt that a tablet is going to be rendering faster than a high-end workstation, no matter the cost. Same with gaming, unless Nvidia/AMD can somehow shrink a full-size GPU down to basically a chip and still continue to increase performance to match the latest games.

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