Extreme Analysis: Android, iOS Will Kill the PC

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kixofmyg0t

As someone who uses my Xoom way more than a traditional PC....I can see where he's coming from.

Android itself is evolving, and I think by version 6 or 7 it will be encroaching on traditional desktops and laptops.

Of course the "purists" here will scoff at the idea. Completely baffled to why everyone doesn't own a super overclocked SLI full tower 500w+ custom built rig.....and would be interested in a ecosystem where everything works the same if its on your phone....tablet....or laptop. (Here's a hint, you're the minority)

Android still has a long way to go before taking over though. But for 90% of users, its perfectly useable and can already fit most peoples needs.

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bling581

"Of course the "purists" here will scoff at the idea. Completely baffled to why everyone doesn't own a super overclocked SLI full tower 500w+ custom built rig.....and would be interested in a ecosystem where everything works the same if its on your phone....tablet....or laptop. (Here's a hint, you're the minority)"

That's getting pretty extreme and it's not really true. Even basic users want to do things that a tablet just can't do. Want to install any software program on a CD/DVD? Not possible. Even my dad who can barely use the internet has asked me to help him install software for his GPS, install lake map software, or software he needed for his job. My parents use their digital video and photo camera often. If they had no PC where would they store all their media? The max storage capacity on an iPad is 64 GB. You know how fast that would fill up shooting photos and movies in HD? Want to burn them on a DVD? Nope, can't.

I can think of tons of examples of how even the most casual computer user has needs that a tablet cannot do.

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kixofmyg0t

People still use DVD's?!?

Lol I'm just kidding. The only thing I used my optical drive for in the last two years is ripping Blu-Ray movies I rent from Redbox and burning one CD because I wanted something to listen to in my car when my iPod Touch dies(which is often, thanks Apple) and nothing is good on iHeart Radio.(don't like being tracked by Pandora).

I never "shoot movies in HD" so that's not a problem. Also I just stream everything I wanna watch either from my HTPC, Netflix, Hulu etc.

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Holly Golightly

I am sorry, but these primitive cellphones will never out place the importance of a PC which has always been state-of-the-art and cutting edge. I think these guys have been drinking too much Apple juice. That stuff is just toxic. 1/26/2012... Goodbye Verizon. Anyhow, everybody knows that cellphones can not replace computers at work or universities. So what does that say? The form factor does not work.

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kixofmyg0t

Primitive? Stop using a Nokia then.

In my field having a cell phone/tablet is much more effective than trying to use our "work" computers. Our "work" computers arnt connected to the internet and we can't use flash drives on the ones that are.

As I said below in another post, its much easier (for me at least) to work from cell phone/tablet. I can keep all my work related documents on them and make changes to them quickly. In fact my Xoom is infinitely faster than our government issue Dell's(which are the only ones we are allowed to use...they're issued to us).....which still run Vista. Not all PCs are "state of the art" and "cutting edge" like you said. Its quite the opposite.

Email is another thing. I haven't sent or received a email(work related or personal) from a tradition "PC" in over a year. Its MUCH MUCH easier to do all of that from a phone/tablet. Also the last time I visited maximumpc.com on a traditional "PC" was January 2011. This entire last year, every single comment, every single article read.....was from my Xoom. Its really easy to go without a PC actually.

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Holly Golightly

Who ever said I was using a Nokia? My university does have Dell computers... But these old computers have something all cellphones do not have... And that is an actual USB connection with drivers that support their network and connect to their printers. They use Ethernet cables to connect to a fiber optic network. I can not do this with a cellphone no matter which brand I go for.

Cellphones often come with expensive monthly surcharges and really long contracts that go beyond the life of any handset. This is why I say cellphones are primitive. $300 for a handset locked in a 2 year contract. $350 to disconnect early. Standard phone bill after taxes? About $60 to $100 depending which state you live in. So to keep that cellphone connected, I will need to spend about $2,700 just so I can use it for 2 years. This is a bit extreme... Don't you think.

Believe it or not, I agree with you on the whole tablet thing. But I see it from a different perspective. You see, Tablets are like cellphones without the GSM/CDMA mess. All I need to do is download Skype onto that Motorola Xoom, and what I have is a phone service without the bill. Tablets are bigger, and as the old saying goes, "bigger is better." They have long battery life than cellphones. They are more affordable to service than a cellphone. Therefore, tablets are the evolution of cellphones.

We have to separate what is mobility, and what is productivity. A big Hollywood studio can not make the best special effects on a tiny 10" touch screen. Desktops give us that option to have cutting edge technology so we can have more power to make better special effects. Hospitals need desktops to keep their records. Tablets, cellphones, or anything mobile can pose a security threat if they were to land on the wrong hands. These mobile computers are very easy to steal. Hackers could also remotely access it if their servers are connected via WiFi. It is just safer to have an upgradeable desktop. Plus, desktops have a longer usable lifespan where cellphones need to be replaced every 2 years.

This is why cellphones are primitive. No native connections, limited lifespan, and poor performance. As a PC gamer, I can not enjoy the best graphics. Angry Birds is not cool like S.T.A.L.K.E.R. and Metro 2033 which take full advantage of Direct X 11. I like having my computer connected to a big screen. Mine is connected to a 32" TV and playing games on it truly gives me that immersive experience I can only get on a powerful, upgradeable desktop.

As for your job... I have never seen a Dell that had no USB connections. It might be very old... Like over 10 years old or something. If that is the case, then I can fully understand why you dislike the computers you have at work. I can connect any USB flash drive I please onto any of the school computers no problem. I think power users will always need a bigger screen with an upgradeable rig. Everyone else can use their tablets and cellphone for basic things... For more advanced stuff, small screens and limited power just does not cut it. Now, I will get a tablet to replace my cellphone. So I am half way there with you in that regard.

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kixofmyg0t

First off, I agree with you about cell phone bills being expensive. But I get paid with tax dollars...so I don't really care.

I need to clarify that our work PC's do have USB drives....they are all disabled. Hard disabled. The gimped version of Vista the feed us is damn near useless. Printing is horrible. If it actually prints, its apain in the ass to go find what printer it actually printed out from. 99% its never in the same building you're in. Case in point-The NIPR connected Dell in our office can print....but the networked printer its allowed access to is in another building 1/2 mile away. By the time you print and drive over to squadron to get it someone has already thrown it in the trash cuz they were trying to copy something at the same time.

Your tax dollars are well spent lol. :)

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Mortal_M

Wow Holly, don't take this the wrong way, but you need to start writing like this more often :)

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torusya

1- totally agree on 99% you are saying
2 - usb at his work, i think they have it but just like the most companies, and i agree with them, any usb drive is a major problem 1- it is the easiest way for the virus to spread, 2 - security, noone wants people to copy documents and take them back home or whatever, but ther eis no reason 1 should be using it. if you are working from home, you can use a work laptop or (welcome to 2012) use remote desktop!

And yes, we don't have to go far, it is not only about fancy graphics from Hollywood, a simple excel spreadsheet is such a pain on a tablet, and when you need to open 2 of those and compare, have fun on your tablet ;)

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Mortal_M

And don't forget about macros and using VBA in Exell, good luck doing that in a smartphone/tablet.

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QuadraQ

PC's are probably going to change significantly over the next ten years and mobile devices and operating systems will play a role. The "normal" user is afraid of the current PC and may even hate them. The mobile operating systems have succeeded at attracting these folks. That trend will continue.

On the other hand software has always driven hardware and the enormous software library on Windows still has great value. So PC's with Windows will stick around for a long time, but they aren't the hotness they once were.

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pazinboise

PCs as we know it currently probably won't die but I do agree that they will eventually be a niche product for the everyday retail consumer.

Power users be it recreational or professional will always need something that is power and can upgraded so it think PC will always be there for them. Business will ultimately use what ever is cost effective and efficient. For now that means PC but one day that could be a different story.

The reality is for the common user tablets and smarts phones are growing in capability faster than the users demands and thus will eventually take over as their primary computing device.

I'm sure the near future the majority of users will have a smart phone or tablet that they use like they are being used currently and when they need to increase functionality they will simply have a key board, mouse, and larger display that it can sync with.

Ultimately in the near future I see cheap PCs ($250-$400) dropping out off first and as mobile device get more powerful it will move up the chin until all that's left is higher end PCs.

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terracide

new consoles are a long way off and a lot of new people are getting interested in seeing what all the pc gaming fuss is about.. Im not so sure about PCs being dead, and calling the death of pcs using the consumer market as the only benchmark is ridiculous.

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torusya

i dont understand why we are still talking about it...
1. pc = desktops + laptops + netbooks + MOBILE devices!!!
yes, Personal computer might get smaller, YES we are getting better at technologies and we dont need an entire room to fit 1 pc...
but saying that pc will die is just stupid,
its like saying that fast/super cars will die because your new prius has same GPS and better mile per gallon... LOL
there will always be people that want more power, being it Horse power or more cores in you CPU, and there are some thing where SIZE MATTERS.. i know right:)

So... will we use ipads, yes they are mobile and they are easy when you need to check email or google something.
will we use PC, YES if you want to be able to play BF3/skyrim, install and create mods or simply (and which is more importantly) WORK... yes, WORK, MOST of the company's workers (99%) of any big company sitting at a COMPUTER (being it a laptop or a desktop) and using Word, Excel, Photoshop and many more, all at the same time...
and i agree, ipads and other tables will get to the point where they can handle things like multiple apps and being able to run Photoshop... but do you want to use 2 24" monitors when you work with small numbers in excel on one screen and some crazy insurance program on another, or do you want to look at your small 10" screen and poke it with your finger all the time? i want to see how your productivity goes with an ipad :)

Once again, i dont hate on tables, i think they are great, but there are just too many thing that a small screen can't replace...

Thanks to all!

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Mortal_M

agree 100% with what you said, tablets/smartphones are an add on to our PC experience, they make it a better PC experience, but won't replace them.

And also... That's what she said :P

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dakishimesan

this.

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Phrish

"Horace Dediu, the guy in charge of Asymco, a company that sells software development and consulting services for companies interested in deploying mobile applications..."

Who? What? WTF company/person is this? I don't even believe this blabber coming from top industry pundits, company presidents, and tech celebs.

New report just in, Joe Schmoe just bought a digital watch and proclaims PC computing dead, dead, dead. LOL.

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patcor1662

Do I see PC sales drop due to the development of these mobile platforms? Undoubtedly yes. The reason for this decline is simply because the majority of people using computers have more computer than they actually need. Most people use the PC simply to get on the internet and to check and send email.

Using portable computing devices are easy and do not require much in the way of education to use. With the next iteration of Windows on the horizon, this type of interface comes to the PC. Portable computing devices will always lag in terms of functionality and capability behind a PC. Price point to price point, you pay more for portability and sacrifice computing power. You get more PC for the price.

There is a place for both, but I highly doubt mobile platforms will completely replace the PC.

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kixofmyg0t

As someone who primarily uses a tablet over a PC....I have to mention I haven't sent a email from a traditional PC in over a year. I'm only at home long enough to eat or sleep, I'm always at work or on the road or in the field. My phone and tablet provide me with alot of what I need a "PC" for.

In fact the only thing I have used my PC for recently was Photoshop.....I keep my PC off all the time. Its simply not needed.

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Dissonance

They've dropped $100 so we're more willing to pony up $30 a month for 4 gigabytes of internet? Wow.

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bling581

People forget that a major player is businesses and while tablets can easily replace PC's at home I'd like to see a business try to function with only tablets. A small mom and pop shop maybe, but your average business definitely not.

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someuid

"Horace Dediu, the guy in charge of Asymco, a company that sells software development and consulting services for companies interested in deploying mobile applications"

Yeah, so his business is selling mobile applications and he thinks mobile platforms will become supreme and desktop workstations will fall to the wayside.

Really. This isn't a study. It is a sales pitch.

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routine

Honestly...

I think the PC is dead. Why would grandma buy a PC when she can have an iPad for $500?

PCs will always be around for us, hard-core gamers, geeks, etc... but for everyone else, I see multiple iPads in the house to replace multiple PCs.

The laptop replaced the desktop in the home. The iPad will replace the laptop (if it hasn't already).

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majorsuave

Grandma can have a PC for 200$ Why would she buy an ipad for 500$?

Besides, what moron will type and format his resume on a smartphone?

Every human still need a PC and will in 10 years from now

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kixofmyg0t

What "moron" you say? Well it was much easier to keep all of my arms room documents on my phone. Much easier to keep with me so I could make changes on the fly and save them than trying to use work computers-which weren't connected to the internet and we can't plug flash drives into them.

My phone and tablet are encrypted btw.

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routine

Because she doesn't need to think to use an iPad -- and iPad prices will come down, too.

I'm not saying PCs are going away.. I'm just saying, in 3/5/10 years, people will do most of their "work" on a tablet-like device.

I'm a programmer, so I'll always have a PC. As I'm sure so will you. I'm talking about the vast majority of users tho.

The PC will be a niche market. That's my 2 cents -- take it or leave it.

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bling581

Laptops still have the same functionality and OS software so I would consider them grouped in with "PC's". I think the debate is really desktops/notebooks/netbooks versus tablets.

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Neufeldt2002

I do agree that the PC will shrink in size and that some homes will be PC (as we know it)free in the future. I know some people, as I am sure everyone here does, that only use their PC for email and web browsing. It makes sense for those people to have a tablet or other device that can do what they want, they just don't need a PC. But I just don't see the PC dieing off, an equalization in market, yes, but not dieing.

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bling581

The problem with these people is that they are most likely casual computer users and all they do is read email and surf the web. A lot of people may be replacing their PC's with tablets for doing just that, but that's all. There's so many things a tablet or phone can't do that a PC can.

These studies and articles are produced by people who don't have a clue. If they had a clue they wouldn't be spouting such BS to the world.

Can it play Crysis? If not it's junk to me.

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routine

Grandma doesn't play Crysis -- and neither does my mom.

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Danno25002

But she probably plays Angry Birds or something. Try developing that on a tablet/smartphone.

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bling581

Which is why a tablet might be good for them as mentioned in my post. Did you read it?

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avenger48

That's a terrible analysis. If we were to call cell phones computers five years ago, we would still see the PC market share drop, perhaps further. Android and iOS devices are mostly smartphones, which people are using to replace cell phones. Very few people can just have an iPad or Kindle Fire and not have a PC. They each have something that they're good at.

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Ashton2091

Agreed. They are nice companions to PCs, but not replacements. A friend of mine asked if I thought it would be a good idea to replace her laptop with a iPad. Naturally, I told her that its a very bad idea. I said look at it this way, smartphones and tablets connect to you PC. Your PC doesn't need to connect to your smartphone or tablet. When a smartphone or tablet is bricked for whatever reason...the PC comes to the rescue.

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