Epic: Photo-Realistic Graphics Still 10-15 Years out of Reach
Posted 05/27/09 at 05:40:04 AM by Nathan Grayson
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If, ten years ago, you’d told us that graphics would eventually look as nice as they do now, we wouldn’t have believed you. But that’s mostly because you’re not Epic Games founder Tim Sweeney. That guy – he knows his stuff. So carve a bunch of obtrusive red Xs across every calendar day between May 27, 2019 and May 27, 2024, because according to Sweeney, that’s (approximately) when we’re gonna see photo-realistic videogame graphics.
“We're only about a factor of a thousand off from achieving all that in real-time without sacrifices. So we'll certainly see that happen in our lifetimes; it's just a result of Moore's Law. Probably 10-15 years for that stuff, which isn't far at all. Which is scary -- we'll be able to saturate our visual systems with realistic graphics at that point,” he told Gamasutra.
But that’s only half of the equation. Sweeney also noted that visuals as we know them go far beyond immaculate wall textures and sizzling explosions. People matter too – and even with all the computing power in the world, that particular Rubik’s Cube won’t soon be solved.
“It's anything that requires simulating human intelligence or behavior: animation, character movement, interaction with characters, and conversations with characters. They're really cheesy in games now,” he explained.
“And unfortunately, all of that's not just a matter of computational power, because if we had infinitely fast computers now, we still wouldn't be able to solve that, because we just don't have the algorithms; we don't know how the brain works or how to simulate it.”
Still though – 10 or 15 years. We actually plan on being alive at that point! Now then, other industries, it’s time for you to fulfill your respective ends of the bargain. Hoverboards, jetpacks, and tight-fitting spandex suits, we expect to see you front-and-center when we christen Neo Future Earth in about a decade. We can’t start the show without you!
But...But...
Submitted by avenger48 on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 7:09pm
I thought we were all going to die in 2012?! NOW what do I do with all that spam and powdered milk I was saving?
Seriously, though, we aren't that far off. Look at Crysis, when every leaf is rendered individually, do you really need much more? (Although ten to fifteen years ago I'm sure they were saying the same thing about games like doom)
Submitted by Shckr57 on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 2:27pm
ok, it sounds like this might be the biggist it will get but think about it. I can't wait for the day when games use particles, like atoms. Instead of a texture being painted onto a flat surface, have trillions of little particles, represent a sandy beach. This would bring a TRULY destructable environment. imagine that. a rocket hits a piece of plywood and the thousands of splinters go everywhere, bounce off walls, and DON'T disapear after a few seconds. after a war it would actually look like a war just happened, not just a black circle on the ground representing where a tank shell just landed. Waves would be so realistic. so what if a picture LOOKS like a picture, I want the enviroment to be real, that would be amazing.
half life 2 lost coast
Submitted by Yusonice on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 1:31pm
hasn't photo realism been achieved already? Look at half life 2 lost coast. And that is with dx 9 !
Submitted by van_helblaze on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 12:51pm
My question is, what will happen once games do reach the photorealistic mark. Once it can be done with a single gpu, then there will be no more need for SLI/Crossfire. It's bound to happen sooner or later. The only people who will be running multiple GPU's at some point will only be running them to use more monitors.
Who says SLI/Crossfire won't
Submitted by I Jedi on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 2:10pm
Who says SLI/Crossfire won't be obsolete long before we reach that point? Got to remember that the computer industry is ALWAYS changing. The newest technology that we, the consumers, get is almost always outdated from the very newest out there. One day a single GPU may be totally enough power to handle video games five or 10-years down the road.
my guess is goignto be once
Submitted by nekollx on Tue, 06/02/2009 - 12:27pm
my guess is goignto be once we have photo real GPUs that the future GPU upgrades will be some sort of AI card. A Dedicated GPU/Physics/AI solution
Photo-realistic is not a priority, to me
Submitted by Wildebeast on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 9:52am
I'd rather see excellent path-finding, smart AI (so npcs don't have to use "cheats"), and innovative use of multiplayer, than photo-realism. I guess of all of these, the AI will be the very last we get...
I'd probably be willing to go back to Legend of Zelda 1 style graphics for a game that had those other features.
I agree...FEAR had the best
Submitted by AntiHero on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 11:28am
I agree...FEAR had the best AI of most games i've seen. I like the L4D Director though, picks good surprising times.
I don't like Microsoft, I associate with it.
Submitted by N25PHILLY on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 8:21am
Stick around for the next 10-30 years. he way advances in technology are progressing I think there are going to be a lot of things coming that most people have never even imagined. I mean I read about graphene the other day, a material found in the lead in pencils that is believed to allow processors that could go up to 1000ghz. I think something like that might push up this prediction and a number of other things.
Submitted by jtrpop on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 7:45am
Hopefully by then the storylines will be much better than the photorealistic Final Fantasy.
Submitted by DOOMHAMMA on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 6:32am
Will realistic graphics become too gruesome for people to enjoy FPS games?
Prefercence!
Submitted by Havok on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 4:53am
Beleive it or don't, I personally liked the second Unreal graphics engine a lot. Just something about it. Nostalgia maybe.
OMGWTFBBQ
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