Blackberry CEO Believes Phones Will Be The Primary Computing Device Within Ten Years

36

Comments

+ Add a Comment
avatar

RtDK

Really...? Will I be able to upgrade the hardware of my phone like I can my desktop? Will I be able to do that with a tablet or smartphone? Hell, most laptops can even upgrade their RAM or storage device. Will I be able to do that and avoid throwing away the device altogether, like I can with my desktop?

No? Yeah, I didn't think so....

avatar

pastorbob

I could see this happening if and only if I can interface it with three monitors, printer, keyboard and mouse. It would also have to accomodate all of my research software and tools, MS Office (or similar office suite), all of my photos (10,000+), and my 300 gig music collection gathered over the last 25 years.

avatar

maseone

He's wrong, but not for the reasons stated here. TEN YEARS?!?! 90% of my non-tech nerd friends ONLY have cell phones. They do ALL their computing needs - Facebook, Pinterest, Yelp, etc... No desktop computer whatsoever. That is TODAY. Ten years? This is why BlackBerry is failing. Samsung and Apple (hate those guys) are ruling because they understand that TODAY is the day of the mobile device. Not ten years from now.

Fi Reel Mon!
m1

avatar

RtDK

I can't imagine life without my gaming desktop, my ultrabook, and our gaming consoles. Maybe some people can live with just a phone if they literally do nothing but game, web browse, and email. But try writing up a real document or spreadsheet or etc. on your phone compared to how easy it is on a real computer. And talk about eye-straining too.

No thanks. I'll keep all my tech Heins. Thank ya much.

avatar

ichintu

Even if that were to happen not saying it will. I am sure it will not be a RIM device.

avatar

kamikaji

Just another delusional CEO making ridiculous and grandios claims.......move along..............nothing to see here.............

avatar

bling581

This is overly optimistic. I agree with the statement that use of mobile devices is increasing and will continue to, but I don't see them becoming the primary computing device for most people. They are quite horrible in proficiency compared to PC/Mac in most tasks.

avatar

zepolnavi

in my opinion Thorsten Heins is right.....I use my phone to check emails and surf the internet ...but to do work and research, I use my computer rarely use .......

avatar

mh15216

I can't help but belief this RIMjob is "Shock Jockey'ing" and saying absurd things about the future that are so obscure and cause so much commentary and create such a glorious breadth of attention to "blackberry this, and blackberry that" that it's hard not to believe these assinine statements aren't by design to gather attention to a flailing company who's lost more market share than Snoop Dogg has lost street cred.

avatar

thematejka

Many more people will probably use them, yes, I think he is right. But my question is this: Will a phone be able to match the power of my rig (Phenom X6 1100T, an HD 6870, and 8GB of RAM) in 10 years? Probably not, and that's not powerful by currently available bar-setting components. There would have to be some sort of a major (MAJOR) leap in technology to ever bring phones up to current desktop/laptop power and speed. If they can cram such power in a phone, I'll buy into it, but I don't see it happening (maybe, yet).

Software demands more and more from hardware all the time, and desktops/laptops are necessary for many important applications. I don't know if phones will catch up. I'll see it when it happens.

avatar

Insurgence

His jab towards Android is stupid. Reality is, Linux is open and it is fairly secure. If Android is unsecure, then it is because of Google's design flaws, not because it is open.

As for the phone being the only computing device. Technology will advance, and unless they can get the phones to advance parallel to computers I do not see it becoming the defacto standard, especially not in ten years. Everyone will have one, and it will most likely be more common, if it is not already than any other computing device out there, but the larger form factor of current PC's allows them to be better capable of handling newer more advanced technology that the smaller more compact form factor of a phone. What I do see is that they standard form factor's for other computing devices, including PC's will become smaller. We are already seeing that trend. The problem is that they need to get businesses to move to the new setup, and that will not happen until phones have an image of productivity and security, not just the image of socialization that they currently have.

avatar

NavarWynn

I hate to say it, but he's probably right (even though Blackberry will likely be long dead by then)... for 90% of consumers, having a phone that they can drop into a cradle (mainly to charge) at the desk, which then pops up onto their desktop monitor and keyboard and mouse, would be more than adequate. Tell me the apple hipsters wouldn't love that (in fact, I'd bet Apple is working on it now ;-) ). Silly games, the net, document/email/office creation/editing, basic photo editing, and... Well crap they can do all that NOW.

The phones are already powerful enough to do everything and more than a netbook could do, and a chromebook can do. Hell, my phone has more cores than my wife's laptop (and is only 300mhz slower), I think the bottom line is that the only things that a CURRENT top of the line phone can't do are serious content creation and serious gaming. I doubt they'll ever be able to do either, simply from a capacity, capability, and lifetime perspective...
But how many people do either now?... certainly not the majority.

avatar

davey062

Android can already dual boot with Ubuntu. You can dock it and goes to full desktop usage on anything with an hdmi. Also Ubuntu has a phone in the works.

avatar

LatiosXT

As a content consumption device, phones and mobile is the top spot. As content creation devices? No. Fat chance.

Moore's law isn't going to last forever and we'll be pushing its limit in those 10 years, at least for silicon. The latest mobile processors don't hold a candle against a cheap Celeron chip, and they're expecting them to essentially replace what we have now?

avatar

gamewizard

I agree could you imagine trying to compile code on a smart phone the compile time would be atrocious.

avatar

I Jedi

Over the years computer tech gods have been wrong about the direction of PC when they made a stance that things wouldn't happen. Case in point, when Bill Gates said no one would ever need more than 640kb of memory. Yet, if the interface of smartphones does not change from current ways, the only people stupid enough to do important work on a smartphone will be hipsters.

avatar

praetor_alpha

"Case in point, when Bill Gates said no one would ever need more than 640kb of memory."

I have no clue what you're talking about, because he didn't say that.

avatar

I Jedi

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Bill_Gates#640K.2F1MB

It would seem as if the quote may or may not be factual.

avatar

Insula Gilliganis

The genesis of Gates' "640K is Enough" quotes comes from an INFOWORLD column from April 29, 1985 which said "When we set the upper limit of PC-DOS at 640K, we thought nobody would ever need that much memory", but this "quote" has no citation nor is it even in quotes.

A history of this quote can be found at "quoteinvestigator.com/2011/09/08/640k-enough/" - No sourced material has been found with this direct quote per "en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Bill_Gates" - If Gates did say this at a computer trade show in 1981, it was not documented at that time.

avatar

Hey.That_Dude

I bet his company website is hosted on a Linux machine. Last I checked, that was open source.
That man is a piece of work. Things are generally MORE secure if it's open source.
The issue is people don't know how to code for a Linux environment, which gives them code that has exploits. If anything I blame M$ for that. EVERYONE I know grew up learning how to do everything with M$. No one knows how to program for the Linux kernal. Therefore, we get coders who have honest intentions, have no idea what they're doing inside of linux, and aren't paid enough to care(so long as it works, they get paid).

avatar

warptek2010

When you think limited computing power, limited screen real estate, limited human input and just limited function overall he's just dead wrong.

avatar

Insurgence

He is thinking that accessories would help. Such as dropping a phone into a dock that will then output to a Keyboard, Display and Mouse. It's already been done, Atrix 4G, Asus Transformer, etc. My problem is that their are things limiting the phones usability as anything beyond what they are.

They are behind computers in processing power. Their form factor limits their ability compete with a computer in that arena. Which means that you are not going to be doing much beyond standard computer tasks like email, spreadsheets and documents. Nothing that will take serious processing power.

They are more insecure than a computer because of their ability and the increased likely hood that they will travel with the user. Laptops have that issue, but even with laptops you get people who do not want to take them everywhere because they are still a burden. Also the main focus on phones has not been security.

Anything that is not x86 based does not have the proper software library. In some cases the software on a phone is exceptional, but from my experience majority of that software is geared towards being on a phone or tablet. They also have a strong tendency to be fairly simple applications when compared to their desktop counter parts, office applications are a shining example of this.

I am certain their is more, but that is just what came off of the top of my head.

avatar

raymondcarver

I couldn't have said it better than Warptek2010.

CEO Thorsten Heins doesn't look like a power-user. This " fully mobile future" is coming, but it's not going to replace THE AWESOME CRUNCHING POWER AND RESOLUTION OF DESKTOPS/multi-HD LAPTOPS/mini-DESKTOPS.

SOC (System On a Chip) systems are way under-powered for even pushing large amounts of data, much less being a home's only computing power.

Maybe there's some test-markets in profitable sectors of Asia, but this isn't the reality of the computing world, much less owners (and real users) of DSLR cameras.

avatar

don2041

These smart phones are more internet browsing devices than they are computing devices. I do a lot of heavy video editing & encoding and cannot see myself waiting several hours for an encode to complete. These phones don't come close to having the power to do these types of chores. They will have to get a lot larger to make room for a decent video card.

avatar

gmvolk

Yes, smart phones by themselves could not do anything needing power to do, ie video encoding. But imagine if when put into a docking stand, it will power and/or supply credentials/storage/personal settings etc then you get a full PC experience. The docking stand would have to host the horsepower, but the phone would supply the brain. I think that's what blackberry is getting at, your phone is your primary device, but peripherals hooked to it will enable it to do more.

avatar

Gezzer

Whoa.. put away the crystal ball, your scaring me!
One of the safest predictions ever made, lol.
There's only one potential fly in the ointment. The PC succeeded because IBM felt that it could be an open standard with their proprietary BIOS protecting their IP. Well we all know how that turned out. But it does prove how open standards will propel adoption. Anyone think we'll see open hardware/software standards in regards to this predicted out come? I'd say no, and this fact could produce a nightmare of "walled gardens" to choose from. It could also effect the rate of innovation we'll see. R&D is expensive, but once your locked into a company's offerings by the high cost of replacement they gain the power to dictate what you can, and can not, do. And more importantly what lengths they have to go to to keep you as a customer. We're currently seeing this with Windows 8 and Apple. It could be a step back to the pre PC days where everything was proprietary, and that won't be a good thing IMHO.

avatar

Renegade Knight

The Ubuntu phone and tablet have been announced. There is potential there.

avatar

chronium

You've left out Android from your assumptions it's open enough that it's going to end up being the new Windows. The current state of the mobile marketplace is probably around the early 90's to mid 90's of the PC market. It will take around 10 years for things to settle down with mobile technology to have the smooth progression of advancement we've seen this past 10 years with PC hardware.

avatar

Opm2

People miss the obvious.

The mouse and keyboard. The most congruent input method for humans has remained functionally unchanged for decades. Until something comes along that supersedes these interfacing form factors, Nothing will overtake devices utilizing them.

I think the kinect is the latest input device that comes the closest, but it still years away from being more efficient.

avatar

raymondcarver

also: this

I still can't get my some of my console-gaming friends to adopt a keyboard/mouse.

But, those same friends, when I set them down to play WWII Call of Duty, in my college apartment, were transfixed. They even said they could really get used to, and would miss: the ergonomic, high-backed manager's office chair; the high-DPI mouse; the ergonomic keyboard; and eye-level 24" monitor.

I think that combo is the reason they'd always come back to game, burn/manage music media, work on photos, and type papers at my place. ...

Nothing beats, or has ever come close to, the high-backed chair/mouse/keyboard combination.

avatar

PCWolf

Today's smart phones are nothing more than Micro tablets with a Microphone & Phone Software. They are great for doing certain things, but to think that these UNDERPOWERED Devices can replace a Modern Desktop is foolish. The Only Desktops today's phones can replace are those old single core 1.8ghz models made 11+ yrs ago. I do Agree that Android is a Security Nightmare, & that Google Needs to Fix it. Battery killing Apps running uncontrolled in the Background doing god knows what & NO WAY to stop them unless you uninstall the Apps. carrierIQ anyone?

avatar

raymondcarver

People have hacked OSX to run on Netbooks.

Making cell-tower phone calls aside,
Can't we somehow optimize/hack Win7 to run on some of these small, SOC devices?

avatar

AFDozerman

It already is most people's normal computing device. That isn't up for dispute. What is up for dispute is what will become of the desktop formactor. Pople using a desktop with an X86 processor might end up being like me going out and buying a 15000 dollar POWER 7+ system to run in my house. Yeah, it's got insane amounts of power, but what applications do I have to run on it? I would have to run some form of red hat linux or BSD on it and then port open source software to it for it to be useful. Not exactly a situation I would be willing or able to get myself into. Hopefully, that won't be the situation, but it's possible and very likely due to the way companies are beginning to look at desktops.

avatar

Renegade Knight

When they can pack i7 and GTX690 power in a phone I believe phones just might be the computing device of choice. Plug it in a dock and replace your desktop would actually work then.

Yeah some could get buy with i3 and HD5000.

avatar

DeltaFIVEengineer

If their latest gamble doesn't pay off, no one will remember who Blackberry is 10 years from now.

avatar

Blaze589

Blackberry was wrong before...
My money is on Android...

Log in to MaximumPC directly or log in using Facebook

Forgot your username or password?
Click here for help.

Login with Facebook
Log in using Facebook to share comments and articles easily with your Facebook feed.