I Jedi

August 24, 2011 at 10:51am

I just sincerely doubt that 48 GB of RAM will become the standard norm. on a desktop PC for the average user in 10 years from now. While I don't refute that one day it will happen, it isn't likely to happen within the next decade. There are several obstacles, which need to be overcome first in order to make the transition to 48 GB a reality for the average consumer.

First, motherboards must be designed to handle a capacity of 48 GB of RAM. High-end servers are designed to do this, but the key words are high-end and servers.When we talk about the consumer level-based motherboards, we're talking around high end gaming mobo supporting around 24 GB of RAM at a high end. These motherboards often times range from $400 to around $800 in some cases that I have seen, for the very latest, high-end gaming motherboards. Now, will these prices come down, as the technology is more refined? OF COURSE! To say otherwise totally goes against everything that has happened to the PC over the last quarter of a century. The Price ALWAYS comes down. Rather the price will come down enough for 48 GB motherboards in the next 10 years for the average consumer, to make it price effective, I do not know.

Second, the price per RAM stick would sincerely need to fall far from where they are, even by today's standards in terms of cost per unit, which is pretty cheap, I might add!. As the article describes, it would cost nearly $250 - $400 to have 48 GB of RAM by today's standards. That is not ideal for the average user to spend such money on; therefore, the market will continue to support less than that because the price point has not been reduced far enough. With the way the RAM market acts, it is unlikely, for the foreseeable future. Even if we assume that RAM sticks cost, say, 30 dollars for eight gigabytes worth of RAM in the year 2021, it would still cost the average consumer $150 dollars, which is getting a bit more reasonable from $250-$400. That is assuming, of course, that RAM DOES drop off to $30 dollars for eight gigabytes worth.

Third, as some of you have pointed out, programmers can design their software to take advantage of the additional 48 GB of RAM; however, not every program needs 48 GB worth. If the argument is for gaming, I can see massive amounts of memory being dedicated to creating bigger virtual worlds, supporting more A.I., and increasing load times. I MUST distress that this is an exception, and will probably not play out to be the norm. for a long time with other software, such as Microsoft Word, e-mail, iTunes, etc, etc, etc. Now, if every consumer in 10 years from now is video editing, Folding At Home, and running Crysis 5 at maximum capacity, I can see a push by the industry. As it stands, most consumers only use their computer for web, email, Skype, Word, etc. We here are the exception to this rule because we actually know what our rigs are capable of doing, and see most reasoning to put our PC's through their paces.

Again, I DONT disagree that ONE DAY we will have motherboards supporting 48 GB as a norm., but I don't believe it is going to happen within the next decade. There have been plenty of new advancements in technology, which have been betamaxed, but hailed nonetheless as breakthroughs for the PC; Only to be shattered by a reaction from the market's willingness to adopt it.

jnwoll

August 24, 2011 at 9:13am

According to Moore's Law, with some Marketing and Industry Expectations, 48Gb of memory might be the low end and closer to 64-102Gb Ram. 

However, given that memory is a little behind the curve of doubling every two years, 48Gb is pretty realistic for the average user.  Gaming enthusiasts will easily be 64Gb or more. 

With that in mind, I think most of our "computers" 10 years from now will be a small little box with 95% of all components being solid state.