Steve Ballmer Considers Windows 8 to be Microsoft’s Riskiest Product Bet

The expression “kids say the darndest things” gets just about anyone under the age of 10 off the hook for bizarre remarks, but Microsoft PR is likely looking for someway to spin Steve Ballmer’s latest comments into this category as well following a recent interview at the Gartner Symposium. During the one-on-one with ZDnet’s Larry Dignan, Ballmer claimed that “the next version of Windows” was Microsoft’s “riskiest bet”. Given that such a large percentage of Microsoft’s revenue comes from Windows, this probably wasn’t the best thing to admit in a public forum, but his honesty certainly does give us lots to write about!
This begs the question, why is Steve so worried about Windows 8? ZDnet’s Mary Jo Foley speculated that it could be because Microsoft’s next operating system is rumored to be a radical departure from Windows 7, but since nothing has been officially confirmed by the company, we still have very little to go on. Leaked feature slides claim Windows 8 is going to be faster booting, have more advanced biometric security support, and maybe even an app store. Sure these are interesting features to a select few, but not exactly what most people would consider “risky”.
The more likely explanation is simply the natural fear built into Microsoft after the launch of Windows Vista. In many ways Vista failed because they tried to change core aspects of the operating system too quickly, and the compatibility problems caused a backlash that they are only now starting to recover from.
So should they make radical changes and risk another Vista? Or should they simply continue tweaking the UI and risk not making a compelling case to upgrade in two years time?
Comments
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Lhot
October 26, 2010 at 12:52am
good post bro...I've been posting that for 3 years now on this forum....seems every OTHER MS OS is a failure. Nice to see someone else is actually paying attention ;)
Next up yet another Caboose flame tard post :/
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dffeitlstp
October 25, 2010 at 10:09am
Hmmm...
Windows 3.0 unfinished product
Windows 3.1 finished productWindows 95 unfinished product
Windows 95b finished productWindows 98 unfinished product
Windows 98se finished product
Windows Me (let's kindly block from memory)Windows 2000 unfinished product
Windows XP finished productWindows Vista unfinished product
Windows 7 finished productThe gist is that Microsoft has been doing this for two decades and we are on to them. Of course Windows 8 is a risky product because every new generation of MS product is unfinished and requires a re-release to corrent the havoc.
If MS is really serious about getting Windows 8 right, they will open their beta test for a year like they did with Windows 7 and get the feedback they need to have a product that works for everyone. Also, I don't know any enterprise that is thrilled with a three year O/S release cycle. Most businesses want to get 5-6 years out of a platform change and Microsoft got themselves in the XP dilemna by trying to force something by taking the keys to the car away. That is not going to work in this economy.
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domo
October 25, 2010 at 7:06am
Ballmer is awesome. All you Windows fanboys are just uneducated poor people. Sure you won't shell out for a Mac, because you can't. You're all welfare babies that can't dish out the cash for the best computers and devices known to man. I own an Ipod, Iphone, Imac, and a Macbook pro! Nothing can touch Apple! Sorry that you are on foodstamps, but I'm not sorry I am better than you.
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Caboose
October 25, 2010 at 8:04am
Another Apple troll. Awesome!
You know, one of the biggest differences between a Mac user and a Windows user, is that Mac users seem to have an inferiority complex, and have to show off their shiny iDevices to try and make themselves feel better for spending 2-3 times as much on a device as the rest of us. And the fact that the tech is 2 to 3 years older than what the rest of us are using (save for the iPod).
Ya, still rocking that Core2Duo I see. While in my new laptop I'm rocking a Core i5, or even a quad-core Core i7. Ya! You're REAL awesome!
The fact that I can build my own PC which will be the same power as your precious Mac, and I'll still have enough money left over to, you know, actually HAVE money left over does not make myself, or any other PC user sad. Just means that we are actually intellegent!
If Macs were so awesome, then why do they have a paltry 5% market share? There are more Windows 7 based machines in the world than all of Macs combined!
Go troll somewhere else!
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domo
October 25, 2010 at 10:17am
Shine my shoes while I surf the web on my superior Macbook, peasant.
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Lhot
October 25, 2010 at 2:38am
....had the capacity to use such a clever and NEW (for him at least) marketing ploy as this. By his statement he is challenging you to (ofc) buy his next product to prove him wrong....as he has already taught us that he is not to be believed. LOL This is quite subtle for Steve. I won't fall for it though.
IF you (the people) store anything online or in the CLOUD, you are just going to make every hackers wet dream come true...wise up people...they can ONLY sell you what you are willing to buy.
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Sparx10
October 24, 2010 at 10:36pm
I have a feeling he thinks its risky because it will only be sold in 64-bit and 128-bit versions (so I've heard). If that is correct, then that is a very risky thing indeed.
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burgesjl
October 24, 2010 at 5:29pm
First, one has to hope that MS will not force everyone to try and use a userid that will require access to the 'Cloud'. This seems to be the way they want to go, and if so, they need to be advised that this is not a valid approach in many businesses such as Government and Defense that require this information is not allowed outside the firewall.
Second, we have to hope they don't think the right way to do this is by having an App Store, and forcing all publishers to use it. Whilst on the one hand it's annoying to have all publishers using different installer software and especially updater software, which you have to search hard for to find in the Registry to stop it auto-updating just when you don't want it to, the best way to address this is create some standards, rather than forcing people to go via MS sites where they can track your behavior.
Finally, and the big kicker, is that MS is a convicted monopolist. This means they have to be VERY careful about not setting off another round of Government investigation to their business practices, and be found guilty again. First, the fiscal penalties could be very severe: billions of dollars. Second, there are other remedies which could be employed, most specifically, that they would be broken up into many pieces. If that happens, MS is dead and the individual components could be in real trouble. Forcing people through their Cloud infrastructure would be just such a violation, even if they tried to use the "Apple is doing it" defense. I for one would be very keen to complain to the Government should they make such a system come to pass, for either the basic user authentication, or forced to use their App Store.
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legacy2013
October 24, 2010 at 3:22pm
Most of the people commenting here don't seem to understand the rate at which technology is changing. I mean XP lasted wayyy to long, but it had to because Vista got such a bad reputation and did not do a good job managing memory and applications. Vista's core architecture was changed from what XP and all other Window OSes had had previously. 7 improved on that and made an amazing operating system that everyone loves. Backwards compatability is not possible on everything even though people b@!$% and moan about it all the time. Having to code an operating system so that technology from today and technology from 10 years ago work together is an extremely strentous process that takes way too long and doesnt always work. I mean, thats like asking for your smart phone now to be compatible with some random app you had on your flip phone ten years ago, its just not possible with the shift in technology.
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Caboose
October 24, 2010 at 11:13am
I love all the comments from people bitching and complaining about "having to upgrade". No one is forcing you to upgrade. If you're happy with Windows 7, then there's no real need to upgrade to the next OS.
It's not a life or death type of situation.
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tonymus
October 24, 2010 at 10:19am
It's not mentioned in this article, but I remember reading that a major feature in Windows 8 is supposed to be that all applications run in their own virtualized OS. This "sandbox" approah is supposed to almost eliminate the effects of computer virii and other malware. The flip side is that it might break a lot of legacy applications. Plus, it'll be the first implementation of the feature, and I believe that Balmer smells Vista all over again.
Windows 8 should take its sweet time to come to market - Windows 7 is a great operating system, and all of the advanced features planned should be programmed, tested, tweaked for performance and security, and retested until "Version 2.0" of Windows 8 is at least at fast and stable as Windows 7.
Microsoft is really in a race with Apple now, and they can't afford another misstep as they had in Vista.
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tedster98
October 24, 2010 at 9:19am
Windows 7 is great. It took me a LONG tome to swtich from XP. But, I still don't have full functionality of many peripherals - especially my scanner and camera. I'm not going to upgrade again if I constantly have to junk all my hardware because manufactuers won't or can't update drivers. It's a real waste of money. Provide BACKWARDS driver support.
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BobbyPhoenix
October 24, 2010 at 1:43pm
Each new release should start with being compatible with everything the previous OS can use, and build on that to introduce new features, it shouldn't be the other way around. You don't make a new OS that can do this, and do that, but it won't work with my current printer. WTF?????
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LatiosXT
October 25, 2010 at 7:29am
I would actually prefer Windows to not try to be backwards compatible with everything. While backwards compatiblity is great and all, it also leaves room for so many bugs or other issues. Much of Vista's backwards compatibility issues (which can easily carry over to Windows 7) is that too many programs that everyone used on XP expected admin rights. Vista doesn't grant programs admin rights even if you're running an admin account. Programs would "break" because of that.
Not only that, backwards compatibility is such a pain in the ass to make sure both the old and the new work. I work on a system at my job that must be backwards compatible with something invented in the 80's. Holy crap.
Actually let me make sure I'm understood. I'd like backwards compatibility, but if you're still rocking hardware from the turn of the millenium, it's time to upgrade (or you could just stick with running the old OS, that's what businesses do :D)
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Victek
October 24, 2010 at 9:08am
It's hard to have an opinion about Windows 8 since we know virtually nothing about it. Hopefully it will go through a public beta phase as did Windows 7, so we can get a clear idea long before we have the option to buy it. Obviously it will need to bring something compelling to the table and it will take a while to figure what's actually needed.
It makes me sad that to this day people whine about Windows Vista being a "mistake" when it was in fact necessary. People claim they want innovation and security, but in the end most want perfect backward compatibilty. How many people went nuts because their ten year old scanner or printer wasn't support in Vista and blamed Microsoft instead of the manufacturer? The only real mistake Microsoft made with Vista was understating the memory requirements. The poor performance of the first generation of Vista machines with only 1gb of ram had a lot to do destroying Vista's image. 32 bit Vista runs just fine with 3gb-4gb of ram. One reason Windows 7 is popular is it's not being sold on underpowered hardware.
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joepullin
October 24, 2010 at 7:17am
Going all the way back to some nerdy college kid plunking down a bit of his own money for an OS that only the brainiest of brainiacs could use. Then hoping that he could sell that to a major American corporation and at least get his money back.
Think of the millions of dollars spent on developing Windows 1, 2, and 3 before 3.1 was a hit. Why plunk down all that time, resource, and money in 1994 and 1995 into making a new OS when 3.x was just fine? What if Win 95 had bombed?
From office software to keyboards and mice, video games and video game machines. Every effort is a risk. Hopefully the reward for taking each risk pays off. I think Steve-O was just engaging in some hyperbole to get some attention. I mean, Windows 2 was the riskiest bet since Windows 1.
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band geek
October 24, 2010 at 7:16am
Maybe Windows 8 is where the registry will finally cease to exist. That would be a pretty risky bet on Microsoft's part.
That said, I love Windows 7, even though it still has the registry.
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M1K3Z0R
October 23, 2010 at 10:35pm
If windows 8 turns out to be a dud, it's probably safe to say Win7 will last for a long while, just like XP did.
Considering Microsoft has had a rough time with every other consumer windows version since 98 (ME, Vista), I am not expecting windows 8 to be all that epic. Besides, Windows 7 doesn't leave alot of space for improvement in critical areas, and considering the rate of adoption, don't expect it to go away quickly
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Keith E. Whisman
October 23, 2010 at 9:55pm
At least MS doesn't usually sell Service Packs as whole new OS's like Apple does, so I hope any changes are going to be major and not just a Service Pack being sold as a whole new OS like Snow Leopard.
As long as the major changes are useful and awesome and bring new exciting and magical functionality to the OS will it be worth it. I can't see purchasing a whole new OS because of enhanced deaktop search functionality and an extra Toolbar option for open windows.
Now if there is an app store and MS blocks all other avenues of installing software but through their app store then there will be a reason to scream and hence the reason why I don't like the thinking behind Cloud OS's and Web based apps with no option to actually install the software onto the home computer.
The main reason why I'm against it is because not everyone has access to high speed internet and lets say you want to do work on your laptop but your in an area without any WiFi and your 3G isn't working either. Your screwed. Besides using anything big on 3G speeds really suck anyway for anything beyond browsing the web. Videos just take too long and are extremely choppy at 3G speeds.
So I hope Windows 8 isn't the cloud OS that everyone has been dreaming about except me for a while now. I have heard that Windows 8 will only be available in 64bit so that means Intel needs to quit selling 32bit only processors like the Celleron and Pentium processors. Atom processors are going to need 64bit support built in as well. Intel needs to get with the game and quit dragging their feet.
Also, a version of Windows that is built from the ground up for making tablet use awesome would be nice. I know MS has the resources to do something like that to blow Google Android and Iphone OS out of the water.
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Mighty BOB!
October 23, 2010 at 11:02pm
Yeah the thought had crossed my mind that maybe it's risky because it's some kind of cloud OS or partial cloud OS. No fracking thanks please.
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Keith E. Whisman
October 23, 2010 at 10:01pm
I would agree with you but I know that MS has to keep up and remain competitive with other OS's like Mac and Linux. Linux has finally become user friendly as much as Windows is and there for is a very capable and real threat to Mac and MS so they both have to have a release schedule that can keep people using Windows. So MS really has no other choice then to keep producing OS's every couple of years.
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Gezzer
October 23, 2010 at 5:52pm
Think about it, even though XP was very long in the tooth when Vista came out many waited to upgrade. For a lot it was till Windows7 came out.
I've been using windows like many others since the 3.1 days. Each new version was the promise that we'd finally have the windows Microsoft was promising us. Some were close like 98SE or 2000, others missed it completly, WindowsME anyone?
XP was the first real light at the end of the tunnel, the only reason I jumped to Vista was the threat I wouldn't be able to play bleeding edge games anymore. I dual booted Vista and XP, and only used Vista when it was a DX10 game I wanted to play. I now have Win7 only on all my systems and love it.
So why do I need to upgrade? How many people will need or want to upgrade? Windows 8 could end up being the product nobody needs or wants no matter how great or revolutionary it is. So considering how much MS has invested in the Windows brand, yeah I'd say Windows 8 is a risky bet.
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Neufeldt2002
October 23, 2010 at 5:15pm
There are some features in the pipe that to me would make upgrading to Windows 8 worth the money. One button reinstall is one of those features, but I want to see the finished product before I decide whether I am going to spend money on it.
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Mighty BOB!
October 23, 2010 at 4:35pm
I have no intention of plonking down another $100-$300 for a new OS until 2013 at the earliest, and even then I think I will probably be skeptical about it. I'm not expecting Win7 to have some unnaturally long product cycle like XP did, but I don't plan on using it for only two years. Heck I've only had it for 9 months, and it has only been available at retail for 1 year and 1 day.
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igoka
October 23, 2010 at 3:52pm
I think it is " riskiest bet " . I'm happy with Windows 7 . Win 7 is pretty darn good . What else can they give us new that we would switch to new OS ? DirectX 12 ? Mind reading ability ? They have created good OS now they have to prove that new OS even better. In this situaton I'm gonna be very careful switching to new OS probably gonna wait and see .
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Zachary K.
October 23, 2010 at 3:59pm
you say that now, but i am sure they thought the same things about windows XP, 1GHz processors, and cable internet. now we have windows 7, 3 GHz multicore processors, and fiber.
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