Gates Says Geeks Have Been Spoiled by Moore's Law
Gates Says Geeks Have Been Spoiled by Moore's Law
Posted 08/11/2010 at 7:15am
| by Paul Lilly
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Despite arguments over the technicalities of Moore's Law, the bottom line is we've seen fairly consistent performance increases throughout the years in the microprocessor industry. The problem with this, says Bill Gates, is that the same expectations can't be applied to other tech sectors.
"We've all been spoiled and deeply confused by the IT model," Gates said in response to a question from the audience during last week's Techonomy conference. "Exponential improvement -- that is rare."
That isn't to say that certain tech segments never see that kind of growth, and according to Gates, you can "see it in hard disk storage, fiber capacity, gene-sequencing rates, biological databases, [and] improvements in modeling software," to name a few. But in other areas, like battery development, exponential growth just isn't a reality.
"They [batteries] haven't improved hardly at all," Gates said. "There are deep physical limits. I am funding five battery start-ups and there are probably 50 out there. [But] that is a very tough problem. It may not be solvable in any sort of economic way."
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JohnP
August 11, 2010 at 12:39pm
Expecting expotential breakthrough in cars is unrealistic. Being able to work from home is not. I did that for 4 years and the company (HP spinoff) did not even have an office within 150 miles from me. Who needed an efficent car for that?
Buying online prevents multitude of cars packing the roads to go shopping for books, electronics, etc but not for groceries.
Like all technological advances, each adds benefits and produces bad disadvantages.
A great example is spacecraft. Hypersonic launch vehicles will help, but boosting objects into orbit will never be cheap (err never say never). The solution, use technology to shrink the objects going into orbit. One food and fuel run the the space station could be used to launch multiple remotely operated vehicles to Mars. Which does more to add to fundamental science?
Another is manufacturing. Right now, ore is shipped to China, the steel to sub assembly workers in many different countries, and the assembly back in China, with the end user anywhere in the world. Why? Right now, manufacturing requires many unskilled laborers for most products. Automate the process with technology and all of that wasted flow disappears.
Big tanks, huge aircraft carriers, heavy ordinance, all are quickly becoming obsolete or worse, dangerous to the people inside. Unmanned drones are outdistancing manned aircraft by large margins now, and the drones will just shrink in size. Smart weapons are now the future, not a larger crusie missle.
Forget the big stuff, think small. Think doing more at home. Think global communications.
Bill has it wrong. Don't worry about the battery, worry about the power needed to run what the battery is used for.
Tenhawk
August 11, 2010 at 9:20am
The effects of Moores Law have, in combination with corporate greed and personal jealousy, turned our society into a disposable world.
Once upon a time we used to own things we could pass down to our children, things that they would actually USE. Today? Can anyone really imagine their grandchildren using an iPhone? Hell, have a five year old today and give him an iPhone 4 when he's *9*, he's going to give you SUCH a dirty look.
Our entire world is the same today, even with things that really shouldn't be, and that creates an unrealistic expectation that sucks money pointlessly from our pockets AND causes real harm to the world we live in.
Unfortunately Moores Law is more than just a tech law, it's become a philosophy of life where we have to improve the things we own every six months... which isn't only unsustainable, it's stupid.
HaitianSensation
August 12, 2010 at 9:23pm
I agree with you about how our society is being made into a disposible one, however, I would have to admit that while yes, it is a bad thing, the exponential rise in technology has benefited other areas of society like medicine and manufacturing. So like most things in life, there is a positive and negative side to everything.
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