Future Tense: Are TV and Movie Studios Bound for Extinction?
Future Tense: Are TV and Movie Studios Bound for Extinction?
Posted 05/12/2011 at 12:35pm
| by David Gerrold
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Sixty-five million years ago, an object almost the size of Manhattan struck the Earth, punching a massive hole in the planet’s crust, close to the equator, right where the Yucatan is today. The shock waves were so massive, they completely circled the globe, coming together again on the opposite side somewhere in India, cracking the mantle there as well, and triggering centuries of gigantic volcanic eruptions from a caldera the size of Australia.
The resulting volcanic winter shut off most of the sunlight reaching the planet’s surface, starving almost every plant of sustenance. Most of the animals that fed on those plants died and most of the animals that fed on those animals died. The plankton in the oceans died, the fish that fed on the plankton died, the fish that fed on those fish died.
It was the fifth great extinction and it was the end of the age of dinosaurs. The great beasts of wonder and imagination could not survive the volcanic winters, could not survive the changes in the atmosphere, could not find enough to eat, could not adapt to the harsh new reality.
Meanwhile, those pathetic little egg-suckers, those tiny big-eyed nocturnal proto-mammalians found that they could still eke out survival in the newly darkened world and as the atmosphere slowly cleared, as the plants began to recolonize the scorched Earth, these voracious little mammals quickly colonized the daytime hours as well and eventually filled all of the empty ecological niches that the death of the dinosaurs had left behind.
Why is this important?
Well, aside from the fact that it’s a great metaphor, it’s also a life-lesson that should not be ignored.
Today, we have a different breed of dinosaurs on the planet. Studius Gigantosaurus. Paramount, Universal, Fox, Sony, Columbia, Disney, and MGM. And Networkus Idocius. CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX, etc. These dinosaurs eat enormous amounts of green stuff, they produce incredible amounts of dung, and they dominate the landscape.
Unfortunately, for these dinosaurs, a massive object has struck the planet and they are walking around not recognizing yet just how much their ecology has changed. This asteroid is the internet and it’s a lot larger than Manhattan. This catastrophic force hasn’t just created an alternate form of distribution, it has created a whole new environment where wondrous new forms of content are inevitable.
YouTube is the obvious example. The short video is a pernicious little egg-sucker, sucking eyeballs away from prime-time as fast as any pathetic meltdown of a sitcom star.
The short video can be funny, tragic, newsworthy, or just a piece of astonishing outrageousness. “I can’t believe I just saw that.” A seven minute Rube-Goldberg style music video. A 30-second clip of a ninja cat stalking the camera. A traffic camera revealing a terrifying accident happening around a motorcyclist who misses death by inches. A mashup of music and clips from Star Trek. A baby laughing at ripped paper. A shot-by-shot demonstration how Disney reuses animation from one film to the next. Demo films of all kinds. Instructional films. Political statements. Personal video blogs. People reacting to a video of two girls and one cup. And let’s not forget the classic Numa-Numa Guy and Chris Crocker’s plaintive cry of “Leave Britney Alone!”
All of this is possible because of the ubiquity of video cameras. You don’t need a high-end HDTV camcorder. Your DSLR can do HD. Your point-and-shoot can do HD. You can pick up a credit card-sized Flip HD-recorder for less than two benjamins. Ohell, most smartphones even capture HD video now. There is no escape. If you are going to embarrass yourself in public, someone will certainly have a lens pointed in your direction.
Software has also kept up. You don’t need Sony Vegas or Adobe Premiere Pro. A single benjamin will get you Pinnacle Studio. And you don’t even have to spend that much. Microsoft’s Movie Maker is a freebie that you can download for Windows 7.
What all of this has made possible is an explosion of filmmaking by amateurs, hobbyists, and aspiring actors, directors, animators, their friends and anyone else they can con into joining the crew. Some of the films have been beautiful examples of noir, others have been knock-down, rolling-on-the-floor, pee-in-your-pants hysterical. Some have been dramatic, others have been surreal. A few have been so professional, they have resulted in studio attention. (And yes, an even greater number have been not-so wonderful. Look up Sturgeon’s Law.)
One specific niche in this new ecology is the fan film. Except to call them fan films is a terrible injustice. The ones I’ve seen have been impressive. One of the best is Troops, a mashup of Star Wars and Cops. I’ve also seen wonderful recreations of Batman (both The Dark Knight and the sixties TV series.) My personal favorite is Star Trek Phase II, formerly known as Star Trek New Voyages. The production values on this recreation of the classic Kirk-Spock-McCoy series not only rival, but often surpass the original.
Okay, I’m not unbiased, but neither am I uninformed. In the interests of disclosure, I have to state that I was on the set for the shooting of the original Star Trek series, and I’ve directed three hours of Star Trek Phase II, a near feature-length two-parter called Blood And Fire and most recently, a one-hour episode called Origins: The Protracted Man.
What startled and impressed me on the first day of shooting on Origins was the cameras we were using—or not using.
On Blood And Fire, which we shot in 2007, we used three Panasonic HBX-200 cameras. My Sony Z1U was redundant. On Origins, we shot the first two days with a Canon EOS 7D. Yes! A high-end DSLR. It was a little spooky to look at the tripod and not see a heavy piece of equipment, but the output was staggeringly beautiful. Unfortunately, we had to switch back to a Panasonic HPX-170, not because of any problem with the lustworthy little Canon, but because we developed a problem syncing the sound with all the other legacy equipment that had to be plugged in.
The point here is that professional-grade video is well on its way to total market penetration. And what that means is that the line between amateur and professional video is now being straddled by a new breed of filmmaker—a new ecological niche. Therapsida invidius.
I’m not the only person who knows this. Most of the professional writers, directors, and actors I know are well aware that there’s a whole new entertainment environment opening up, and they’re eager to get into it. The 2007 contract negotiations of all three major entertainment guilds included rules and guidelines for internet productions.
I don’t expect the big studio dinosaurs to die. The last time an asteroid smacked their world, it was television. They staggered around and bellowed and grunted for a few years until they discovered they could adapt by becoming content-providers for television as well as movies.
The big studios have financial resources and distribution abilities beyond the reach of any independent filmmaker. And there will always be a market for big budget blockbuster events and even for medium and low-budget films as well. The big broadcast and cable networks will also survive.
But the entertainment world is changing faster than the dinosaurs can comprehend, let alone keep up. While Studius Gigantosaurus is still staggering around and grunting and dropping lawsuits here and there, something wonderful is happening beneath its feet. Internet filmmakers are the nocturnal mice in this environment. They can go through a dozen generations of adaptation while the dinosaurs are still struggling to lay a single egg at the box-office. The rate of evolution for the little guys is a thousand times faster.
The dinosaurs will likely stagger on, but the real future lies with the nocturnal mice who are rapidly creating a new entertainment ecology. There are niches that they are going to grow into very quickly. They’re going to challenge the dinosaurs.
And that’s part of why I mentioned Star Trek: Phase II. It’s more than just a fan production. It’s a demonstration that episodic drama on the internet is inevitable. And when the dust from that settles, the future of entertainment will be changed forever.
What do you think?
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noori
June 09, 2011 at 5:02am
But I think it makes no sense to make any bond in such movies. Earlier the tv shows adn movies are suppose to do the same action just like these days.
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vectorizer
May 15, 2011 at 10:34am
I think the author is confusing the death of big media with the explosion of creativity we already see and continue to see in video production, just as we have seen explosions in (text) publication and music. The technology enabling a large audience and not-cheap-looking content allows much more material to be produced by people who in the past could not find an audience, but that doesn't mean those people will be successful in the sense of making millions of dollars. To do that still requires the promotion and distribution channels that big media control. So while we will all benefit from much more and higher quality creative output from amateurs, there is no way big media is going the way of the dinosaur. As happened to other media like paper and music publication, TV and studios will become less influential, but the ability for TV and studios to generate extreme income based on continued scarcity of top talent and distribution channels will ensure they will not die.
MrSatyre
May 13, 2011 at 1:51pm
...what's up with The War Against th Chtorr? Is that extinct, too? Maybe you should serialized it online---posting what you have so far---allowing your readers to edit it for you. That could prove interesting, not to mention original, and certainly no more time-consuming than it already has been.
punditguy
May 13, 2011 at 5:28am
I'm sure it's just a coincidence that most of the examples listed here -- hell, maybe all the examples listed here -- are unauthorized derivative works from studio IPs. That's ironic, and not in the Morissette sense of the word.
Silver925
May 13, 2011 at 8:00am
Turn about is fare play. The studios have been turning to every source imaginable for 'inspiration' to produce (many times horrible) scripts for... well... almost ever. For every idea that's original, 20 are taken from other sources. And even when the idea is somewhat original, it's usually hammered in to some formula that sucks the life out of it. And if is original and doesn't conform to a formula, it becomes a formula and 'me too' copycats are created to cash in.
If the little guy wants to take something back from the studios, all the power to them. I'd rather see some small independent so this then a bloated studio.
MarioJP
May 13, 2011 at 1:01am
Finally that someone brings this up. I totally agree with the article about the future of watching movies, and shows will be like. Despite what most say, or the naysayers says about "production value" newsflash. Seems like there is more creativity in content than any production value filmed ever made in its history combined. The point that this article is stating is the fact that you have control of how you want to watch your shows, and movies. Why do you think Comcast is offering Xfinity all of a sudden?? all thanks to netflix.
Television as we once knew is becoming obsolete. I don't think movie studios are going out of business. They just need to focus on new strategies. For many many years in the past, we were under their control telling us what to watch and when to watch it. Now the tables have turned and they are upset about it lol. Well to bad times has changed. And about the fan movie making. Well this just shows that the internet has given you the tools and control about the content that person can create, whether be good or bad.
HoopSpread
May 12, 2011 at 10:03pm
Although I have a dinasour rig. The problem is the fact of creation standards in MPEG required to put things onto DVD is required to have a liscence. I would like not to find that ported MPEG copies created through the only handful of software apps that make them,still have the legal rights to sue for every single copy not bringing a royalty ring to the patent holders fingers.
The youtube thing yeah,it ends where it begins. It does not go beyond that. Same thing I've had about computing for several years. First the format type ,then the rendering application format type,then the frame sizes. Most of them created by the proprietary contentment of the same personalities listed in your dinasour age.
Dont get me wrong. This is not a question of how,what,and where - this hand full rests on two or three application shoulders. It is most likely a question of when,and then who is going to make the statement of fairness,and do so in clarity of the same.
I'll add that sure,there is now the great copacity of broadcasting in Hi definition. This is not a fact of the 'd'in DTV. Yet the standards have been addressed that way. And in doing so every manufacturer has swallowed the device pill from the same specifications. Of course we at the computer recognize the mult-faceted aspect ratio as something that is less than rigid. Still we shake our wallets and dismay at the voltage charge,and the bandwidth on the same 'd' capacity.
I'd just like to see who I'm speaking to. Send or sell some original art. Then leave with plenty left to speak of.
JohnP
May 13, 2011 at 9:45am
Wow. This post has me speechless. Is it computer generated? Is it to bang on keywords for search (no advertising tho)? A foreign speaker who tried translating it? Some of it makes sense, other parts are just strung together words. What a strange read.
merrygoround
May 12, 2011 at 9:34pm
I would love to agree and say that fan films are catching up to the level of professionalism that studios create, but it's not even close. Sure, I completely agree that studios are putting out "incredible amounts of dung". I'd rather studios give us tons of crap with the ocassional gem than the neverending gemless crap the internet spews out. If you look at many of the fan films and web series, most of them are terrible. Many of them never even get finished. When there isn't money fueling a film, and when your team consists of under 10 people, you will never catch up to the studios. Assassin's Creed Lineage is backed by Ubisoft. Dragon Age has a web series out (or coming out soon) that is backed by Bioware. These are just variations of viral ad campaigns to maintain a high level of interest in their franchises. Is Troops humorous? A bit. But, the production value is not impressive. Is the production value in The Hunt for Gollum good or is it just acceptable? Just because something is fan made and isn't terrible doesn't mean it's good or ever will be. If your kid comes home proud of a drawing he did in art class, you're probably going to think the drawing is better than it really is. So, yes, I think you're being a little biased. And, comparing the effects of what someone makes today to a show that is 40 years old is ridiculous. Completely different tools are used. When I can sit through an entire 10 minute fan film or episode, and look forward to watching the next one, then I'll say DIY video makers are catching up.
Holly Golightly
May 12, 2011 at 9:26pm
Wow, FINALLY... Someone has decided to tell the truth! To be honest with you, I feel that watching TV will be a thing of the past. It seems rather primative to rush at a specific hour just to watch the program you want to. Sometimes your favorite show comes at a bad time which can cut into your social life. I see cable tv as equal to flip phones, very useful at one time, but highly undesirable now. They are too old school, and replaced by something more cool. Something more... Smart. Connecting to the internet is the way to the future. Watch what you want to watch at your time... Not the Studius Gigantosaurus way! I watch my favorite videos ad-free with the help of a friendy 'ol AdBlocker. Watching videos have never felt this good.
This is an awesome article, but you forgot one important dinosaur... Movious Theatorus! I see movie theaters at too old school even for last decade. Going to the theater is like going to a boring play at Broadway. (Which I have been in!) Shakespeare was great in the back in the 1500s, but 5 centuries later, people still want to hang on to those old days of monarchy rule! The future is all about working around your schedule, and not the schedule of the old queen. So with that said, movie theaters have show times, which require very expensive tickets, and you have to eat something, which can easily cost you $20... Movious Theatorus astroid is high prices. I do not know why they are pricing themselves out of the market, but in my opinion, it is just not worth it. You have to wait in a long line, there always somebody talking, or laughing a little too loud, and the bathrooms are never clean. I see the future as people converting their livingrooms into home theaters. With screens as large as 92"! These are good times we are facing. Free video, from the internet, ad-free episodes, and professional-grade movies... All available for you to watch at home at the time YOU feel is best!
I am definitely excited about it, and I think that we are headed in the right path to a much smarter way of life. No more waiting for show times, no more commercials, no more traveling long distances just to pay a lot of money for something that may, or may not be good. This is great news people, and we should be darn proud that we are here to witness it all. Just imagine it.
JohnP
May 13, 2011 at 9:49am
Agreed. I have long ago given up going to the movie theater. I can bear most things about it, but the unruly crowds drive me to distraction. Give me a 40 inch TV any day. The best seat in the house is IN THE HOUSE.
Holly Golightly
May 13, 2011 at 11:48am
You know, in my opinion, home theater surround sound systems are already better in sound quality than in the theater. Now, if we can have TVs that go beyond 3D 1080p, then we might just see the theaters go. But we need screens that can fill up a whole wall... But I am not sure when it will come. For now, our best bet is projectors. By the way, you made the best statement of the day: "The best seat in the house is IN THE HOUSE."
JohnP
May 12, 2011 at 4:40pm
Hmm, not sure. I think it is more the DISTRIBUTION channels have changed more than the PRODUCTION values. Yes, I could create and you tube a movie, but it would not have any money backers, decent actors, good lighting and sound, a place to film, editors who know how to edit, or a decent way to advertise and promote the film.
How much does that count? A LOT. If you think movies are bad now, just watch some amateur porn to see some really ugly women, really bad lighting, really bad sound, and no editing to speak of.
Now I think the best example of what you are talking about is live plays. I have seen some absolutely terrific plays by just the high school here in town, some of them rivaling anything Broadway has put on. I lit a play in college that I saw on Braodway a few years ago and even wth star talent, the college play had it all over the NYC version. That I can buy into.
I think it will not be until CGI can take over the money sinks of sets, location, and actors, that amateur video will be worth a damn.
TommM
May 12, 2011 at 2:39pm
That had to be the most metaphor rich article I've ever read. ;-)
And I agree. Especially with the lack of quality movies (have you seen this summer's lineup? Nothing but bad remakes and cheezy teen love stories). Then you have the insanity of cable TV. 800 channels broadcasting the largest amount of crap ever seen in the history of visual media complete with 15 minutes of commercials for every 30 minutes of show.
The Internet won't bring these guys completely down, but it will - and already has - made a huge dent in their world.
emmanuelsharris
May 12, 2011 at 2:37pm
I agree that there's a great opportunity for online filmmakers to get ahead of the curve. Some of my favorite films are online productions.
Short films such as Metal Gear Solid: Philanthropy, The Hunt for Gollum, Assassin's Creed: Lineage and the soon-to-be-released Ghost Recon Alpha are all great examples of where the freedom and creativity of this new breed of cinematographers can take us.
On with the future!
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