Dream Machine 2015: 7 Maximum PC Editors Predictions
Dream Machine 2015: 7 Maximum PC Editors Predictions
Posted 07/08/2011 at 5:08pm
| by The Maximum PC Staff
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You know what's always fun? Dream Machine predictions. Not because they ever turn out to be very informative, but because it's always fun to look back and see just how wrong we were about the future.
Why's it fun to be wrong? Because even though sometimes we get a little too optimistic, more often than not our predictions are wrong because the future turns out even more awesome than we expected. We asked everyone around the office to make their predictions for Dream Machine 2015, so that in 4 years we'll have something to have a good laugh about. Check out what we thought, then hit the comments and leave your own predictions for the future.
NATHAN EDWARDS, SENIOR ASSOCIATE EDITOR:
The 2015 Dream Machine?
First, it’ll still be a desktop computer, but it’ll probably be smaller. As laptops and tablets gain prominence in the lives of average users, desktops will become more and more the domain of the power user, but that doesn’t mean they’ll stay as huge as they are. I predict the 2015 Dream Machine will have a micro-ATX or Mini-ITX motherboard, a 24-core processor, and maybe 48GB of RAM. Sure, that’s a lot, but it’s only 3x the RAM of this year’s DM, and twice the RAM of last year’s. The Dream Machine will still have dedicated GPUs, but that doesn’t mean most machines will—GPUs integrated with the processors will be the de facto standard of 2015, and only enthusiasts will bother to have dedicated GPUs—which means the Dream Machine will have ‘em. And the GPUs it does have might not be PCIe at all—optical Light Peak could have superceded it by then. The DM will also have at least 1TB of solid-state storage, though I’m sure it’ll still have mechanical drives for mass storage. Most computers of 2015 will be glorified docks for smartphones and tablets (take the Atrix concept to its logical conclusion), but the Dream Machine, though it’ll surely have a phone dock, won’t rely on the portable processor for most of its juice. Beyond that? 30-inch panel (what? It’s a sweet spot!), mechanical keyboard, laser mouse (we’re classicists), a really great headset, and we’ll be in business.
ALEX CASTLE, ONLINE MANAGING EDITOR:
I think that picking 2015 for a year to make predictions about was an interesting choice—it’s close enough at hand that we can make some pretty educated guesses, but just far enough away that in our current climate of perpetually accelerating technological progress, all those guesses could be totally wrong.
What I think we can say for sure is that (despite contrary predictions) the desktop PC will still exist in more or less its current form in 4 years. It’ll still feature an x86 processor, but with 12 or more physical cores running at more than 5 GHz. You’ll find at least 64GB of RAM (probably more) in the system, and one or more terabyte-class SSDs. If we’re even still bothering with HDDs and that point, we’ll only need one for massive capacity storage. I don’t think Dream Machine 2015 will feature any optical drives.
Finally, I think DM 2015 will still be running Windows 8. Microsoft will have to step up their game, though, or I think it’s unlikely that DM 2020 will be running a Windows OS at all.
GORDON MAH UNG, SENIOR EDITOR:
To really appreciate what Dream Machine 2015 will look like, you have to look backwards four years. In 2007, the “Ultimate PC” ran a 3GHz Core 2 Extreme QX6850 processor overclocked to 3.66GHz. Graphics were courtesy of two XFX 8800 Ultra (remember those?) XXX Editions on an EVGA 680i board, a 750 Watt PSU and yee haw – four 1TB Hitachi drives. In the RAM department we opted for a controversial 2GB of DDR2/10000 to aid overclocking instead of “maxing” it out at 4GB and well, because, Vista was a mess.
So what possible configuration will make today’s Dream Machine seem pathetically antiquated in comparison? I’m going to say that the rig will run one single x86 processor sporting 12 cores. It will be built on a 15nm process and clock in at the 4.5GHz range (overclocked). The CPU or APU or BPU by then will have eaten even more graphics capability but discrete graphics will continue to be king. Switchable graphics, however, will finally work so the 90 percent of the time your PC isn’t pushing heavy duty 3D needs, it’ll be running on the onboard chip’s graphics. Hardware encoding acceleration in the processor will allow native 4K editing and encoding without breaking a sweat. Security features in the chip will also continue to help Embedded DRAM, or eDRAM, will be present in the chip as well but likely won’t play a large role in an enthusiast configuration. The box will likely sport 64GB of DDR4/3333.
As I said, discrete graphics will still be king for anyone who actually cares about gaming and DM2015 will sport no fewer than two GPUs in the PCIe 4.0 slots. I’d guess it’ll have two 2TB SSDs in RAID 0 plugged in to the SATA 12GB/s slots, which, believe it or not, will still be a bottleneck for the SSD’s of 2015. Hard drives will continue handle bulk store with say, a total of three 9TB drives for 27TB of storage. USB 4.0 running Thunderbolt will be integrated into the chipset as well. The PSU, interestingly, will continue to be topped out at 1,500 watts as there’s simply no where to go from there. The panel will support native 4K or 4096x2160 pixels and 120Hz capability for 3D and touch capability. The OS will be the next, next-generation of Windows, but by then, Microsoft will have learned a lesson from Apple and simply increment by tenths for future iterations. Thus, Dream Machine 2015 will run Windows 8.5 codename: T-Rex.
MARKKUS ROVITO, ONLINE EDITOR, MAXIMUM TECH:
Being completely unqualified never stopped anyone from assuming oppressive dictatorships, and it's in that spirit that I pull my predictions for the 2015 Dream Machine from my posterior.
We'll begin with a motherboard accommodating 96GB of RAM, which we will max out, of course. The board includes four Thunderbolt slots, as well as plenty of USB 4.1 and SATA7 ports, as well. These are just for show, however, because as dutiful early adopters, you are already on board with the health-hazardous, but ever-so-convenient 802.11x standard and transfer anything and everything wirelessly.
For storage, we've finally gone all solid-state. Three 3TB SSDs make a respectable 9TB data dump. We wanted to break double-digit terabytes, but what do you think this is, 2016? Dual octa-core processors clocked at 5.5GHz and four graphics cards clocked at 2GHz each ensure that you'll have a top-notch machine for at least a good three months before ridiculously bloated software and Windows X knocks it down a peg.
This machine will certainly win a Kick-Posterior award. In fact, this machine will be so powerful, that President Ron Paul will declare it a threat to national security and put the offices of Maximum PC under constant surveillance. Okay, I admit there's no way Ron Paul will ever be president, but you can take the rest of these predictions to the bank.
KATHERINE STEVENSON, DEPUTY EDITOR:
In 2015 there may very well be large numbers of people who don’t own a desktop PC, or even a notebook, as smartphones are showing all signs of evolving into pocket-size powerhouses capable of meeting many computing needs on their own– in conjunction with the cloud, natch. But I certainly don’t think the PC will be extinct. That’s because content—be it games, video, or data—will itself continue to evolve, getting ever more intensive and requiring ever more computing muscle to manage and manipulate—more than what would be practical in a mainstream device. Just as now, there will be power users who want a machine that’s up to any task.
It’s quite likely, however, that the Dream Machine of 2015 will be smaller than DMs past, while packing way more power. The processor will have a massive number of cores, of course, many of which will be GPUs. Indeed, by then, discrete graphics cards will probably be obsolete. Local storage—because who would entrust the cloud with all their data?!—will be handled by flash memory. And advances in cooling will further shrink the rig’s size. This mighty mite will be paired with a large, high-res display, possibly curved, that’s capable of displaying 3D content sans glasses and 4K video in all its glory.
AMBER BOUMAN, ONLINE FEATURES EDITOR:
Dream Machine 2015 will almost certainly feature a glasses-free 3D display of some sort - and with the average display size creeping ever larger, the display in question will likely be 30+ inches. Maybe 35 or 37 inches, and there will be at least two monitors.I also think that there will be some type of mobile aspect to it - an associated tablet that docks to the PC, or a smartphone dock...perhaps some sort of flexible tablet? Perhaps a projected hologram or 3D image? Either way, the mobile aspect will be impossible to ignore or exclude. I'm also thinking... and this is pure speculation... improved/increased voice controls, better/more cloud adaptation freeing up memory and hard drive space, and heavy home integrations i.e. controlling your front door, home theatre or alarm system with your PC.
JON PHILLIPS, EDITORIAL DIRECTOR:
I wouldn't hazard to posit anything about the specific components we might find in Dream Machine 2015. But I do think that on the CPU side of things, the so-called "power wall" will continue to forced Intel and AMD to mitigate clock speed limitations with multi-core designs. How many cores exactly? I'll reserve speculation! Sure, new process technologies will eventually emerge that allow us to handle thermals and power issues at very fast frequencies, but don't expect any mass-market breakthroughs within the next four years.
All that said, I'm willing to state with utmost certainty that the CPU in DM2015 will be running an X86 architecture. It won't be ARM so that we can all play the desktop version of Angry Birds 4. And we'll probably see some type of iteration of Thunderbolt. And while notebook, tablets and even smartphones will continue to chip away at desktop sales, we'll still see a thriving PC hardware enthusiast community in 2015, and we'll continue to be using desktops for games, video editing, and mundane office crap. Home entertainment box functionality will also be more important than ever before. None of this is a matter of idle speculation. It's on industry road maps.
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drcrazyrich
August 11, 2011 at 4:39am
I ld say one large curved screen with 3D and a touch screen keyboard ,air gloves via blutooth to move files around ,open windows etc .APU ,20 core, some being gpu s, 40-60 GB of onboard ram DDR8 or higher .and ssd storage via pci e slots and OS that is a part of the bios with direct X13 or higher .USB 4.0 , sata 4 ,250 GB SD style of cards instead of disks will be sed to transfer software ,games etc.It ll all be in ITX form factor in a small case that can change it s color,project designs or pictures on its shell like we change screens savers now .AND it all with 400watts or less !!
stevebollinger@...
July 12, 2011 at 6:45pm
Only One editor made a quick mention of touch screens! What's up with that? Everything should be touch screen by then. Drag a page from your computer screen onto your refrig, or kitchen counter or onto any wall in your house as you walk into the room. Your house knows based on the location of your cell phone which you always carry with you. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38
of course we will have all the extra bit, pixels and hz mentioned. But that is soooo 2014!! Think big!
bonus45
July 12, 2011 at 5:14pm
Dream Machine 2015 will be just that - a dream. Large, power-hungry desktops will be seen as "not green" and so marked for elimination. 5 years ago we would have laughed if someone told us incandescent light bulbs would be illegal today. The same thing will hope to our beloved desktops. You'll have a "pad" device and like it damn it !
God, I'm getting pessimistic lately.
TerribleToaster
July 11, 2011 at 6:10am
The world is ending in 2012 (fo sure), so I guess the 2015 DM will be made of ash and shattered dreams.
RUSENSITIVESWEETNESS
July 11, 2011 at 4:58am
I doubt we will be free of optical drives by 2015. People will still want to make backups of Blu-Ray discs they own. Not everyone will be able to download 25Gb games, either.
Bremelo
July 10, 2011 at 2:09pm
I think we'll be seeing some amazing components taking advantage of graphene by then. Maybe not priced competatively, but there should definitely be some first-generation graphene-based processors by then. Hello, 30+Ghz!
Henry Case
July 10, 2011 at 11:14am
My Dream Machine would basically be a home theater component with a wireless keyboard, mouse and any other input devices you would need for games, etc including headphones. It would be totally silent and have phono inputs so you could hook an analog camera or record player directly to it and make high quality copies of your home movies or record collection. It would also have USB and Firewire connections.
It would have a universal disk player, so it would be the only device you would need to watch any movie in any format from any source. It would have high quality analog and HDMI outputs so it could be your primary music source. The analog inputs can bypass the Dream Machine so you would only need one record player and phono amp. The analog outputs would be easily upgraded so if you had the Dream Machiane attached to a real high end audio system, you could still use the Dream Machine as your complete music source. It would have a mirrored internal drive and you would use it with a really large silent ZFS NAS device for storage. The NAS device would have a built in tape drive so you could also do tape backups of your music, photo and movie collection.
You would still need a separate AV reciever or amp in case you wanted to have a separate PS3 or XBOX but you could control everything from either the Dream Machine or your phone.
Deanjo
July 10, 2011 at 10:54am
"The panel will support native 4K or 4096x2160 pixels and 120Hz capability for 3D and touch capability."
I wish but considering the reluctance of panel manufacturers to exceed 1080P resolutions for the last 4-5 years I doubt it.
Wingzero_x
July 10, 2011 at 7:23am
Heck way things are going any desktop PC will be a sign of power users. Games are being developed for the lowest common denominator. After all why spend millions making Crysis, if you can sell more units with Angry Birds? And as developments in tablets, phones and the rest of our everyday technology becomes smart and connected, the desktop PC will be a forgotten dinosaur by 2015.
Gezzer
July 10, 2011 at 12:10am
In 1015 with Intel hitting the 18nm and AMD getting a 20nm part out there will be tons of room on any given die. The release of DX12b will allow progrmmers to take advantage of on die GPUs for physics calculations when a discreet GPU is present. So the sweet spot for cores will only be 8, but on die GPUs will have 280+ threads with 480 being the power users sweet spot. Of course the on die GPU and discreet GPU will work seemlessly together regardless of brand (yeah right) allowing the discreet to power down when not needed. A quad memory controller will be the norm of course. The southbridge chip will be all but absorbed by the APU, so on die there will be 24 PCIe4 lines, 6 USB3, 6 SATA4 and 2 lightpeak (intel only). MBs will only come with small third party chips to add extra features like ATA, PCI, and or audio plus extra USB3, etc if wanted. Just like how long floppies hung on there will still be dvd/bluray drives but they'll be all but useless with digital delivery being the norm. The big suprise in 1015 will be the Nividia Via partnership with the aim of producing they're own APU to compete with Intel and AMD. Of course DDR4 will be the main memory standard. But Intel will be triumphing the advantage of a new memory standard that takes advantage of the on die lightpeak they offer.
As for the 1015 Dream Machine:
A Limited edition dual APU board for 16 core goodness made by MSIGigabyte (many MB manufactures mereged due to the new lines of APUs). Running the Intel ie10 81500K which will overclock well past 6Ghz on air so MAXPC will hit 7Ghz+ on water. Except there will of course be stablity problems with the dual APU set up so they'll settle on a 6.2 OC. Two Nivida 99's will fit the bill for discreet goodness each having 4Gigs of GDDR7 memory clocked at an effective 5Ghz. The GPU's will run at 1Ghz with the 1028 cores running at 1.8Ghz. AMD's XT10s almost made it in but there's just not many available. To fill all 8 memory channels the "Beast" as it's affectionately called will have 8 8Gig sticks for 64Gigs. Of course Win9.5 will only use 48 but what the hey. It will feature a Intel supplied 750Gb SSD using lightpeak which Gord will call "gimmicky" and two 5 TB HD's in RAID0 effective spindle speed 10,500 (HD companies will try to compete with SSDs by cranking up the spindle speeds) Of course the normal mouse and keyboard will be standard but the big star will be the 36" DLP curved 3D monitor (no glasses due to the curve focusing the view) which is touch sensitive as well. The price will be the national debt's interest payment for around 5 seconds, but will cost one 100th of that when the 2016 DM rolls out.
livebriand
July 09, 2011 at 4:20pm
Hmm... 4 years ago a Core 2 Duo 2.x CPU and 2GB RAM, as well as a 250GB HD, was fairly typical. Now, a i5 2.x Ghz CPU and 4GB RAM, as well as a 1TB HD, is fairly typical. Today, a high-end machine might mean a i7 3.x GHz CPU and 8GB RAM, as well as a 2TB HD and 256GB SSD and dual GPUs.
I'd say that in the future we'll likely have an 8-core 3.x GHz CPU that includes graphics on the chip, aka APU (notice how clock speeds haven't really increased in the past few years? too much heat!) and 16GB or 32GB DDR4 3000MHz RAM, as well as an 8TB HD and a 1TB SSD and dual GPUs that can also simultaniously use the apu's integrated graphics in a SLI/Crossfire configuration. Note: I don't mean the best possible config, I'm talking about regular high-end. Oh, and USB 3.0 all around (except for the keyboard and mouse maybe) and SATA 3 or 4, as well as DisplayPort and maybe HDMI (no DVI or legacy VGA). Also, no optical drive, as Windows will be distributed via a thumb drive and software will all be distributed via the internet, and all video and music will be from the internet (amazon mp3, itunes store, netflix, etc), so you won't need it. I imagine it'll be the same size as a computer from today (full ATX case that is). After all, in the past several years, PC case sizes generally haven't changed. In fact, my i5 system has a case from 2003 that used to house a Pentium 4 machine. (it's mid-ATX) I do predict that the system a few years from now might have a 1KW or 1.5KW PSU though (thanks a lot power hungry GPUs). Finally, toss in a few eSATA ports for good measure. It'll likely run a 64-bit OS. (32-bit ones hung around for nearly a decade and a half, from windows 95, to the early days of Windows 7). I also predict PCI-E to still be around, though maybe a new revision or two of it. You can't really use light for stuff like that, as it needs to be converted to electrical signals to be used, right? That'd be inefficient. If I understand correctly, it's only in a cable, where you have a LOT of length, where that'd be useful. Also, the system will be able to dynamically turn off cores as well as make its' clock speed really low when idle, on both the CPU and GPU. The GPU will be able to disable some of them (if you have sli/crossfire) to save energy if idle, perhaps using only the apu's graphics.
Seriously, big brakethroughs CAN happen, but some of you guys are going a little too far in my opinion. After all, a Core 2 Duo from 4 years ago isn't that out of date by today's standards. Heck, Apple still sells them in new computers! :D
Keith E. Whisman
July 09, 2011 at 3:05pm
That's a trick question. The Earth is going to be long gone by 2015. The Earth is scheduled for destruction in December 2012, didn't you get the memo? Who cares about 2015 anything, we aren't going to be here.
Supermonkey
July 09, 2011 at 2:32pm
I really don't think there's going to be that much change in the graphic cards situation.
It's still in it's infancy.Still has so far to go.
boodiespost
July 09, 2011 at 11:31am
Guys, can you also do a prediction for a regular machine in 2015 as well as the dream machine? Why? Because no one will be able to afford one. So lets get practical. What would an average machine be like.
iceman08
July 09, 2011 at 6:40pm
regular machine for 2015: i5 CPU (or its equivalent) with integrated graphics. a couple usb 3.0 ports. an SSD will be cheap enough to be the OS drive standard in such machines
aarcane
July 09, 2011 at 11:09am
Processor cores measured geometrically, either 2 or 3 dimensions. you might include an AMD Phenotype 3 4 5, 3 cores wide, 4 cores deep, and 5 cores high. all clocked at a conservative 2.3ghz, and capable to overclock to 4.5 without breaking a sweat.. or an intel core i^3, 2250, which is 4^3 clocked at a comfortable 2.5Ghz and can overclock to 5 with air.. the next processor up, the core i^3 3370 will have an array of 5^3, or 125 cores, and cost an inordinate 225. not worth it when the 2250 is $110, and is already too expensive.
dracx619
July 09, 2011 at 9:57am
alex, you probably get this a lot but you look like shaun from boy meets world. on the predictions side...it all sounds juicy. heres to the future!
illusionslayer
July 08, 2011 at 8:34pm
No Quantum predictions? Sad Panda.
On the serious side: Haswell + Maxwell = HasMax Well^2 = Awesome coincidence.
joeyjr
July 08, 2011 at 6:51pm
Light Peak and fiber optics cabling, 12 cores with hyperthreading and physics processing. dual core GPUs on the 22 nano meter process. ddr 5 dims and ddr 6 for graphics. chipset having high end graphics thats switchable. lol
erriwin
July 08, 2011 at 6:22pm
I'm betting on some huge breakthroughs to come - four years is a LOOOOONNNNNGGGG time in PC land. I'm guessing 24+ core, less then 14nm (Intel already announced 14nm in 2014), also I believe memory is going to have a huge breakthrough soon - something close to 1tb, all SSD, 3d no glasses, at least 4k, possibly 6 or 8k...
iceman08
July 08, 2011 at 5:26pm
I wonder if there will be a technological leap into quantum computing
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