Murphy's Law: Is Linux Really at a One Percent Adoption Rate?

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opensuse 11.1

Linux has more than a 1% market share.  Considering every market share is a for an OS that was purchased or for a OS machine that a support fee was paid for.  With Linux however that is not measurable in reality for two reasons.  First reason is the market share of computers that were orginally a MS machine but has then been made a duel-boot with a linux distro or only a linux machine.  While the next reason this can not be measured is for the open source reason, for every "purchased" version of linux how many machine will the company run without a license or without customer service contracts? 

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einstein1971

Murphey, this might be a great time for you to predict that 2009 is finally the year of Linux on the desktop (unlike your predictions in 2007 and 2008).  Especially since you predicted that the Netbook growth would fuel this trend (oh wait, XP now owns 90% of that market--up for 0% 18 months ago and Windows 7 is built for Netbooks and Linux Netbooks are returned at a rate of 4 to 1 compared to WinXP netbooks). 

I think the one thing you finally got right was keep an eye on Apple...except Microsoft totally stole that "I'm a PC" campaign from them...

The server market--that's it!  Linux will rule servers...except Windows is growing at a faster rate on the server than Linux.  Well crap.  Never mind--Linux sucks, long live Linux!

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TheMurph

I was actually quoting a Bloomberg piece that predicted the growth of Linux on the netbooks -- citing sources ! = making predictions.  Here's another source: ARM-based netbooks released later this year, all running Linux, will help Linux netbooks eat up one-third of the market this year.  In that article, you'll also find a healthy refutation of the Linux netbook return rate issue.

As for the server market, Gartner expects Windows Server sales to jump from $20 billion last year to $22 billion by 2012.  And Linux?  Sales are expected to increase from $9 billion last year to $12 billion by 2012.  Yep.  Windows is totally crushing Linux in the server market.  And on a listing of the world's most powerful computers, Windows is just charging right toward the finish line.

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Terabit

Murphy is a beast! 

 2X EVGA GeForce GTX 285 1GB (Each) | Intel Core i7 920 | OCZ Gold 6GB DDR3 1600 | Asus P6T Deluxe V2 Mobo | Seagate Barracuda 1TB HD | Corsair 850watt PSU | Antec Twelvehundred Black Full Tower Case | Asus VW246H Black 24" 2ms Monitor |

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einstein1971

I work with Gartner data daily (and they are usually wrong).  Predictions, whether from one source or another, are just guesses based on selected bits of data...but at the end of the day they are still guesses.  Here is the best way to determine if Linux is viable as a desktop OS for the masses: what have the masses done when given a choice?  Well, 90% of them went with WIndows over Linux.  True it's not 100% but when given a choice of the best Linux has to offer OR an 8 year old OS from Microsoft 9 out 10 consumers went with good old XP.  But wait, here's my prediction!  I'll base my prediction on your past success rate (something around zero I believe).  I predict when Windows 7 comes out in October consumers will buy it over Linux every time.  Now I know you and the other zealots of the press will write your negative articles in which you are objectively ignoring the facts in order to fulfill your emotional need to strike out against Redmond but at the end of the day Microsoft will win.  Not because they are sooo big but because people will choose their product over anybody elses.

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einstein1971

My mistake: I was quoting you in previous MaxPC articles.  I'll never do that again!

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TheMurph

Actually, you aren't quoting me at all.  The part about "2009 will be the year of linux" was actually an article by Robert Strohmeyer, which you can find here.  And here's a comment you left earlier on MPC's website discussing the identical point you're trying to make in your comments on this post.

I mean, if you want to debate Linux and Microsoft, that's cool.  But don't insinuate that I'm saying things that I'm not -- I'm no Microsoft or Linux supporter; I have no vested interest in which platform "wins out" in the end.

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jihnn

but to quote someone that actually had the cohonies to build a computer out of cardboard...... well you may not want to put your rep on the line without doing a little resurch first

 

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almax

a bunch of guys talking about how cool they think a cake photo is,

is all the example that is needed.

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mesiah

This article seemed a little disjointed to me. I'm not exactly sure what point you were really trying to drive home. But as far as the 1% being effected by the enterprise market, I don't think it would have that big of an effect on the overall numbers. How many servers does the average large scale company run? Then compare that to how many windows based workstations they are running.

I'm sure this article will spawn a multitude of fanboy flame wars, and before that starts I would like to point out that there is really no reason to fight over which is better. If you want to relate it to something easier to wrap your mind around, Linux is like a pumped up camaro or mustang. The average joe just doesn't understand all the intricacies, but they can't deny that its a badass machine. Its not without its problems, but when they occur, people have already worked out fixes for them and they are easy to come by. Windows on the other hand is more like a lexus. Its got a high pricetag. Plenty of bells and whistles, but not really the type that the camaro and mustang guys are interested in. It's not as lean and mean as the camaro, but when it breaks down you call the dealership instead of dealing with it yourself, and (hopefully) they solve the problem for you. They both have their advantages, and one is very much better than the other, depending on what type of person you are.

Now, Fanboy flame wars gogogo!

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eMJayy

If you look at NetApplication's proposed market share figures for the mac, it's at 9.7%. That's impossible. There's no way that the mac has a 9.7% GLOBAL market share. Apple doesn't sell enough machines worldwide to ever get that amount of global share. In fact, Apple is barely in the top 10 global vendors (last time I checked, it was #9 and had a global market share of over 3%). The number 5 global vendor, Toshiba, only has 4% global market share. That 9.7% figure, however, is much closer to the US market share figure for the mac, which indicates that NetApplication's results are heavily skewed towards the North American market, where most of the world's macs can be found. At most, the 1% figure only represents North America.

What's really important about Linux is that it's improving its desktop usability at a remarkable rate now. As a result, there may come a time when a few of the distros shed the geek label for good. There's still some way to go, but the reality is that it's having an impact. It brought us netbooks and is the only reason why Microsoft is currently bending over backwards to support the platform. Microsoft would like nothing more than to kill netbooks (it's reducing their revenue) but they can't, because Linux would take it over again if they withdrew support. 

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ferds7

I've always wondered about the use of pictures on here. Do you somehow get permission from all these people or just swipe em knowing the odds of them finding out are relatively low or is there some legal thing I'm missing.

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bingojubes

Where did you find that cake? I gonna save that pic so i can get a cake like that.

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TheMurph

From an online cake retailer known as the "Google Images Search."

Please don't ask how many pictures I had to go through in order to find one as awesome as this.

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TheMurph

Oh, right, the URL:

http://www.cakecentral.com/cake-photo_1297484.html

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demosthenes

 That is a delicious looking cake, is everything on it edible (aside from the #1 candle of course)?

 ____________________

.a nut for a jar of tunA

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