Future Tense: Letting Go of Yesterday's Tomorrows
Posted 10/29/09 at 03:00:00 PM by David Gerrold
Editor's Note: We're very pleased to welcome David Gerrold, an acclaimed and prolific science fiction writer, to Maximum PC as a regular columnist. David, best known for his numerous contributions to Star Trek and Star Trek: The Next Generation, will share his thoughts on topics including the influence of science fiction on technology, the develop of tech trends, and notable technologists.
I try not to tell people I write science fiction. Too often, that turns into a conversation I don’t want to have: “Dude, it’s already ten past 2000. Where’s my flying car? Where’s my jetpack? Where’s my Lunar colony?”
This is "The Y2K Meme," the idea that the future was supposed to start in the year 2000 and we forgot to build it. And of course, because science fiction writers (allegedly) predicted all these glorious futures, it’s our responsibility to explain why it didn’t happen.
This meme began at least a century ago. The father of modern science fiction, Hugo Gernsback, made specific predictions about the future, everything from motorized roller skates to night baseball. Within a short time, many science fiction writers were functioning as futurists, telling tales of fabulous technologies to come.

Hugo Gernsback, the "Father of Science Fiction"
Heinlein wrote about cell phones and waldos, dilating doors and roads that roll, even atomic powered rockets traveling to the moon and Mars. Asimov told us about wall-sized 3D televisions and robots. Arthur C. Clarke predicted communication satellites and space stations. And my personal favorite, Murray Leinster wrote about a worldwide computer network used for shopping, entertainment, and education. Many of these technologies were pegged to specific dates in the forseeable future, so by the mid-fifties, it was generally accepted that the year 2000 would be a brave new world.
What we really missed is that the future creeps up on us one day at a time, like raising the temperature of the water one degree at a time so the lobster won’t notice. (I think the lobster notices, I really do, but that’s a different conversation.)
But it’s now obvious that the future stands firmly rooted in the past that produced it. Instead of the future we predicted, we got the future we built. And the future we built is a lot more functional than the one we dreamt.
Doors open for us automatically. Cars map the route to our destination and tell us how long it will take to get there. We watch movies on wall-sized screens with multi-channel sound. We talk to people all over the world on phones that fit in our pockets. Our three-pound computers have more processing power than all the computers that existed in the year 1970 combined. Our notebooks give us video chats and our cameras take movies and stills with resolution equal to or better than film. We have global access to an unlimited library of entertainment, movies, music, books, and educational material. We have medical devices that do full-body scans. We use lasers for almost everything — to read and write data on discs, to cut, to cauterize, to burn, to measure, to scan, and best of all, to tease the hell out of cats.

Okay, we don’t have rolling roads, dilating doors, jet packs, or flying cars. Why not?
Because they’re not cost effective, they’re not practical. They don’t give us utility. Technological possibility is not the same as practicality. Prediction does not guarantee production.
Part of the geek-appeal of the original Star Trek television series was that much of what it portrayed about the future was based on practicality. (Thank Gene Roddenberry, Bob Justman, Dorothy Fontana, and Gene L. Coon.) The starship’s computer understood human speech and responded with appropriate information. The doors of the Enterprise always opened for an approaching person (unless the grip forgot to pull the cord in time). Communicators flipped open and gave you instant access from anywhere. Medical beds gave real-time reports on patient health. Those were things that were understandable, desirable, and ultimately build-able.

During the first two years of the series, Star Trek’s production offices regularly received letters from people who wanted to implement the future portrayed. Architects asked where they could get sliding doors like the ones seen on the show for buildings they were currently designing. Medical engineers wanted to study sick bay’s med-beds. The US Navy came by to study the starship’s bridge. Two engineers watched an episode that showed a data stored on large silver disks (vinyl records painted silver) and began to speculate on how to store data optically; five years later, they demonstrated the first laserdisc player, the forerunner of all optical disc storage. And while the ships computer was under-used in most episodes, it certainly understood human speech well enough to be useful.
But the technology that surrounds us today, whether inspired by Star Trek or not, the things listed here (and a whole lot more) moved from the realm of prediction into the domain of production because a lot of smart people saw the value of researching, designing, and building the technology.
And that’s the point. The future we built is the future we built because this is the future we really wanted to build. Science fiction is great for imagining possibilities. Inevitabilities are something else entirely.
David Gerrold is a Hugo and Nebula award-winning author. He has written more than 50 books, including "The Man Who Folded Himself" and "When HARLIE Was One," as well as hundreds of short stories and articles. His autobiographical story "The Martian Child" was the basis of the 2007 movie starring John Cusack and Amanda Peet. He has also written for television, including episodes of Star Trek, Babylon 5, Twilight Zone, and Land Of The Lost. He is best known for creating tribbles, sleestaks, and Chtorrans. In his spare time, he redesigns his website, www.gerrold.com
I totally agree...
Submitted by JohnP on Sat, 10/31/2009 - 1:21pm
I think the biggest "oops" in science fiction was the "giant manned ships" theme that was assumed to be a given.
From "heighliners" to "federation starships", the thought was to build BIG. The 1950's and 60's were a time of building big: huge aircraft carriers, huge B52 bombers, tall skyscrapers, huge atomic power plants, large orbiting satellites, moon bases, space stations, and the space shuttles. These “BFF’s” are slowly disappearing one by one. Why?When science fiction was being written, the writers had to try to make the future believable to hold their readers attention. “And then GOD built an asteroid base” would be a big cheat! Writers had to try to extrapolate the future from their present technologies. Thus the “if it’s big now, then they will be bigger in the future” was a given. But just the exact opposite is happening.
I remember reading early Heinlein and his “slipstick (slide rule) space ship navigation”. He really had no clue that slide rules would totally disappear in less than 5 years. Watches? Who in their right minds would expect WATCHES to change into cheap, incredibly accurate digital devices. Phones in the palm of your hand? Star Trek communicators were supposed to be in the 2200’s!
Shrinking and more powerful technologies completely flipped the “bigger is better”. The big stuff is proving to be grossly inefficient (save for container ships). The space shuttle is an anachronism from the cold war. Giant bombers are being replaced by small unmanned planes that cost nothing in comparison to a B1 bomber. The space station astronauts do more maintenance than science. Telecommuting is a hell of a lot more efficient than traveling to NYC and going up 50 stories to your office. The best science of Mars will not be done by a grossly expensive manned mission but by dozens of cheap(er) dedicated robotic probes.
Science fiction is adapting but most near future science fiction still extrapolates the future from present technology. The future is just too hard to predict!
PS: Flying cars? I am glad THAT never happened!
Now for the real question.....
Submitted by quadt on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 10:28am
Where is the paperless office? ;) Seriously though.... today we should be more paperless than what we are. Go e-readers!
Great article! It helped put things in a different perspective for me. We all know that we've advanced a lot in the last 30 years, but yes it happened one day at a time and crept up on us; that's how it works.
Its funny how we can get so frustrated at/with technology now because our needs/wants/requirements change so rapidly. If you were given the same technology 20 years ago that we take for granted today we'd think it was magic.
No Paperless Office Ever... because of
Submitted by Biceps on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 11:00am
The WONDERFUL, the FANTASIC, Sarbanes-Oxely Act. Courtess of your favorite accountants' lobby group.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarbanes%E2%80%93Oxley_Act
So, there will probably never, ever, be a paperless office - at least as long as there are accountants and auditors.
This article was great - I always wondered why we didn't have flying cars until I realized the seriousness of changing the acronym DUI to FUI (flying while intoxicated). Imagine the horror of New Year's Eve if everyone had a flying car!
Star Trek Eugenics Wars
Submitted by SmackBlob on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 7:01pm
Dude, where's my frickin' Eugenics Wars of the 1990's!???!!!?
Thumbs up!
Submitted by 1337Goose on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 3:19pm
Thumbs up! This article was a good read.
~Goose
Welcome! I like it, very
Submitted by quickone on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:39pm
Welcome! I like it, very nice column, fits in well with MPC and us who come here to read.
~~The difference between insanity and genius is merely succes~~
thanks!
Submitted by stige on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:35am
an enjoyable column. it made me think of Heinlin's Starship Troopers (the book, not the PoS movie) and the progress the military is making with human exoskeletons and automated war machines.
i wish humanity would collectively yearn and work a bit more to encourage, reward and cultivate personal responisiblity, too. i guess that sort of semi-utopian societywon't be here until star date 1843.2. when it's not, i know who to blame!
*claps* the future past is
Submitted by nekollx on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:12am
*claps* the future past is a tricky beast. I mean I'm writing a novel penned in 2004, set in 1993 and the team geek is geing excited about "portable digital media, like a cd player only with no CD!" and it blows the minds of his friends. Then he talks about stores Gigabytes of data on these mini drives (back in a time a 1.3mb email would be considered "large" and "broadband" was a 56kbps modem.
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Five teenagers, one alien ghost, a robot, and the fate of the world.
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