In a rare example of limb-crawling, Intel’s technical marketing manager recently made 10 predictions for the next 10 years. But he didn’t crawl very far. Most predictions were boring references to long-standing development projects at Intel and elsewhere.
“Realistic computer-generated images.” (Hey, Intel, we’ve already got that.) “New classes of portable devices with 10 times more battery life.” (Who else saw that coming?) “Personal Internet devices will be truly personal.” (Like I’ve been saying for years.) “Low-cost silicon photonics for faster, more reliable data transmission.” (Intel and many others have been working on that technology forever.)
Nevertheless, two predictions are interesting. The boldest was “Malware will become a thing of the past.” The idea is that microprocessors will incorporate security features to stop malicious software from attacking the operating system and application software. It’ll be like a Roach Motel for malware—bugs crawl in, but they won’t crawl out.
Bold as it may seem, that prediction is an extension of well-worn technology. For decades, many processors have been able to protect regions of memory from unauthorized accesses. Operating systems have long been able to run in a privileged mode that lets them perform operations forbidden to regular apps. These features have improved over the years, and they will keep improving. Will they ever make malware impossible? I doubt it. The weakest link is still the user. We need a Moore’s Law for brains.
Another Intel prediction: “Interactive computing devices make ‘composable computing’ a reality.”
The concept is that different wireless devices in close proximity could be linked to share data and computational resources. You could download a video to your iPod and beam it to an HDTV, wirelessly and effortlessly. Some digicams can already share photos wirelessly with PCs and printers, so this prediction isn’t exactly a stretch goal.
Even so, anything that improves interoperability is fine with me. I’ve been computing since the 1970s and have a junk box of obsolete cables you wouldn’t believe.
Tom Halfhill was formerly a senior editor for Byte magazine and is now an analyst for Microprocessor Report.
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