AMD on the Rise, but is the Company Poised to Fall?
AMD on the Rise, but is the Company Poised to Fall?
Posted 04/16/2007 at 2:28pm
| by Paul "One4yu2c" Lilly
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Out of 25 chip suppliers, AMD now ranks 8th according to market research firm iSuppli, a significant leap from 15th just two years ago. And thanks in part to the ATI acquisition, sales are on the rise too, nearly double from last year. Even Dell has broken their longstanding embargo, with some of their configurations now sporting AMD inside. And with Barcelona on the horizon, their quad-core future looks bright. Perhaps one day we’ll see a Green Man Group ad campaign?
But not all numbers look rosy for AMD. It’s been quite some time since the underdog was, well, an underdog, but suddenly it’s an Intel Core 2 Duo world. Need advice on a new build? Go Intel. Wondering which processor chews through the benchmarks faster? It’s Intel. Want to run two nVidia videocards in SLI? Yep, Intel can do that too, and unlike nVidia’s previous chipset attempts for big blue, 680i/650i based boards are winning the hearts of overclockers.
Those familiar with the leapfrog effect in the tech industry will shrug this off as no big deal. After all, we’ve seen this time and again; one company leaps ahead of the other with a better product, only to be outdone months later. Rinse and repeat. So what’s there to be concerned about, right? I fear it may be more than you think, but let’s first look at how AMD got here.
AMD’s been churning out chips since 1975, but it’s the K7 lineup introduced in 1999 that really propelled AMD into the limelight, particularly the eventual Barton core. While Intel boasted high clock speeds (I have fond memories of ramping up my 2.4C Northwood to a juicy 3.4GHz) and dominated the content creation landscape, AMD’s more efficient architecture, combined with aggressive price cuts, made them ideal candidates for gamers and enthusiasts alike, myself included. I still own a multiplier unlocked 2500+ Barton, a wonder chip that could not only run at 3200+ performance levels with a simple frontside bus boost, but more attractively, quickly began selling for under $100 street. With Intel unwilling to compete on the pricing front, AMD could claim victory by snagging a portion of the enthusiast sector.
Skip ahead to round two in this new era of chip wars, and Intel’s stubborn insistence on playing the gigahertz card allowed AMD to close the performance gap with the A64/K8 line. Intel’s Prescotts just required too much clockspeed to overcome the inefficiency inherent in Neburst, and even though their much more efficient mobile Pentium-M (Dothan) proved they could compete with AMD architecturally, the suits in Santa Clara preferred to tout clockspeed as the end-all-be-all. Score another victory for AMD as enthusiasts continued to flock to greener grass.
That brings us back to today, and here’s where things get interesting. If AMD was looking to attract Intel’s attention, they’ve done it. Waking out of their slumber, Intel’s Core lineup is wiping the floor with AMD, and equally important, they’re doing so at reasonable price points. I’ve got an E6300 Core 2 Duo that runs at 3.0GHz without flinching, and the chip only costs $183 on Newegg. Without the ability to significantly undercut on pricing or compete from a performance standpoint, how does AMD get enough leg strength to leapfrog back ahead? Socket AM2 brought DDR2 to the table, but not much in terms of performance, and Quad-FX turned out to be a disappointment. AMD’s running out of tricks, and they need to pull a silicon rabbit out of their hat. Early indications point to Barcelona, a chip that features four cores on a single die, but will it be enough? For the sake of competition, I sure hope so. The problem is, unlike the K7 and K8 glory days, Intel isn’t sitting idle or pushing an overpriced, dead end architecture. So while AMD can celebrate becoming the number eight chip supplier in the world, they’re still up against number one, except this time Chipzilla’s gone on the offensive.
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bcweir
February 21, 2008 at 11:50am
Sure, right NOW you're cheering about how cheap those Core 2 Duos are, and you're probably on your knees at night that AMD shutters its doors forever.
How very little people seem to learn.
What do you think will happen if AMD were to close its doors forever? Do you really think that Intel is going to keep on selling their Core 2 Duos at firesale prices if AMD wasn't selling a competing alternative?
Does anyone remember that Intel tried to hold enthusiasts hostage to their overpriced Rambus RAM back in 2001? It was double the price of DDR yet delivered only a 10 percent performance boost. All this so that Intel could force enthusiasts to buy the overpriced RAMBUS memory to run at speeds higher than 133 SDRAM. Wouldn't you Intel fanboys agree that was an enthusiast-friendly move?
Or how about Intel's statement that home consumers would have no use for a 64-bit desktop processor and continued to TRY selling their failed Itanium chip to server makers (it wasn't x86 compatible so it wouldn't run Windows, Linux, or any other popular 32 bit operating system), as well as their overheating-prone Pentium 4D. You could roast a marshmellow on the chip!
AMD brought us the 64-bit chip, a new era for us enthusiasts while dragging Intel kicking and screaming into this new world also.
I respect that everyone has their preferences, but I have a real problem with ignorant, shortsighted comments that ask for and hope for AMD to be shuttered. Competition is what keeps CPU prices low, moron. Take away competition and you take away low prices, because then Intel can charge ANYTHING they want for WHATEVER they want. And who are you going to go to if you don't want to pay $1,000 a pop for ANY Intel Core Duo.
This is Economics 101, folks. 2-year olds have figured this out ahead of you.
paintboy992
February 22, 2008 at 1:42am
I have been an Intel fan for many years but I’m completely grateful to AMD. If it wasn’t for their success, I would not be enjoying the performance enhancements and price drops that Intel has done. If AMD should fall; although I love Intel, I know they’d be the first to up their prices. I guess it’s a one sided relationship. LOL!!! I know AMD fans are getting excited about the Barcelona v. Penryn battle but remember after Penryn another challenger is coming and his name is Nehalem. COME ON AMD!!! Keep up, so Intel continues to be reasonable for us consumers.
L_M_Damiani
October 19, 2007 at 5:57am
SPECULATION - barring Fed lawsuits
NVIDIA buys out AMD and/or
INTEL buys out NVIDIA
Grump642
October 06, 2007 at 5:23pm
Rahol Sood, founder of Voodoo Computers, said that at 3Ghz Phenom "is a stone-cold killer". He also said that it will spank anything on the market today. He is not an AMD fanboy, so coming from him, this is something I find very hopefull.
SwissIsGood
August 04, 2007 at 8:13am
I've been a long time Intel fan, even when times were rough. When Intel finally came around and took back the title, I was ecstatic and filled with so much joy. Then in the past several months, a number of interesting events now have me looking at AMD as my preferred choice. First, AMD and Ati merged together. Just as I was a hard core Intel fan, I was a hard core Ati fan. (I've always believed that picture and image quality held more importance than frame rates and clock speeds.) AMD also has in it's plans some pretty good ideas. Like implementing an all-in-one CPU/Chipset/GPU, targeting lower end markets. Another is pursuing means in which to achieve greater power efficiency on their server based and portable chips targeting corporate customers. And the latest event that got my attention was the European Commission's charge against Intel for violations of the EU competition laws. In short, they claim Intel has been bribing some International customers. If they have been, this kind of attention may change things up a bit, allowing AMD a chance to grab on to more of that side of the market. SO in spite of all that is going on now, I believe AMD will still be on the rise in other parts of the industry and who knows, maybe return back to the top as leader of the gaming world as well. I still like to believe something amazing could come out of this AMD/Ati partnership. So is AMD poised to fall? I like to think that they are not.
cisco680
April 21, 2007 at 12:55pm
I have been a fan of AMD since Thunderbird. I used them exclusively for about 4 years. My last build I used an Intel. All things being equal I would prefer to use AMD but right now they just don't have comparable performance. Hopefully with Barcelona they will close the gap. We really need AMD to make it, if they fall we all lose. Competition is what drives innovation.
simple_inhibition
April 20, 2007 at 6:14am
my biggest concern for AMD right now is how will Barcelona fare against Intels Penryn core. im expecting barcelona to compete with conroe, but will it have enough steam to take on penryn? and what of intels new policy on releasing a new processor type every 2 years? AMD doesnt have the research or funds to match that. barcelona needs to be a smashing success if AMD is gonna stick around.
Quakindude
April 20, 2007 at 5:11am
I've been an AMD fanboi, Oh look! another boy with an "i" in it!, since pre-Thunderbird. AMD has always been a CPU manufacturer that appealed to the "underdog" favorer in me. However, my main rig runs a C2D chip for good reason. Intel is brining more to the performance table than AMD is. With Intel's eyes now seemingly glued open to the ways of the underdog, they could very well squash AMD back into 15th place if AMD doesn't get off their ass and start pumping out an architecture worth buying. Will Barcelona be the Holy Grail for AMD? Maybe. But if AMD thinks for one second that a single Quad-Core CPU is going to pull their silicon out of the fire before it melts, they've got some hard truths ahead of them. Intel's financial and researching capabilities have been levered against AMD. And this time, it's a lever being effectively applied.
Great write up Paul. Very thought provoking and timely.
Gamer100gs
April 16, 2007 at 7:07pm
I really think Barcelona will destroy Intel since Intel is repeating one of its major problems with Pentium 4, which was 2 cores glued together to make a lot of heat and a slow computer. We will see soon amd pull ahead again.
jey18
April 16, 2007 at 8:55pm
That's a stupid, baseless, "Hi I'm an AMD fanboi" statement. Even though the "Quad" Core that Intel has out now is not true Quad core it still dominates AMD completely. And it's definitely not a slow processor by any means. We have no real, true, hard benchmarks from 3rd parties to really know if the Barcelona core will "pull ahead again." Intel absolutely did not repeat the major problems as you claim, this only makes you look ignorant and again like a huge fanboi.
That being said, I have never used an Intel chip save for an ancient system I used as a kid. I have ALWAYS gone with AMD mostly because of the pricing, and I loved my first processor from them (3600+). And I also do hope the Barcelona core will do well, considering that it will be the first true quad core. I'm not an AMD fanboi as I don't recommend their processors exclusively, and my next build will most likely have an E6600 from intel.
But seriously, stupid comments like the one Gamer100gs made are just that... stupid. Baseless arguments make you look like an idiot.
Ceadderman
September 15, 2007 at 1:26am
AMD fanboi comment?
Pardon me but is not the current Q6600 configuration, two Core Duos' slapped together?
Ever hear that age old adage about history repeating itself? No? Well Intel has apparently not learned that adage either.
That's not fanboi that is plain and simple fact.
AMD is on the bubble in Sportsspeak but it's up to Intel to smack them down. They've done so with the Q6600 extreme but be honest about it they did what they've done in the past only this time it seems to work better than the last time.
"If at first you don't succeed... Shoot the summabiotch. Problem solved."
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