2008: Year of the Linux Desktop
PrintWhen Evans Data released its survey on Tuesday showing a sharp shift toward Linux (and away from Windows) among developers in North America, the Linux world went wild. Wistful pengiun heads heralded the coming Open Source Age. But the real measure of OS success is in the number of users, not the number of developers. After all, most of the world's PCs end up in the hands of ordinary people who have no interest in coding. Fortunately for open-source addicts, there are several signs that the coming year could bring a sea-change among end users, making 2008 the year of the Linux desktop.
There's nothing bold about pointing out that modern Linux distros have made leaps and bounds in usability in the past couple of years. A monkey could download and install Ubuntu Feisty in the time it takes most people to decide which version of Vista to drop a day's pay on. And the recent release of Fedora 7 delivered improvements in wireless support that make mobile configurations nearly idiot-proof. (Although, in my experience, nothing can withstand the sheer brute force of a complete idiot.) Now all eyes are on the upcoming releases of openSUSE 10.3 and Ubuntu 7.10, both of which will drop in October.
Meanwhile, Dell has consistently made headlines with its new Ubuntu-powered PC line. Now four models strong and selling for $50 less than their Windows-equipped counterparts, these PCs come preloaded with all necessary drivers, and offer consumers the same assurances of usability and support that they could reasonably expect from a Windows machine. Whether other major hardware vendors will follow suit remains to be seen, but the momentum is certainly gathering.
Outside of North America, we find even more dramatic signs of a coming shift in the userbase. Just this week, yet another state in India declared that it would no longer buy Windows systems, but would switch to Linux instead, spelling vast potential savings for the government and touting potential benefits to education for the populus. ZDNet Australia quoted the Kerala chief minister, justifying the state's new deal with Red Hat: “We believe that free and open-source software is an essential component in our drive to democratise information technology and bring its benefits to all sections of society.” Of course, the move is about more than democracy. Cost-effectiveness is a major driver. And while the jury is out on the long-term IT cost differences between Linux and Windows, there's no denying that Linux represents a lower outlay in licensing fees.
For end users here in North America, Linux poses a low barrier to entry. While many still balk at an upgrade to Vista (typically centered around cost and restrictive licensing terms), those who are curious about the open-source alternative will find few of these obstacles. And an increasingly rich array of ready-to-run software (not to mention surprisingly effective utilities that let you run many Windows apps) makes it easy switch.
For me, the real hitch in the switch is gaming. While Wine and other Windows compatibility utilities do a great job of running productivity apps, they have less success with the hottest new gaming titles. And as long as Windows retains its utter domination of the PC gaming scene, gamers will always need Windows PCs.
Ultimately, I'm not predicting that Linux will take over the market next year. Or anytime soon, for that matter. But if there's ever been a time to try out the world's leading free OS, 2008 will be that time. I am predicting that users will switch to Linux in record numbers next year. And many will never look back.
UPDATE (7/9/07 10:08AM PDT):
Since we're on the topic of Linux adoption statistics, here's a link to an insightful analysis of the problems inherent in counting the number of Linux users. (via /.)
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einstein1971
February 09, 2009 at 7:18am
Well, now we see that this did not happen and that according MPC that netbooks with Linux are returned 4-1. This isn't MSFT "forcing" consumers to hate Linux. It turns out it did it all by itself. Good job Linus.
THDBlake
July 08, 2007 at 11:28am
For at least a decade I've been reading about how Linux is going to make Windows or Mac obsolete. About how it's become so user friendly that the world cannot deny its presence.
Unfortunately, the truth of the matter is that Linux still sucks. It's still not user friendly. It's so forked there's no guarantee of program interoperability. Major software developers shun it because it's cost prohibitive to develop for so many diverse platforms, meaning that there's no standard Linux platform. It's a mess, as is usual for anything developed by a "community".
Somewhere along the line, many government officials have equated democracy with socialism. Time and time again we have seen that socialism doesn't work in the real world. It looks good on paper but put it into practice and it falls apart.
Community driven projects do not work for the benefit of the general population.
Lord Omega
November 04, 2008 at 2:30pm
I am a linux junky and I have had little problem with Linux. Compared ot Windows Vista, Linux is much more stable and the partchs come out more quickly. With 8.10, I have only had maybe 30 updates (that is 30 things that I needed to download with the update manager and install). Not of the updates break anything unlike what SP1 on vista did. Have you even used Linux to bein with? VBox works wondoers you know. Also, Wubi has made it even easier to install Ubuntu on Windows machines without destroying them. Also, community drive projects work better than commercial products because ot the shear number of people on them. Bugs are found quicker and fixed quicker as well. Ubuntu has huge financial backing and that makes it better than most other Linux projects out there.
xiqtem
September 02, 2008 at 5:55pm
I wouldn't think of linux as software socialism. I would think of it as a group of independat revolutionaries fed up with ineffective corporate bureaucracy. Kind of like our founding fathers ideals that lead them to the realization of their concepts. Linux isn't perfect, I have long said that for developers to realy get behind it the OS distros need to standardize there package management and file structures. This could also be bad for security, making it to easy for people to take advantage of sameness.
preachaer
November 17, 2007 at 10:26pm
Ye of little manhood. What right do you have to bash an article that could be so true. I have been using computers for over 20 years, and got fed up with the problems I faced every day. I go rid of Microshaft over two years ago and have had not problems since. Stastictically, by me research, Linux is the fasted growing os in the industry. NASA uses Unix. Why? Think blue screen. The military uses Unix in strategic maneuvers. Why? Think blue screen. Please, be not an idiot forever. Linux is moving forward. It is only a matter of time until Microsoft dwindles away. Think about something: if Microsoft was so goo, why is IBM so headstrong with RedHat? Because Microsoft sucks a whole hell of a lot more than Linux will. You are truly a myopic mugwump. Get real. Get Linux, or lose.
Adler
July 07, 2007 at 9:37pm
Adler aka JJMacey
www.jjmacey.net
Phoenix, ArizonaI've just kept rocking along for the last 4 -5 years using Linux Distros, and all those other goodies out there.
What seems to be forgotten in this "Distro War" are all those great great applications that no one is willing to talk about. Problem is they are all free.
And,far broader than any one is willing to talk about.
Any one with half a brain has got to have seen this all coming. I ran Microsoft all over the world, and ended up becoming some type of M$ IT engineer just to keep myself happy, have a "warm fuzzy feeling" that it is working without having to pay money to do something. Forget Virus protection, Web Browser, etc.
I become very, very weary, and started my own Site, on my own to promote Linux.
Free the world!
Around the World, M$ is not their partner, and can code better than anyone out there.
Want examples? Want applications?
einhverfr
July 07, 2007 at 10:25am
I find the skeptical comments quite interesting. Yes, there is absolutely no doubt that Linux will continue to increase in market share on the desktop in 2008. This is just as sure as the idea that next year will be the year after this one.
Yes, thes predictions happen every year because every year Linux eats a little more share from that market. The current market share is still very small but it is growing and will continue to do so for the foreseable future.
My network runs at 60% Linux desktops (40% Windows for cross-platform testing purposes). And Linux has been ready for most people's desktops for years (believe it or not, I migrated my parents from Windows 95 to Red Hat 6.1 and they preferred the Linux desktop after discovering how much more reliable it was).
coolzgeek
July 07, 2007 at 8:05am
Its the ubuntu thing. Everyone's moved to Ubuntu. Its also partly due to the Dell factor 'cos those folks buy their crappy products and have Ubuntu pre-installed.
JMiahMan
July 07, 2007 at 7:59am
I think it's already happening. Linux is slowly becoming a word everyone knows. Even if you aren't computer literate. It's gaining press and momentum. If you hang out at the Ubuntu Forums, PCLinuxOS Forums, Or even the SimplyMepis Forums you will see the shear number of new users who are giving Linux a try. There's thousands, but something to consider those new users will soon tell their experiences to other users. Soon enough you have a grass roots word of mouth campaign that only grows on itself. That's what it starting now and as Linux gets easier and the User experience gets better, we'll continue to see it even more. The 70s is still around but instead of free love we now have free source. It's much safer.
fnordfnord
July 07, 2007 at 4:11am
So let me get it straight: in 2008 we have "Yet Another Reason Why Linux Might Pick Up Momentum". People claimed such things in the past years over and over again. However, every time it was simply "Yet Another Year That It Didn't Happen". There is no reason why this year's YARWLMPUM would be any different. Please, as much as I'd like to see this happen myself, wake up...
Robert Strohmeyer
July 07, 2007 at 7:54am
You're perfectly right to call me on the incendiary headline. (It's deliberately so, bein' a headline and all.) But do you really believe Linux isn't picking up momentum? I'm not claiming that 2008 will be the year Linux will overtake Windows, or even OS X for that matter. That would be stupid. I do, however, think that the gradual upswell of Linux users -- which has been taking place over the past decade -- is reaching some kind of critical mass, and that it will make itself evident in the coming year. The outcome will be subtle, but definite: Of the millions who download and install Linux over the coming year, a significant number will actually keep their Linux installations up and running, rather than fiddling with a few menus and then wiping it out to reinstall Windows. Will the world remember 2008 as the year everyone ran Linux? Of course not.
BeyondCoast
July 06, 2007 at 5:24pm
Check out Cedega.
http://www.cedega.com
I've been using this for well over a year and have no complaints yet.
styryx
July 06, 2007 at 4:41pm
Don't forget that the PS3 will have Linux support. And the Cell chip is one nice thing to play on with some developer toys from sony: http://www.linuxelectrons.com/news/linux/linux-software-development-tools-released-cell-broadband-engine-microprocessor
I'll wait for it to come down in price before I get one; also, it would be nice with a bigger hd. But then I'll be get my games AND Linux fix from there. Snap.
nedwards
July 05, 2007 at 7:40pm
As you hinted, I think we're at a magical place where Linux usability is greater than ever before at the same time that most people are Vista-skeptical. And although Microsoft is sort of maybe going somewhere with Games for Windows, at the end of the day I'd rather save the money, dual-boot XP and Ubuntu, and grab a 360 for newer games. Why drop a few grand on a rig when most of the good new games are on 360 anyway, and my Mobility X1400 will run my old games just fine? Especially given Will's troubles with Halo 2 for PC. Requiring Vista for a 3-year-old port is, to quote another frustrated gamer, "worse than reading YouTube comments!"
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